Guest Africa

Philippe Chalmin: "To say that it is Ukraine that is causing a global food crisis is an exaggeration"

Audio 04:08

Among the cereals exported by Ukraine, wheat, barley, corn.

© Pixabay/Montage RFI

By: Carine Frenk Follow

4 mins

The German government is organizing an international conference on Friday, June 24 in Berlin on the food crisis linked to the war in Ukraine.

Since his trip to Sochi, Senegalese President Macky Sall, current chairman of the African Union, has repeated: "

”.

Philippe Chalmin, a commodity market specialist, said he was surprised at what he called “

” on the part of the international community.

“

, according to him, 

”. 

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Carine Frenk: In

For the moment it is low insofar as admittedly there are few cereals coming out of Ukraine today, but I remind you that Africa is mainly concerned with wheat and Ukraine had almost finished its campaign. export of wheat.

It remains in Ukrainian silos, before the new campaign there are perhaps 4-5 million tons of wheat left.

But in reality, the real impact of the war in Ukraine on African wheat imports is through the price.

It must be recognized that since the outbreak of the war, world wheat prices have nevertheless increased by a hundred dollars a ton.

But when we talk about grain exports from Ukraine and make it the major cause of the world food problem, is this an error of judgment, a shortcut for journalists?

I'll let journalists talk about journalist shortcuts, but I think that's a bit of a lot of that.

What is clear is that the real reason for the tensions on world agricultural markets, and which predates the Ukrainian crisis since it dates back to 2021, is the importance of Chinese purchases in 2021. It is clear that then we had an increase in tensions related to the war in Ukraine.

So the Ukrainian crisis amplified a problem that already existed, which was the excessive food dependence of many African countries that did not make sufficient agricultural policy efforts.

And on the other hand, the tensions, we already had them in 2021 due in particular to the importance of Chinese purchases.

Say it's the

And so that means that you are questioning the analyzes made by the European, UN or African authorities, when they mention the urgency of opening corridors in the Black Sea to allow wheat to pass.

The problem is that for the moment these corridors would let more corn go without than wheat, we must be honest.

Then there will be the problem of the arrival of the new campaign, therefore of the new Ukrainian harvest.

This one will actually have a hard time getting out.

But I think that rather than imagining maritime corridors which will be extremely difficult to set up insofar as part of the sea is mined, and that the reliability of the Turkish partner can still be quite easily doubted, it is probably better to make every possible effort to try to develop land corridors by road and rail to arrive on the Danube and exit through the Romanian ports for example.

We won't be able to get everything out, but if I stick to wheat,

Another worrying factor for Africa is the shortage of fertilizers.

President Macky Sall mentioned on his return from Sochi the risk of a 20 to 50% collapse in cereal yields in Africa if the supply of fertilizers is not assured on the continent.

Do you share these concerns?

So I think he's absolutely right.

President Macky Sall is probably touching what is currently the Achilles heel of African agriculture.

I think you have to call a spade a spade: the African food crisis is above all a crisis of poverty, a crisis of poor governance, a crisis of poor management of agricultural policies and for certain regions, but also a climate crisis, I am thinking of the drought affecting the Horn of Africa.

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