Who will compete with Erdogan in the upcoming presidential elections?

Almost a year away from the elections in Turkey, the country is experiencing an election climate with all its dimensions of competition, polarization, rivalries, and political and media skirmishes, but there remains a very important question that has not found a satisfactory answer, which is who will run against the Turkish president this time.

different elections

With the passage of time, the chances of early elections in Turkey are declining, and the ruling Justice and Development Party is still waiting for the fruits of its economic policies, which it says will begin to appear tangibly in the first quarter of next year.

This makes holding elections this year unlikely, as the party prefers to hold them in better economic conditions to convey a message to the voter that government policies are beginning to bear fruit and reduce his daily burdens.

Therefore, in the absence of any sudden developments - such as an economic crisis that makes the future worse than the present, for example - it is not expected that the elections will be very early, so they will remain on their date in June 2023, except for the possibility of them coming early a few weeks to avoid the summer season and vacations in order to ensure the widest possible participation in the elections.

It is self-evident to say that presidential elections are more important than parliamentary elections, because the country is governed by a presidential system, and on the other hand, because President Erdogan himself is the main focus of polarization in these elections, around which opinions are divided and alliances and counter-alliances are crystallized.

These elections are taking place in a totally different atmosphere from the two previous contests, in 2014 and 2018, which President Erdogan won with remarkable ease and in the first round.

The other option is to present an obscure figure who has no political ambition, specifically the name "technocrats" from within the state bureaucracy, who is remarkably politically unaligned to one of the parties.

This proposal is present on the "Six Table", as it presents an independent figure far from the six parties, and signs with it prior pledges on how to run the country - with its help and participation - in the event of victory, within the framework of a transitional period to return later to the parliamentary system.

It will be organized according to a system of different alliances this time, as the opposition "People" coalition that ran in the previous elections joined with two new parties to form the "Six Table" that coordinates the return of the country to the parliamentary system.

On the other hand, the large parties - including the Justice and Development Party and the Republican People - have fragmented and new parties have emerged from their cloak, but this time headed by former senior leadership figures in the two parties and the government, specifically the former Prime Minister (and Chairman of the Justice and Development Party) Ahmed Davutoglu and former Minister Ali Babacan and 2018 presidential candidate Muharrem Ince.

It will also take place in light of the noticeable decline in the popularity of Justice and Development, for the above and other reasons, as well as the decline in support for Erdogan, albeit to a lesser extent, of course.

As well as the significant impact of economic problems on the internal political scene, electoral campaigns and the opinions of voters in a remarkable way.

Finally, it is different because there is a greater possibility this time that some opposition parties will gather on a consensus candidate to compete with Erdogan, which - if it happens - will increase his chances of competing and possibly winning.

A large number of opinion polls conducted recently, which serve to refer to the results rather than to confirm the results, clearly show that the name of the candidate competing with Erdogan (and thus his party, background and ideas) plays a major role in determining his chances of competition.

Therefore, so far, several possible names have been proposed to compete with the Turkish president, led by opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, former President Abdullah Gul, former President of the Supreme Constitutional Court Hashim Kılıç, and some political leaders. other, and many non-partisan figures.

Who will compete with Erdogan?

When talking about Erdogan's potential candidates in the upcoming presidential elections, attention and discussions usually turn to the traditional opposition, specifically the Republican People's Party and the opposition coalition or the "Table of Six" as it is currently called, but they are not the only source of competitors.

Some other parties are not affiliated with the six-party framework that brings together the major opposition parties, and it is not likely that they will join it before the elections;

So it is more likely to present its own party candidate.

At the forefront of these parties is the Peoples' Democratic Party, which faces the threat of ban due to a lawsuit filed against it before the Constitutional Court, as well as the "Al-Balad" party headed by Muharrem Ince, who will likely present the latter as a presidential candidate.

With regard to the traditional opposition or the "table of six", there are two possible paths, the ability to entrench behind a consensual candidate supported by these parties, or to go to elections with several candidates.

In theory, presenting a consensual candidate seems a logical choice for the opposition;

It maximizes its chances of winning, but this logic is precisely the main reason for its inability to date to reach a consensual candidate, and will most likely prevent it from reaching him at all.

The six opposition parties come from diverse and sometimes contradictory backgrounds and tendencies, and are mainly united by Erdogan's competition and the idea of ​​returning to the parliamentary system, but this has not yet bridged the trust gap between them.

In light of the fact that any consensual candidate would have an acceptable chance to compete and win under a presidential system that gives the president very broad powers that are difficult to define by Parliament and the judiciary or both, caution becomes the master of the situation between these parties so that they do not want to be just a bridge to the arrival of one of them - through His candidate - for the presidency - with all these powers, to deny later - in an existing possibility - all the previous path.

For this reason, it will not be possible to present a prominent political name, especially the heads of the parties, as a consensus candidate for the opposition, as this will mean the victory of one of the parties, not the entire opposition.

On the other hand, the fortunes of most of the well-known names circulating in the competition have declined today, led by Kılıçdaroğlu himself, who many, including his allies, believe that his (Republican People's) party, his (Alawite) sect, and his history (his previous presidency of the Health Insurance Corporation) stand in the way of his victory.

He was represented by the mayor of Greater Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, who gave a weak performance and a supremacist speech in more than one event and crisis that afflicted the city during the past months, to the extent that opposition media outlets were on his side and criticized him recently on the sidelines of the torrential rains that affected the city.

The other option within this path is to present an obscure figure who has no political ambition, specifically the name "technocrats" from within the state bureaucracy, who is remarkably politically unaligned with one of the parties.

This proposal is present on the "Six Table", as it presents an independent figure far from the six parties, and signs with it prior pledges on how to run the country - with its help and participation - in the event of victory, within the framework of a transitional period to return later to the parliamentary system.

The challenges of this path lie in the possibility of finding a truly independent figure at the same distance from all parties, but at the same time known and able to compete with Erdogan, as well as ensuring that the situation does not change after the election results in the event of victory.

As for the second context, it is the unwillingness or ability to present a consensual candidate, which would mean a large number of candidates competing with Erdogan.

The main reason for this, in addition to the factor of low confidence that was explained above, is the interest of parties - especially new and small ones - in presenting their own candidate, as this serves the chances of the party itself in the parliamentary elections.

Therefore, the head of the Future Party, Ahmet Davutoglu, announced his intention to run for the presidency “unless the six-table agrees on a consensual candidate,” and the Democratic and Progress Party said that it would run in the elections individually and in its name and slogan “while remaining committed to the six table,” and so on.

Even the leader of the "Good" party, Meral Aksener, who has long said that she will not run for the presidential elections - as in 2018 - because of her desire to be the "Prime Minister under the next parliamentary system", there are talks about the possibility of her candidacy after Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's chances of being a consensual candidate declined. or on behalf of her party.

The fact that the presidential elections will most likely need a run-off is the most thing that makes the heads of parties, especially the large ones, cling to the candidacy, a desire from each of them to be the candidate who will compete against Erdogan in the run-off, and in an effort to win the votes of all the opposition parties against him to ensure victory .

In summary, the scene appears blurry among the opposition parties regarding potential candidates to challenge the Turkish president.

It is true that some are due to a deliberate strategy of not giving Erdogan enough time to attack the competitor and weaken his chances, but the main and real reason is the unwillingness/ability of these parties to agree until this moment.

Which is expected to continue until the moment of polling.

This keeps the picture unclear until that date, unless an unexpected surprise arises, and until then, it is likely that we will see prominent names from various parties running against the Turkish president.