On May 15, legislative elections will take place in Lebanon as the country continues to sink into a serious economic, social and political crisis.

In October 2019, the grassroots protest movement against elites and corruption sparked a wave of hope among the country's youth.

But this historic mobilization has not made it possible to stem the slow descent into hell of Lebanon, whose currency collapse has generated record inflation. 

With the election approaching, citizens hardly believe in the advent of real change.

Disillusioned, many young Lebanese have turned their backs on politics and are now primarily seeking to leave the country. 

Leaving to escape the “unknown” 

Perla only had one year left of her studies to obtain her chemistry degree at the American University of Beirut when she was accepted into an American university.

In the United States, the same course lasts an additional year.

However, the decision to leave was not difficult to make.

In August 2021, Perla packed her bags and booked a ticket.

"I was ready to do an extra year of study abroad rather than take the risk of staying in Lebanon and facing the unknown," she explains.

"I would return to Lebanon without hesitation if I could, but I intend to study medicine and the path is long. I prefer to start the journey where my future is clearer." 

The case of Perla is only one example among many others.

A study led by Suzanne Menhem, assistant professor and researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Lebanese University, and conducted among 1,023 young Lebanese aged 18 to 29, reveals that 75.6% of respondents hope to leave the Lebanon.

Among them, 26.7% have prepared, or are in the process of preparing, their immigration papers. 

The data for the study, which is expected to be published in an academic journal in the coming weeks, was collected in March and April 2021. Suzanne Menhem believes that it is very likely that this trend has since increased further, given the continued deterioration of the situation in the country. 

For Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, the exodus of young Lebanese graduates is far from being a new phenomenon.

But the movement has increased in recent years, coupled with a deeper renunciation of Lebanon.

According to him, many of those leaving today "don't want to look back". 

The impression that the country is doomed 

"The reasons (for this exodus) are clear. The prospects for improvement were stronger before," said Joseph Bahout.

"Today there is a deep-seated impression that the country is doomed - not only politically, but also socially and economically." 

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According to Suzanne Menhem, 90% of those interviewed in her study said the main reason for leaving was the economic crisis, while 67.5% said they wanted to leave because of the political situation. 

Jana, 24, was among thousands of young people who took part in the 2019 protests to denounce elite corruption and demand, among other things, the resignation of the government as well as snap elections.

However, as the 2022 legislative election approaches, she is no longer sure she wants to vote.

"The uprising was very real, but the political promises remained an illusion. I always knew that Lebanon was not stable, but for a long time I did not want to leave. Today, I am afraid not being able to do it,” she laments. 

Jana was accepted to a university abroad to pursue a master's degree.

She is waiting for her visa and hopes to be able to leave in August.

"Why would I vote and for whom? Even the alternative groups that emerged in the wake of the uprising could not form a unified voters list for the elections. Corruption is rooted in the system and among the locals." 

An exodus that threatens "the whole future of Lebanon"  

For Joseph Bahout, the excitement and hope expressed by the protesters in 2019 – especially among the youth – has disappeared today, giving way to apathy and disengagement from the population. 

"Some wonder why people don't revolt like in 2019, given that the current situation is much worse than then," he explains.

"But until you're stuck in the system, you're not willing to pay a high price to change it." 

In 2021, 79,134 people left Lebanon, according to Information International, an independent research and consultancy firm based in Beirut.

This is the largest wave of emigration recorded in five years. 

Fleeing Lebanon © AFP

"These figures reflect a decrease in commitment to the country which leads to a shortage of skilled labor and young workers," warns Joseph Bahout.

"In the long term, assuming that those leaving are from the middle classes, this exodus could exhaust democratic institutions and weaken the liberal social order." 

This prospect also worries Suzanne Menhem.

“The crises facing Lebanon have not only affected young people,” she explains.

“We have seen other subgroups of the population – such as doctors, lawyers and academics – also leave the country. The high percentage of young people seeking to emigrate not only threatens particular sectors, but the future whole of Lebanon. The more that leave, the more Lebanon loses its talent pool and the future key players in the decision-making process." 

Text adapted from English by David Rich

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