Bali counts in autumn

The policy of international isolation of Russia, proclaimed by US President Joe Biden after the start of a special operation in Ukraine, gave the first systemic failure.

The most surprising thing is that this happened at the very moment when the Western allies gathered at the G7 summit in Elmau to demonstrate against the backdrop of the German Alps that their solidarity in the confrontation with Moscow is solid as a rock, and they are determined to continue to put pressure on Russia wherever can.

To come up with more and more new means of deterrence for this, more and more new sanctions, such as a ban on the import of Russian gold and an exotic proposal to introduce a ceiling on world oil prices.

Statements by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, made less than a day apart, when the G7 summit had already begun, showed that President Biden's imagined boundless readiness to follow the leader of the war of sanctions and Russia's boycott policy, President Biden, still has its limits. .

This policy suddenly hit a ceiling or red line, which is called the G20.

First, Ursula von der Leyen, and then Olaf Scholz, reported that, it turns out, the West does not intend to boycott the G20 summit scheduled for mid-November on the Indonesian island of Bali if Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in it.

In turn, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said on the same day that Vladimir Putin had already received an offer to take part in the G20 summit from the host of the meeting, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and Moscow responded positively.

Moreover, this week the leader of Indonesia's G20 presidency, Joko Widodo, will visit Moscow, where he will hold talks with Vladimir Putin.

Commenting on Jakarta’s official proposal sent to Vladimir Putin, Yuri Ushakov called it a very important point “taking into account the fact that the Indonesians are being pressured and pressured by the corresponding Western countries” (the assistant to the Russian president did not name them diplomatically).

Meanwhile, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, now assures that she opposes the idea of ​​boycotting the G20 summit because of the possible participation of Vladimir Putin in it.

“We need to think very specifically about whether we intend to paralyze the work of the entire G20.

I do not support this... From my point of view, the G20 is too important, especially for developing countries," Ursula von der Leyen said in an interview with the German ZDF TV channel.

“It seems to me that it would be better to tell him (Vladimir Putin. -

), if he arrives, in person, what we think about his actions, having shown our position,” added the head of the European Commission, referring to the special military operation in Ukraine, although what she thinks about it has long been known.

Why fly to Bali for this?

So it was a grudging admission that sooner or later you will have to sit down at the negotiating table with Moscow, whether you like Vladimir Putin or not.

“One thing is clear: the G20 plays a big role and we want to work closely with it.

All states here agree with this.

We have a common conviction, also expressed by Mrs. von der Leyen, that we should not torpedo the G20, ”German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continued the topic in an interview with the same ZDF television channel.

However, to a clarifying question whether he himself would go to the G20 summit in Bali if it turned out that Vladimir Putin would take part in its work, Chancellor Scholz answered very evasively, retaining the intrigue.

According to him, he "will make a final decision shortly before departure, since by then the situation in the world may change quite significantly."

This reservation, casting a diplomatic fog, is very symbolic.

It indicates that everything seems to be decided, but nothing has been decided yet.

It is necessary to consult with someone else (guess who) and then decide.

Especially since - look at the calendar - the G20 summit will be held just a week after the US congressional elections (the same "shortly before departure", which Olaf Scholz speaks of).

This reservation by Olaf Scholz appeared not by chance: over the past months, a serious behind-the-scenes struggle has unfolded around Russian participation in the G20 summit.

Created in 1999 to seek collective measures to overcome the financial crisis of the second half of the 1990s, today the G20 is more divided than ever.

Back in April, the United States demanded that Russia be excluded from the G20, but then the presiding Indonesia and other developing countries opposed it.

The G20 Finance Ministers meeting in Washington two months ago came amid a growing crisis that threatens the global economy and financial system with even greater shocks than the COVID-19 pandemic.

Called to carry out global anti-crisis management, the G20, for the first time in its history, then found itself in a situation where risks are not stopped, but are generated by the members of the G20 themselves, who unleashed a war of sanctions.

Recall that the G20 includes the largest economically developed and developing countries of the world.

These are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as the European Union.

Some statistics: 60% of the world's population live in the G20 countries and about 80% of economic production is concentrated.

Finally, it is important to note that although the decisions of the G20 are advisory in nature and formally must be approved by the IMF, the World Bank and other international organizations, at its meetings the G20 determines the strategy for solving the problems of the world economy and global development.

During the previous G20 summit in November last year, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi urged the G20 to return to the multilateral decision-making for which it was created in the late 1990s.

UN Secretary General António Guterres at the same time warned of "a dangerous level of distrust between major world powers, between developed and developing countries."

However, after the previous G20 summit in Rome against the backdrop of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the members of the G20 over the past four months not only did not restore the ability to work collectively, but also completely dispersed to different sides of the barricades.

Another big thank you to Joe Biden.

“Russia and President Vladimir Putin have shown themselves to be pariahs on the world stage.

President Biden's view is that Russia has no place in international forums," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in April.

She, in fact, was the first to say that the United States would insist on the inclusion of the issue of Ukraine in the agenda of the November G20 summit in Bali, and also seek to prevent the participation of the Russian president in the meeting.

From that moment on, everything took off.

At the same time, Reuters reported that Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov sent a letter to Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes asking him to support Russia "in preventing political accusations and attempts at discrimination in international financial institutions and in multilateral forums."

According to Reuters, the letter said that the ongoing work at the IMF and the World Bank to limit or even exclude Russia from decision-making is contrary to the Bretton Woods agreement that created the IMF and IBRD.

“We believe that the current crisis, caused by unprecedented economic sanctions from the G7 countries, may have long-term consequences if we do not take joint action to resolve it,” Anton Siluanov’s letter to his Brazilian counterpart was quoted by Reuters.

Recall that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was one of the first to refuse to join the sanctions against Russia after the start of the military operation in Ukraine.

“No sanctions or condemnation of President Putin.

Brazil's vote is not associated with any power.

We cannot interfere.

You can’t try to resolve a difficult situation by creating an even bigger problem for all of humanity and our country, ”the leader of the largest Latin American economy, which is part of the G20 and BRICS, warned then.

And this week, Vladimir Putin and Jair Bolsonaro again spoke by phone, declaring their readiness to expand cooperation.

“The mutual intention to consistently strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries was confirmed, including the further expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields, including agriculture and energy,” the Kremlin’s press service said.

Thus, it became completely clear: the idea of ​​leaving Russia out of the game at the G20 is unrealizable, and those who try to do this will put not Russia out of the game, but themselves.

In order not to be in an idiotic position and not to resemble that very non-commissioned officer's widow who flogged herself, Ursula von der Leyen hastened to declare that, it turns out, we are not even against it at all and there will be no boycott of the G20.

Following her, Olaf Scholz hurried to do the same.

Given that the "seven" is part of the "twenty", going against ourselves would be the height of madness.

It remains to be seen whether Joe Biden will be ready to agree with such an unexpected turn for him, who will face a test and a likely shock in November - elections to the US Congress, in which an increasingly real fiasco shines for the Democrats.

In general, Bali counts in autumn.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.