China News Service, Hong Kong, May 15th. The Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, Chen Maobo, published a blog on the 15th, saying that due to the global external environment and the fifth wave of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Hong Kong's economic growth forecast for this year was lowered to 1% to 2%. But Hong Kong people do not need to be too pessimistic. As long as the epidemic is under control, the Hong Kong economy is expected to stabilize and grow slightly.
Chen Maobo said in his blog that the epidemic severely hit the economic performance in the first few months of this year, causing the economy to shrink by 4% in the first quarter, interrupting the growth momentum of the previous four quarters. Continued tensions, international geopolitical tensions, rising external inflation and interest rate hikes have plagued Hong Kong's economic environment.
The unemployment rate in Hong Kong is expected to deteriorate further, he said.
However, in the past month or so, the epidemic has been gradually brought under control, and social distancing measures have been relaxed in stages. As long as the epidemic continues to stabilize, the unemployment rate is expected to bottom out and improve.
He continued that the United States has raised interest rates this year and is about to shrink its balance sheet. Under the linked exchange system, the widening of the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread has led to more carry trades, and the recent weak stock market has pushed the Hong Kong exchange rate to 7.85. A "weak-side convertibility guarantee" against one dollar.
However, the balance of Hong Kong's banking system and foreign exchange reserves are still abundant, and it has a solid ability to maintain the linked exchange rate system.
The SAR government has been closely monitoring the Hong Kong dollar and related derivatives markets for a long time, and there has been no abnormal activity.
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