Why is Vucic scaring Europe?

The words of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić about the "hell" that awaits Europe if the West refuses to negotiate with Vladimir Putin caused a nervous reaction in many countries of the world.

In fact, that's exactly why he said them.

Who, if not the Serbs, knows about all the horrors of war, about life under bombardment, about indiscriminate air strikes and deadly misses by American "high-precision" weapons.

The Serbs are well aware of what sanctions are, and what it means when your country is cut to the quick, and former allies, friends and brothers turn into fierce enemies.

Yes, more than 20 years have passed since the end of the wars that tormented the former Yugoslavia, but this trauma has not been forgotten and has not been overcome.

Kosovo was torn off from Serbia, allied Montenegro was kicked into NATO, and now Serbia has no access to the sea.

And note that all this happened at a time when Russia, neither formally nor at the level of conversations, was listed as the “main threat” to the West.

You just need to understand that no matter how peaceful the words of Western politicians are, their strategy to destroy both existing and potential geopolitical opponents does not disappear anywhere.

During the years of perestroika, we believed in their friendliness.

We won't believe anymore.

And I'm sure the Serbs won't believe it - at least most of them.

We regularly criticize Vučić and other Serbian politicians for refusing to take an unambiguously pro-Russian position, for curtseying towards the European Union, for trying to please both ours and yours.

But it should be understood that politics is the art of the possible.

In Serbia, of course, there is a pro-Russian majority and, I am sure, always will be.

Serbs are not Bulgarians, ready to forget the good and betray their liberators at the first opportunity.

But there is also a pro-Western minority in Serbia.

It is very active and enjoys comprehensive financial, informational and propaganda support from Western foundations and institutions, many of which, I note, were working freely in Russia until quite recently.

It was this minority that succeeded in extraditing Slobodan Milosevic and other Serbian leaders declared war criminals by the West to be executed in The Hague.

It is this minority that is campaigning for accession to the European Union and the unconditional acceptance of "European values".

That is, for the loss by Serbia of its face, its independence and, I am not afraid of this statement, national identity.

Therefore, Vučić is forced to balance between the traditionalist majority, which in Serbia is not as silent as in many other countries, and the liberal minority, which, like everywhere else, is trying to present its own (or rather, Western-imposed) point of view as the only possible one.

What allows the pro-Russian majority in Serbia to hold on for now is the EU's demand to recognize Kosovo's independence.

Any politician who does this will instantly become a political corpse.

Or maybe not only political - morals in the Balkans have always been harsh.

Therefore, the liberals in Serbia are not in a hurry and are waiting for the last witness of the NATO bombings to die naturally, and then it will be possible to intensify propaganda.

What did Vučić mean when he spoke of the “hell” awaiting the West?

There are many options.

It is unlikely that the most pessimistic, that is, nuclear war, is meant.

After all, despite any international aggravations, the all-out financial and economic war unleashed by the West and the militarization of Ukraine, Russia’s policy in this direction does not change: we are ready to strike back exclusively or strike first in the event (I quote) “when the very existence of states".

But Serbia is not threatened by a nuclear strike in any case, this is obvious.

And Vučić said that "we are all" under threat.

What unites Serbia with the European Union?

Dependence on resources from Russia - primarily on gas.

And here there is indeed a risk, and a serious risk.

If the West tries to dictate prices and influence our foreign trade in other ways, Gazprom can really turn the valve on.

An icy hell is not as deadly as a fiery hell, but it still won’t seem like a little to anyone.

Europe, and especially Eastern Europe, has neither the strength, nor the means, nor the possibilities to spend the winter without our gas.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to organize deliveries directly to Serbia: all gas pipelines in one way or another pass through the territory of countries unfriendly to Russia.

Hungarian President Orban also understands this very well.

“At first I thought that we just shot ourselves in the foot, but now it seems that the European economy has shot itself in the lungs and is suffocating,” he said.

If Europe consisted of independent states whose leaders think about their peoples, of course, there would be no sanctions - and there would be no threat of "hell".

The renunciation of sovereignty always ends up with countries and people having to pay the bills of others.

Serbia is still holding out, but, alas, it is impossible to cancel the geography and consequences of the collapse of Yugoslavia.

More precisely, perhaps, but it will be a completely different special military operation.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.