“We will draw the appropriate conclusions and use our means of destruction, which we have enough to strike at those objects that we have not yet struck,” - this is how Vladimir Putin commented on the prospects for the development of the situation if the United States gives Ukraine long-range missiles for those already promised by the Pentagon for the delivery of MLRS HIMARS.
Missiles that will allow Ukraine to strike at the cities of the Russian Federation.
And all because the Russian Federation regards the delivery of these missiles as crossing a red line.
The fact is that the Russian special operation in Ukraine is for the most part a classic Russian-American war on the periphery.
A format common during the First Cold War, when Russia and the United States, not ready for direct military confrontation with each other (because of their unwillingness to start a nuclear war), fought conflicts on the territory of third countries.
However, in order for this conflict not to spill over into a direct military clash, both superpowers understood the need to comply with a number of rules - conditional red lines, which could not be crossed under the threat of harsh responses from the opposite side and the emergence of an escalation spiral.
That is, to put it simply, the flow of the same Vietnamese or Afghan conflicts into a full-fledged third world war.
In the current conflict in Ukraine, there are conventionally two sets of red lines.
The first was unilaterally established by the Russian Federation for Kyiv.
Moscow has clearly stated that it is not waging a war, but a special military operation limited to the fulfillment of clear tasks and not involving, for example, inflicting critical damage to the enemy’s infrastructure and disabling his decision-making points (which is mandatory during a classic war).
That is why the Russian Federation, for example, has not yet calibrated the buildings of the administration of the President of Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, if Kyiv violates the rules of a special military operation — for example, by trying to invade Russian proper territories of the Belgorod, Kursk, or Bryansk regions — then Russia will introduce elements of war into the special operation.
As in the case
In general, Zelensky, shouting at all corners about protection from "Russian aggression", complies with the rules communicated to him.
Yes, he is trying to somehow bite them in the corners, to test Russian resolve in case of minor violations (for example, when Ukrainian artillery hits Russian villages), but still he complies.
Not because he wants to play by the rules, but because he understands: you shouldn’t get ahead of Biden in hell.
After all, until recently, the United States, which the Ukrainian leadership is now largely guided by, followed the red lines - as befits a great power during a war on the periphery.
In particular, the Americans did not give Ukraine such types of weapons that could change the course of hostilities, inflict critical damage on Russian troops, or inflict defeat on the depths of Russian territory.
And of course
However, now the approach has begun to change.
The Pentagon realized they were losing the war.
Thanks to the right tactics of grinding Ukrainian reserves and depriving Kyiv of the ability to conduct hostilities, Moscow managed to deprive the Armed Forces of Ukraine of a significant part of the military potential.
So significant that Kyiv began to plug holes in the fronts due to the untrained and not particularly motivated Volkssturm (who, in the best Ukrainian traditions, began to write tearful videos from the front, finishing off the already low morale of other potential fighters).
This means that the plan of the United States to drag out the special operation as much as possible (in order to wear down Russian society and the Russian economy) was in jeopardy.
And here the American elites demonstrated the very irresponsibility that distinguishes them from the politicians of past eras,
— they decided to break the red lines.
In particular, they began to transfer to Kyiv such MLRS, with the help of which it is possible to strike at a distance of hundreds of kilometers.
Yes, so far just MLRS - without special long-range missiles.
But they can be supplied by other countries to which the US has given these missiles.
And in this situation, the phrase “We have nothing to do with it!”
will not save Americans from escalation.
Of course, Washington promises that no red lines will be crossed.
That the Ukrainian authorities promised not to strike at Russian cities.
However, here the Americans need to take an example from Germany.
According to the German publication Der Spiegel, Berlin is delaying the delivery of tanks to Kyiv because it does not trust the readiness of President Zelensky to follow the red lines.
That is, to put it simply, do not use these tanks to invade any border area of the Russian Federation.
And all because Berlin is guided not by words or even by any written guarantees, especially from Ukraine, which over the past eight years has become adept at failing to fulfill its obligations, even those consecrated by a UN Security Council resolution.
Berlin focuses on the opportunity that it gives or does not give to Kyiv.
Possibility,
Here, of course, the key point is the nature of the answer itself.
The red lines are not based on someone's word, but on the principle of guaranteed damage.
A potential violator must clearly understand the consequences of the violation, and for this, these consequences must sometimes be demonstrated to him.
As, for example, Moscow has already acted once, striking at the Yavorovsky training ground with mercenaries.
And Vladimir Putin is now saying that a response to the supply of long-range missiles (which will hit Russian cities) will definitely follow.
Moreover, the Russian president, in his usual manner, did not specify what objects were being discussed.
And also in what country.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.