We must pay tribute, after all, we live in rather entertaining times.
And when Serbian President Vučić proudly declares that the price of Russian gas next winter will rise to €4,000-5,000 per 1,000 cubic meters, and gas will be at least three times cheaper for his country, then, on the one hand, all the same I would like to hope that the Serbian leader is somewhat exaggerating.
But on the other hand, it’s probably not worth being surprised at the madness that is happening in the energy markets of Europe: we are not surprised at the current $960 at the TTF hub in the Netherlands.
Although a year ago these figures seemed to be something absolutely mythical and unbearable for the economy of the continent.
However, a year ago it seemed that nothing threatened the energy security of the Old Continent at all, and yet just about - and the Nord Stream - 2 will start, which at the moment is better not to remember at all.
At the same time, in fact, there is nothing unusual in the contract that Vucic negotiated with Putin and which he is so proud of: these are the plus or minus conditions under which the Russian Federation is ready to supply blue fuel to other Europeans - the standard oil price formula.
Thanks to which, for example, the same Germany passed the past winter quite confidently and even earned money by reselling Russian gas to the same Poles on the reverse.
Standard, in general, the story.
But that was just last winter.
As for the future, here the Serbian president is right, this is a real success.
Cheaper Russian gas will be delivered only to Belarus and Armenia.
But there is still a slightly different geography, you see.
And Minsk at the current moment is almost Moscow at all ...
Thus, as far as Belgrade is concerned, the Serbs seem to have more or less resolved their issues.
No, there are still negotiations on an additional 800 million cubic meters.
m of gas per year requested by Vučić.
There are certain problems there: the buyers explain the requested increase in supplies by the “development of Serbia”, while the seller, as far as we understand, has some suspicions that they are going to resell additional volumes, and Gazprom is not very happy with such a Balkan business.
But for 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas, the so-called base volume, an agreement has already been reached and fixed.
At least, as reported in the press service of the Russian president, "it was agreed, in particular, that Russia will continue to supply uninterrupted natural gas to Serbia."
This cannot be said about other countries of the European continent.
And the question here is not about the volumes and security of supplies: after European operators, despite the most severe pressure from across the ocean, nevertheless agreed with the transfer of settlements into rubles, it somehow became completely pointless to doubt the reliability of the supply of Russian blue fuel: it Russians were not ready to supply gas to Europe for free, but for normal money - why not?
The only question is price.
And this is where some of the problems start.
Moreover, the funny thing is that Europe, frankly speaking, invented these problems for itself (not without the help of London, of course).
But British stock speculators can at least be understood here: they always liked to fish in troubled waters, and they never really liked the Old Continent, but money is just the opposite.
Well, what were the Brussels bureaucrats thinking, emasculating that same oil formula and replacing it with a “fair market price” formed on the same TTF hub in the Netherlands, and also (and first of all) on the London ICE exchange trading in gas futures? I personally don't have an answer to the question.
Because, paradoxically, the current ultra-high prices for blue fuel are unprofitable even for suppliers - what can we say, excuse me, about end consumers.
No one will like such numbers in invoices and payment documents.
In fact, everything is simple here.
Once again: such, to put it mildly, sparing prices that Serbian President Vučić received from his Russian counterpart is not at all something completely exceptional, it is just a normal price on a long contract.
The fact is that before gas can be sold to someone, it must first be extracted and delivered to the buyer.
And for this, it would be good to invest in production, sorry.
And when you look at this chain from the side of the manufacturer, it suddenly becomes clear to you that you are not interested in ultra-high prices on the exchange.
You are interested in reliability and stability over a long distance, not super profit.
No, no one will refuse money, but fast money is not the income of a manufacturer, but exclusively of a speculator.
The manufacturer simply sets a price that is sufficient, from his point of view, which should cover, first of all, the costs of a long project, and takes his own according to the formula, if very roughly, “cost plus”: relying on speculative fluctuations of the “invisible hand of the market” is not that undignified - the risks are just not worth it.
And this is somehow quite naive not to understand.
In a word, Gazprom, there is a suspicion, would continue with pleasure to supply gas to its traditional markets at relatively low prices, as it will happen now with Serbia.
Alas, Europe itself refused low prices based on the oil formula.
And this energy crisis on the continent turned out to be quite man-made: in fact, in Brussels they themselves broke the system of their own energy security.
And in whose interests they did it - the second question.
The answer to which (there is such a feeling) must be sought "behind a big puddle."
At least, this state of affairs is definitely not beneficial for Russia, let alone Europe itself.
And whose ears are sticking out here is also, in general, understandable: the beneficiaries count the money.
For them, this is nothing more than the price of the issue.
But for the European economies, this turns out to be some very expensive and almost unsolvable question.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.