First breath of cold

There is such a Russian proverb, which has even become, as they say, a hackneyed cliché: trouble does not come alone.

And yet, quite recently, it would seem that the recently exemplary prosperous both economically and socially, and, one might say, almost a showcase European subcontinent, now somehow quite painfully and concretely felt this.

Not only is its own economy taking revenge on it both for the loss of political sovereignty (and economic sovereignty, as it turns out, does not exist without political sovereignty), and for the committed (in a certain sense of the word) indicatively unreasonable “sanction policy” against, in fact, , own resource base represented by Russian oil and gas industries.

So also nature began to frankly take revenge for the no less obvious continuing stupidity of the “green transition policy”: unfortunate Europe is either washed away by floods, or tormented by unusual frost, or, as now, is frightened by unprecedented heat.

For which Europe, as it suddenly turned out, turned out to be so revealingly and totally unprepared that for some reason it painfully reminded many of the late Soviet Union and the Russian Federation of the era of the “democratic reforms of the 1990s”.

Where every winter and summer were, damn it, a real traditionally unpredictable surprise.

What can you do, there is such an old truth: you have to live long in Russia.

And in general in this world there is nothing particularly new under the sun.

However, let's go in order.

Indeed, there is quite an abnormal heat on the territory of the European subcontinent now: a temperature of about +40 ° C, which melts the brain of any normal person, is quite ordinary for the European Region today.

Why rivers become shallow and forests and crops burn, and people do not crawl out from under the air conditioners.

Well, judging by the television picture, the unfortunate European policemen, judging by the television picture, especially those who are overweight (in terms of body-positive in Europe, there are plenty of such people), it is just right to give out a tropical uniform with pith helmets: fortunately, the contingent on the streets fully corresponds to this standard.

In short, Europe is hot.

In some cities, asphalt is melting (in the literal sense of the word).

Accordingly, the consumption of electricity also increases sharply.

The connection here is quite direct: air conditioning for many, especially for the elderly and people with chronic diseases, is a banal opportunity to survive.

And this is somehow, sorry, rather stupid not to understand.

We don’t even talk about production, many of which in modern conditions require a special temperature regime - everything is already very clear here.

It is enough to look at the official figures of the so-called industrial inflation in Europe (they are in the public domain) - more than 36%.

It's a sentence, sorry.

And here it should be remembered that with a lag of about three months, this industrial inflation will inevitably move to the level of consumer inflation - these are, in general, the basics.

That is, the current industrial inflation is the key to a rapid rise in prices in the fall.

We can say the first breath of cold weather.

Greetings from the imminently approaching winter.

But that's not all.

If mainland Europe last winter (despite spot market chicanery and London-based ICE financial speculators orchestrating a convoluted price rally in subcontinental gas markets) lived more or less comfortably thanks to long contracts with Russia's Gazprom, which implied a predominantly oil pricing formula, now the picture will be somewhat different: despite the fact that the specific details of the contracts of the Russian gas giant with its partners from the EU are not disclosed, it can be assumed (simply based on the general pricing principles regulated by the EU) that the prices for Russian gas for wholesale buyers in Europe will be consistent with the current (July) ultra-high price levels on the spot exchange.

Moreover, this will happen with a lag in about the same three months,

That is, we are in a hurry to congratulate everyone, just in time for the start of the European heating season.

And note that these are no longer predictions, but a mathematically accomplished fact.

Which will not cancel, for example, even the hasty launch of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by Germany.

No, the launch of Nord Stream 2 will certainly be able to somehow dampen the peaks and prevent completely overheating and collapse due to a shortage of goods.

But it’s almost impossible to win back the numbers, percentages and other pricing mechanisms written in black and white in contracts.

What's the funniest thing here is that while Europe is still arriving, sorry for the slang, it's not a "response to sanctions" (here you don't need to exaggerate your role in the history of the global economic crisis).

No, the “response on sanctions”, of course, will inevitably arrive: too many stupid things have been done, which, in dynamics, are already a bit too late to correct.

Russia will not even need to introduce retaliatory restrictions here.

But a little later.

So far, only the loss of sovereignty in the field of gas pricing is “flying” to continental Europe, the beginning of which was laid by the “reformist” team of the Latvian European Commissioner for Energy Andris Piebalgs under the strict guidance of advisers - of course, from the UK mainly - back in 2004-2010.

When the transfer of pricing from the “oil price formula” to “exchange and market mechanisms” was invented and thought out, as it were.

Here are just those established by a strange coincidence not in the largest consumer and wholesale buyer of gas in Germany, but in distant foggy London, on the ICE exchange, offended by speculators from the City, like sticky tape in the summer in a village with dung flies.

With the invaluable help of bureaucrats from Brussels, of course.

From which London itself, we recall, quite safely gave slippers during Brexit.

But, apparently, he did not stop steering in certain offices in Brussels.

And therefore, when Annalena Burbock, who is good because if anyone has a practical and sober mind, then this sweet girl immediately has it on her tongue, says that her team tried with all her might to convince Canadians to return the turbine first to the German Siemens, and then to the Russian Gazprom, because, we quote, “otherwise Germany will not be able to receive gas and subsequently help Ukraine, as it will deal with major social unrest,” she did not panic at all and did not even fantasize.

She does not provide this functionality simply by the service instruction.

Yes, and nothing.

It's just that in Europe, languishing from the heat, it seems that the icy breath of the upcoming cold winter is slowly beginning to be felt.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.