On the ninth of this month, the Turkish president announced for the first time officially and directly his intention to run in the presidential elections that will be held next summer.

At the meeting of the advisory council of his party branch in Izmir, Erdogan said unequivocally, "I am the candidate of the People's Alliance for the presidential elections," calling on the opposition parties to disclose their candidate who will compete with him.

Some opposition figures raised a discussion about Erdogan's eligibility to run, claiming that he is not constitutionally entitled to do so, to which the Justice and Development Party responded at the time.

Others also hinted that Erdogan may refrain from nominating himself, and is looking for an alternative candidate for the ruling party and coalition

late announcement

Erdogan did not need an announcement of this kind to confirm his candidacy for next year's elections. Everyone in Turkey and abroad is aware of this, especially the internal opposition.

He is the natural and self-evident candidate of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is wrapped around his leadership, and his ally, the Nationalist Movement Party, has announced more than once that its candidate for the presidency is President Erdogan, and that he does not think of supporting any other candidate, not from his party from other parties.

So why did the announcement come?

What are its meanings and messages?

One of the most important matters that casts a shadow over everything related to the upcoming elections is its “exceptionality” and its radical difference from all the electoral elections that Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party have fought since its founding.

Far from the symbolism of the elections coinciding with the centenary of the founding of the republic, it comes in light of difficult economic conditions globally and internally, and in light of an unprecedented state of polarization, an unstable alliance system, a decline in the popularity of the ruling party, and a focus on the file of foreigners residing on Turkish soil (refugees), And the presence of parties that emerged from the mantle of the ruling party and coordinated with the opposition, and other factors that make the elections a referendum on the popularity of Erdogan and his party in the first place.

The announcement also came after some opposition figures raised a discussion about Erdogan's eligibility to run, claiming that he is not constitutionally entitled to do so, and the party's response at the time.

Others also hinted that Erdogan may refrain from running for himself and search for an alternative candidate for the ruling party and coalition, which means that the announcement from some angle is an indirect response to skepticism about this and an indication that the ruling party has practically skipped these discussions, thus closing the door to any Controversy within or about the ruling party.

From a third angle, it can be seen that the Turkish president's announcement of his intention to run for president is the semi-official announcement of the start of electoral campaigns, which Erdogan himself referred to a few days later when he said that "the countdown to the elections has already begun."

However, in addition to all of the above, there is no doubt that the main objective of the Turkish president’s announcement is to put pressure on the opposition in general, and the six parties that want to return to the parliamentary system in particular, and more specifically and specifically on the leader of the opposition and the head of the Republican People’s Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Therefore, Erdogan does not miss a speech from the moment of this announcement without repeating his appeal to the latter - which has turned into a political slogan - to "announce your candidacy, or announce your candidate" for the presidential elections.

This is the call to which the opposition leader was responding by asking Erdogan himself to announce his candidacy in turn, and the latter's announcement was an implicit response to that and further pressure on him.

why now?

Perhaps the most important question surrounding the announcement is its context and timing, which helps to understand its connotations and the messages carried within it and between its lines.

The six parties, Republican, Good, Happy, Democratic, Future, Democracy and Progress, have been meeting and coordinating since September of last year with the aim of returning the country from a presidential system to a parliamentary one, of course if it wins the next elections.

However, despite this, these parties have not yet announced that they form a coherent alliance. Rather, they still use the term “Table of the Six” to refer to the coordination meeting between them, in light of the many signs that it is difficult to turn into a unified alliance.

The past months have also proven that these parties, with various backgrounds, ideologies, ideas and programs, differ among themselves in several main matters, foremost of which is the idea of ​​a consensual candidate and the criteria for his selection.

Therefore, it has not formally discussed this matter, let alone announced the name of its candidate, despite organizing five regular meetings at the level of its presidents.

The head of the Democratic Party made statements that winked at Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, the two former leaders of the Justice and Development and the main participants in the Six Table, before retracting them in favor of talking about criteria for selecting the consensual candidate.

For its part, the Democratic and Progress Party led by Babacan announced that it would "run in the elections alone and in its name and slogan" while continuing its commitment to support a consensual opposition candidate if agreed upon.

Then Davutoglu confirmed a few days ago that he is a candidate for the presidential elections, "but if there is consensus between the parties, we are ready to discuss that."

On the other hand, Kılıçdaroğlu is still insisting on his candidacy for the presidential elections, according to his signals and statements, despite the objection of parties within his party and significant parties in the opposition to this, as they see that his chances of competing with Erdogan are weaker than those of other candidates from the opposition. By insisting on his candidacy, he risks sabotaging the opposition and re-electing Erdogan.

The Good Party, the second opposition party in terms of size and weight, reiterated more than once by its officials, led by its president, Meral Aksener, its desire for a candidate other than Kılıçdaroğlu, especially the mayor of Greater Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. Indeed, one of the party leaders said explicitly that the latter would not He can win the elections "because he is Alawite", a statement that sparked great controversy before the good party apologized for it.

On the other hand, the opposition leader does not represent the best choice for the two dissident parties from Justice and Development (Future, Democracy and Progress) nor for the conservative Felicity Party, because of the great and deep differences between them and his party politically, intellectually, ideologically and historically, and even if the leaders of these parties support his candidacy, it is expected that large segments will Of her supporters will not abide by this in her vote.

Based on all of the above, it is understandable that Erdogan's main goal in his announcement is to first increase pressure on Kılıçdaroğlu, and secondly - and through that - to stoke differences and deepen controversy within the opposition hexagonal framework.

On the one hand, it pushes them to discuss the matter while they want to deport it, and on the other hand, it shows their inability to agree on it, or at the very least they postpone this discussion, as the ruling party will try to show weakness and disagreement.

On the other hand, and assuming that Erdogan’s pressure paid off and the opposition announced a consensual candidate for it to compete next year, even as a hypothetical name in principle to discuss it, this will give the Turkish President the adequate opportunity and time to focus his speech and his electoral plan to confront a specific name in order to weaken his chances, while he is forced Today for the political and media clash with six political parties and focus on the leader of the opposition as their "potential" candidate.

The repeated calls by the Turkish president of the opposition to name its rival candidate is a smart political move, as it is part of setting the debate agenda in the country.

This is something that gives him the initiative and puts the opposition within the framework of the responses, in addition to what this allows to divert attention from the economic problems and some files that the opposition deems useful for it towards focusing on the idea of ​​the consensual candidate.

It seems that Erdogan's initiative has borne fruit in terms of putting the issue on the opposition's agenda, as well as in terms of the differences among them.

In the first context, some media reports stated that the Chairman of the Democratic and Progress Party, Ali Babacan, will present at the next meeting of the six parties four names proposed by his party to compete with Erdogan as a consensus candidate, led by former President Abdullah Gul.

In the second context, the mayor of a municipality affiliated with the Republican People’s Party publicly criticized the head of his party for not responding to Erdogan and announcing his candidacy, and bypassing that to show his willingness - i.e. the mayor - to run against Erdogan, stressing his confidence in winning, which would apparently put him outside the thresholds of his party After he was transferred to the disciplinary committee in the wake of these statements.

In summary, Erdogan's statement is far from just announcing his intention to run for the presidential elections next year, as it is a large stone thrown into the stagnant waters of the opposition, waiting to make an impact there.

The Turkish president is more aware than others that he will not compete with a single candidate, but rather an alliance that supports a candidate against him, and that the alliance system will be one of the most important factors determining the name of the next president of Turkey. Therefore, his statement directly targets the cohesion of the opposition in its confrontation and causing confusion and disputes within it.