With the course of appeasement and rapprochement between the various countries in the region, and prior to the upcoming visit of the US President to it, there is a clear will to form a new regional order that overturns the existing equations, the most prominent title of which is bloc and cooperation in confronting Iran.

End of an era

Since the end of 2020, the region has witnessed a movement between its various countries.

Its title is "calm and communication", after a decade of polarization and direct and indirect confrontation in which these countries stood at opposite ends.

There are many reasons behind this trend, in which several countries have become involved, but the most important of them are two;

The first is the decline in the presence of controversial files between the two sides, such as the Arab revolutions, the coup in Egypt, the Gulf crisis, and even the file of the killing of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and the second is the desire of the United States to reduce tension and differences between its allies in the region, so that it can relieve some of the burden and place it on them on the one hand, and the possibility of directing them in A common path in the future on the other hand.

Thus, over the past two years, we have witnessed several meetings, dialogues and visits between Turkey on one side and the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and "Israel" on the other, as well as between Qatar and Egypt, and between the Gulf states.

In addition, from a second angle, meetings and meetings between Iran on the one hand and Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the other hand, as well as news and reports that speak periodically and frequently about meetings between "Israel" and a number of Arab countries.

Accordingly, there have been two different tracks in the region recently;

Although there is a connection between them from some angle.

The first is a path between the countries that formed the pillars of polarization in the region in the past years, and its main title is closing the page of the Arab Spring and opening a new page in relations far from retrenchment and targeting and closer to calm, communication and dialogue, and in the future cooperation, especially in the economic field.

The second is a path between the countries that formed the poles of the "axis of resistance" before the Arab revolutions, with the addition of the occupying state and coordinated by the United States of America, and the title of this path is "coordinating efforts to confront Iran."

Perhaps it is remarkable in this context - and prior to Biden's visit to the region - the news that the Wall Street Journal reported on June 26 about a secret meeting that was held last March in Sharm el-Sheikh, which gathered military officials from all over the world. From Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain “to discuss how to coordinate in confronting Iran’s growing capabilities in the areas of missiles and drones,” based on statements by US officials and from the region.

It is also worth noting the increase in recent statements referring to the idea of ​​forming an axis, an alliance, or a "regional NATO." Similar to NATO, it should include like-minded countries.

Ankara’s starting points in the course of its current foreign policy seem mostly internal and related to improving economic conditions ahead of the elections next year, including attracting investments, developing intra-trade, easing foreign policy pressures, uniting polarization and targeting, which are motives that do not include confronting Iran.

In addition, statements attributed to the US Deputy Secretary of State for Middle East Affairs, "Barbara Leaf", during a parliamentary hearing, that the United States is "working behind the scenes with two additional countries" to normalize relations with "Israel" and that Biden's upcoming visit to the region may witness "interesting things." " In this context.

Based on the foregoing, it can be said that the second track seeks to establish a new regional order whose main title is confronting Iran and includes the occupying power with Arab countries, while the goal of the first track is to close the previous page of polarization and what could be one of the requirements of the first track.

By combining the two simultaneous tracks, it can be said that the regional system that prevailed during the past decade has reached its end, leaving its place for another regional system that is being formed.

Where is Turkey in that?

Where is Turkey?

At the outset, it is worth noting Turkey's central presence in the first track and its noticeable absence from the second track.

Turkey was at the heart of the declared regional movement, and it was brought together by meetings at the presidential level with the Emirates, "Israel" and Saudi Arabia, while it was not mentioned in most - if not all - secret meetings that fall under the item of the regional alliance to be formed.

Moreover, Ankara’s current foreign policy premises seem mostly internal and related to improving economic conditions ahead of the elections next year, including attracting investments, developing intra-trade, easing foreign policy pressures, uniting polarization and targeting, which are motives that do not include confronting Iran.

In addition, Turkey has its own priorities. The competition with Greece in the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea, and the file of the latter's armament of the islands;

They are a priority for Ankara, followed by the conflict files in Syria, Iraq and Libya.

Although some of these files included a competition with Tehran, Ankara does not approach it with the same view of the Arab Gulf states, as well as the occupying state.

Also, the course of Ankara's rapprochement with the aforementioned parties did not include - at least until now - a radical change in the visions and positions on various issues in the region, neither from them nor from the other parties, as all that was mentioned about the aforementioned visits and meetings touched on dialogue and cooperation, especially in the economic and commercial field Without any indication of a shift in the system of alliances and alignments in the region.

All this does not mean that the question about Turkey's place in the regional system, which is desired in its hypothetical formation, lacks relevance, as there are developments that have put it on the table for discussion.

The path of rapprochement brought together Turkey and most of the countries that are supposed to form the pillars of the supposed axis. On the other hand, the rapprochement with "Israel" came in light of a heated confrontation between the latter and Iran, which included the assassination of its leading figures and Iranian attempts to respond in several countries, foremost of which is Turkey.

The question (about Turkey's place in the regional system) has increased recently;

Announcing the thwarting of Iranian operations to assassinate "Israeli" figures on Turkish soil, some of which witnessed Turkey's cooperation with the Mossad.

But the official Turkish narrative states this as part of its "refusal to turn its lands into a theater of confrontation" between the two sides, which negatively affects the country's security, economy and tourism, as well as Turkey's reputation as a safe country.

What supports the idea that Turkey is not biased towards either party, but rather seeks to spare its territory this confrontation;

The previous months, which witnessed Ankara's arrest of Iranian spy networks, also witnessed the arrest of a network of Mossad agents, and Hebrew media reported that Mevlut Cavusoglu (Turkish Foreign Minister) warned the "Israelis" against continuing to claim that Iran targeted them on Turkish soil and their calls to leave Turkish territory.

Perhaps it is useful to point out that despite the fierce competition in the region between Ankara and Tehran, they have avoided entering into a direct confrontation and have shown a political will to avoid conflict and manage the dispute in a way that guarantees the interests of the two countries. One of the examples of this is the tripartite Astana framework that includes them in addition to Russia.

Finally, it is useful to recall that Turkey was not a main pillar of the two main axes that prevailed in the region before the Arab Spring, i.e. the axes of “moderation” and “resistance”, but rather had a good relationship with both.

It is expected that in the foreseeable future, Ankara will follow a similar policy in the event that tension increases between Iran and the emerging regional axis.

In summary, the data says that Ankara will seek to weave normal relations with the various parties in the region, to relieve pressure on it and revive the economy. It has presented the benefits of rapprochement with these countries within bilateral files such as the Egyptian opposition and the Khashoggi file.

Therefore, it is not expected that it will engage in a new state of polarization that will lead it to what it seeks to get rid of, as this is not in its interest and there are no indications of its desire to do so or its readiness for something like this, in addition to the path of rapprochement with some countries in the region - especially "Israel". And some Arab Gulf states - it has not yet been removed and is not expected to soon remove the weakness of trust and the gap between the two sides.

Ankara is likely to chart an independent and differentiated path between the two sides that focuses on its national security priorities and the interest of its economy at home, which in principle contradicts the idea of ​​engaging in the emerging regional order.

More than that, it is in Ankara's interest that such a confrontation does not occur, because it will be - with the Arab Gulf - one of its most important arenas and at the forefront of those affected by it, which means that its interest is to make every effort to prevent such a scenario with its capabilities and relations if it can.