China News Service, Guangzhou, May 15 Question: The meteorological man behind the strongest precipitation in Guangdong this year

  AuthorWang JianWang Tianwei

  When the rainstorm hit Chishikeng New Village, Yingzui Village, Yuantan Town, Qingyuan City, the local government organized rescue forces to transfer the villagers to newly built houses; when the flood flooded Sanxiang Town, Zhongshan City, the official commanded all social forces to make scientific decisions and gain insight into risk points , to ensure the operation of the city... From the 10th to the 13th, Guangdong experienced the strongest May rainstorm in the province in the past 20 years. Guangdong successfully coped with a "big test" that could not tolerate mistakes. Inseparable from a group of silent dedication of the weather people.

  In the face of the "big test", "precise monitoring, accurate forecasting, and refined service" are the action creeds that Guangdong meteorologists always keep in mind in the tough battle of flood control and disaster relief, and also a powerful criterion for practice.

During this period, the Guangdong Meteorological Department strengthened monitoring, forecasting and early warning, strengthened departmental linkages, and built the first line of defense for disaster prevention and mitigation during the strongest precipitation process.

  "Combining the data from various models and the forecast of the extended period, the middle of May will usher in the strongest rainfall process this year with a wide range, long duration, large accumulated rainfall, strong short-term rainfall, and high disaster risk." At the beginning of May, the Guangdong Meteorological Observatory researched and judged the process of the strongest rainfall in a routine meeting; since the 8th, the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau has conducted an encrypted consultation on the refined forecast of heavy rainfall, strengthened monitoring, forecast and early warning, and focused on risk points and risk areas. , implement the town and village early warning mechanism, emergency response mechanism and rescue linkage mechanism.

  On the evening of the 11th, the forecast duty room of the Guangdong Meteorological Observatory was still brightly lit.

"As of the 11th, there have been heavy rains to heavy rains in northern Guangdong, the Pearl River Delta and western Guangdong, and local heavy rains. Our own regional numerical forecast model is still very accurate." The chief forecaster of the Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Wu Zhifang and colleagues They are discussing.

  In the face of "ferocious" heavy precipitation, the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau organized business technicians to repeatedly study and judge, and comprehensively used new technologies and old experience to make scientific predictions on the scope of rainfall, the maximum rainfall intensity, and the cumulative rainfall.

The rainstorm caused waterlogging in many places in Guangdong, and fire rescue personnel went to the front line to rescue the Guangdong Fire Rescue Corps.

  According to meteorological monitoring, from the 10th to the 13th, 21 cities in Guangdong Province experienced heavy rainstorms with daily rainfall exceeding 100 mm and above.

From 6:00 on the 10th to 8:00 on the 14th, the accumulated rainfall in Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Shanwei, Zhuhai, Shenzhen, and Qingyuan exceeded 500 mm.

In addition, during this process, the maximum hourly rain intensity in Yangjiang (Yangdong District, Yangxi County, Jiangcheng District), Shanwei (Red Bay District), Zhuhai (Jinwan District), and Jiangmen (Taishan City) exceeded 100 mm.

  "The forecast of heavy rainfall is not that simple. Our team of forecasters not only relies on the model that has been analyzed and summarized, but also needs to cooperate with the background field of the numerical forecast model to constantly adjust the falling area and magnitude of the rainstorm." Wu Zhifang frankly.

  In the face of extreme weather such as heavy rain, forecast accuracy is a daunting task.

The heavy rainfall process from the 10th to the 13th included the participation of warm-area torrential rains and monsoon rains, which many meteorologists are keen to tackle, and the superposition of "cold and warm opposites" of frontal rainfall. The circulation forms are extremely complex.

Under great pressure, Guangdong meteorologists carefully researched and judged, and presented accurate forecast conclusions and suggestions to decision-making departments in various places. Only a few sets of data, and the meticulous consideration behind them, confirmed the practice of refined meteorological forecast services. .

  According to the weather forecast, from the 10th in Longmen County, Huizhou City, there will be heavy rainfall in the next 12 hours.

The Longcheng Sub-district Office of Longmen County urgently held a heavy rainfall defense work deployment meeting, and organized various working groups to go deep into the front line to quickly deploy the heavy rainfall defense work.

  Weather warning is the "starting gun".

Pan Junfeng, deputy director of the Longcheng Sub-district Office, led the cadres of the "two committees" of the village and the village-based working group to quickly notify the villagers who lived in low-lying areas and were vulnerable to baptism one by one to transfer them immediately. In case of emergency, contact the village-based working group immediately.

  At 20:09 on the 10th, Longmen County issued the first red warning signal for heavy rain in 2022.

Pan Junfeng led the village-based working group to the Jiangxia Village Committee to organize emergency rescue.

The rain was getting heavier and heavier, and the village was flooded.

At 21:15 on the 10th, all seven people trapped in Xinsi Village were transferred and properly settled in the village committee.

  On the afternoon of the 11th, in Lutian Town, north of Conghua, Guangzhou, after the orange rainstorm warning signal was issued, all 327 people who should be transferred were transferred to the shelter.

Conghua Aotou Town, which has a red early warning signal, has done a good job of transferring people at the hidden danger point one by one, and all 4,262 people in the town have been transferred.

  According to statistics, from the 9th to the 13th, meteorological departments at all levels in the province issued a total of 440 rainstorm warning signals.

At the most critical and dangerous moment of dealing with heavy rainfall, behind the accurate forecast and early warning is the strong support of meteorological modernization construction achievements such as regional numerical weather model, intelligent grid weather forecast, and short-term proximity monitoring and early warning system. Targeted application of research-based business outcomes.