Grasp the development trend and advance the RCEP process
Under the current world and regional situation, the high-level implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the full play of RCEP's role will not only have a decisive impact on regional economic integration and regional economic growth, but will also promote global economic rebalancing .
To this end, it is necessary to grasp the general trend, eliminate interference, firmly advance the RCEP process, and work together to build the world's largest free trade area.
RCEP is the most economically dynamic free trade zone in the world
The RCEP Free Trade Zone is the most economically dynamic region in the world, now is and will be in the future.
From 2000 to 2020, the total economic volume of the 15 RCEP member countries increased from US$7.84 trillion to US$25.96 trillion, with an average annual growth rate of 6.51%, exceeding the global average growth rate of 4.95% during the same period; in 2020, RCEP members will attract foreign businessmen Direct investment accounts for 37% of the world's total, far ahead of other free trade zones; RCEP member countries have 31.6% of the world's labor force aged 15-64, much higher than the EU's 6.7% and North America's 13.2%.
The ASEAN-led RCEP will not only give full play to the advantages of traditional developed countries, but also help optimize the allocation of resources including less developed countries, thereby unleashing the economic vitality of member states and promoting stable economic growth.
In particular, relying on the open and inclusive trade and investment liberalization and facilitation institutional arrangements, China and ASEAN, the two most dynamic markets with the greatest growth potential, will be further integrated, thereby stimulating the vitality of the RCEP unified market.
RCEP will effectively release regional development potential.
The direct driving force of regional economic cooperation comes from the differentiation of factor endowments and the optimization of allocation.
The superposition of scale advantages and vitality advantages is conducive to unleashing the huge growth potential of RCEP.
Studies have shown that by 2030, the proportion of RCEP15 economies in the world will increase from the current 30% to 50%.
By 2035, RCEP will drive the region's overall GDP, export and import increments to increase by 0.86%, 18.3% and 9.63% respectively compared with the baseline scenario.
Among them, ASEAN countries will benefit the most, and their GDP growth rate will increase by 4.47% due to the implementation of RCEP. The cumulative growth of imports and exports of ASEAN member countries such as the Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam will all exceed 20%.
Firmly advance the RCEP process.
In the next few years, as long as all member states make concerted efforts to advance the RCEP process, an irreversible trend of regional economic integration in East Asia will be formed, the huge economic growth potential will be transformed into real economic competitiveness, and the ASEAN's regional presence will be further enhanced. important role in the economic cooperation framework.
This requires member states to implement the market opening commitments and rules stipulated in the agreement as soon as possible, and to start RCEP negotiations on the follow-up clauses as soon as possible.
For example, carry out the review of Article 4.2 of the rules of origin with RCEP member countries to realize the transition from "origin accumulation" to "full accumulation"; integrate the existing five tariff commitment tables to realize the "country-specific tariff reduction" Transition to "Harmonized Tariff Concessions".
China is ASEAN's largest market
The increasing complementarity of China-ASEAN economy and trade is still a major trend.
China and ASEAN have given full play to their respective comparative advantages and continued to deepen economic and trade cooperation with a focus on manufacturing, which has significantly increased the importance of both sides in each other's economic development and further enhanced their complementarity.
In 2002, the bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN was 54.77 billion US dollars, and in 2010, the bilateral trade volume was close to 300 billion US dollars.
In 2019, the bilateral trade volume exceeded 600 billion US dollars, doubling from 2010.
In 2020, under the circumstance that the global trade volume in goods dropped by 20% year-on-year and the overall growth rate of ASEAN foreign trade dropped by 5.8%, the bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN increased by 6.7% year-on-year, accounting for 14.7% and 25.8% of the total foreign trade volume of China and ASEAN respectively. And for the first time, a new pattern in which China and ASEAN are each other's largest trading partners has been formed.
In 2021, the trade volume of goods between China and ASEAN will increase by 28.1% year-on-year, making each other the largest trading partner for two consecutive years.
China's ongoing structural transformation will bring greater market space for ASEAN's economic growth.
The market is the scarcest resource, and market opening is the most pragmatic action.
China's structural transformation and market opening will provide a huge new market for the world.
In the next 10 years or so, China's R&D-focused producer services will have room for growth of 20 to 30 percentage points, service consumption will have room for growth of 15 to 20 percentage points, and the urban-rural structure will still have at least about 10 percentage points of growth. Upgrade space.
China's structural transformation and the release of the effects of its opening-up policy will bring important impetus to ASEAN's economic growth dominated by external markets, and become the basic conditions for deepening China-ASEAN cooperation under the RCEP framework.
Pragmatically promote the construction of the 3.0 version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area.
Promoting the construction of the 3.0 version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is a major measure focusing on the realistic foundation of the increasingly complementary China-ASEAN economy and trade and the need to promote the deepening and fulfilling of the China-ASEAN comprehensive strategic partnership.
In the near future, Chinese enterprises should be encouraged to increase their investment in ASEAN, so as to double the proportion of China's direct investment in ASEAN.
While increasing cooperation in agriculture and manufacturing, expand cooperation space with service trade, digital economy, green economy, etc.
On this basis, with reference to high-level economic and trade agreements, we will strive to form greater openness in areas where the two sides have a basis for cooperation and greater demand, such as trade in services, digital economy, and agricultural cooperation.
Openness is the most important driving force for RCEP
Seeking mutual benefit and win-win through market opening is an important driving force for RCEP.
RCEP adheres to the ASEAN principle of "open regionalism", and achieves mutual benefit, win-win results and shared development in openness and non-exclusivity.
For example, while promoting the overall level of openness in the region, RCEP fully considers the different development levels and economic needs of member states, establishes special and differential treatment clauses, and provides transitional arrangements for ASEAN least developed countries to make the low level of development and economic growth. Smaller countries benefit more from opening up.
In the future, openness will be its biggest advantage and driving force, whether it is promoting the construction of the 3.0 version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area or other regional cooperation frameworks centered on ASEAN.
Optimize the RCEP regional industrial chain supply chain value chain in a high-level opening.
At present, RCEP covers major economies in the East Asian production network, and the industrial division of labor in the region is basically formed.
From the perspective of regional development trends, to release the growth potential of RCEP and enhance the regional economic competitiveness of RCEP, it is still necessary to optimize the "three chains" in a high level of openness.
For example, to play the coordination role of ASEAN, promote the comprehensive opening of agriculture and manufacturing in the region, and use the RCEP rules of origin accumulation to build a closed-loop industrial chain and supply chain in East Asia.
According to the actual development situation and comparative advantages of each country, coordinate to promote the opening of service trade in the RCEP region, promote the deep integration of R&D technology and productive services of Japan and South Korea, manufacturing in China, and assembly in ASEAN, and promote the processing and manufacturing in the region to higher added value. Links are extended, and the division of labor status of East Asia in the global value chain is improved as a whole.
At the same time, the business environment will be optimized in the alignment of intra-regional rules, forming an important foundation for expanding intra-regional investment.
China's promotion of high-level opening up will form an important driving force for RCEP.
At present, China is accelerating the process of institutional opening up, which is characterized by the integration of rules, regulations, management and standards.
With China's structural transformation and the improvement of the level of openness to trade in services, it is expected that China's service imports from RCEP members will continue to grow rapidly after the new crown pneumonia epidemic, especially services such as tourism, medical health, intellectual property, telecommunications, finance and insurance will continue to grow. become the focus of imports.
At the same time, in cooperation with ASEAN, actively deploy border cross-border economic cooperation zones with the themes of agriculture, digital economy, tourism, medical care, etc., increase border opening policy adjustment and institutional innovation, and create a number of cooperation demonstration zones and free economic zones. .
Hainan Free Trade Port has the conditions to become an important hub for comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and ASEAN.
Hainan is geographically close to ASEAN countries and has a cultural affinity. It not only has the advantages of facing the forefront of ASEAN, being located in the center of RCEP, and being backed by the super-large Chinese mainland market, but also has the advantages of the highest level of opening-up policies and institutions.
To build a free trade port with world influence in Hainan is to give full play to its unique role and build it into a free economic zone for economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN, a demonstration zone for public health and health cooperation, a core area for blue partnership and a comprehensive Special zone for people-to-people exchanges.
At present, Hainan is promoting the construction of "headquarters base" for domestic enterprises to invest in the ASEAN market based on Hainan.
After RCEP came into effect, the region not only ushered in huge development opportunities, but also faced severe challenges from geopolitical changes and geopolitical competition.
In this specific context, it is even more necessary to give full play to the power of the RCEP think tank and the media.
The think tanks of each member state can establish a RCEP think tank alliance to carry out cooperative research, exchange and dialogue, and political advice on the promotion of relevant policies in the process of RCEP, creating an open academic exchange and cooperation platform among think tanks of RCEP member states, providing members Provide intellectual support for national policy decisions.
(Author: Chi Fulin, special researcher of Hainan Provincial Research Center for Socialist Theoretical System with Chinese Characteristics, President of China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute)