The world in question

The war in Ukraine, for how long?

Audio 03:12

Local residents walk amid the debris of a charred Russian tank next to destroyed houses in the village of Zalissya, northeast of kyiv, on April 19, 2022 © AFP / GENYA SAVILO

By: Bruno Daroux Follow

3 mins

The war continues in Ukraine.

Two months after the start of the Russian invasion, can we expect a long-lasting conflict? 

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The answer is probably yes.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has just said " 

 ".

In any case, two months after the launch of the invasion of Ukraine decided unilaterally by Vladimir Putin, a first observation is essential: the Russian president has not achieved his three initial objectives which were to occupy the whole of Ukrainian territory, to "denazify" the country and finally to demilitarize it. 

Failure on the first objective: the Russian offensive broke its teeth on the formidable resistance of the Ukrainian army and people everywhere in the country.

From then on, Russian troops had to withdraw from northern Ukraine without managing to bring down the capital kyiv.

Moscow had to review its strategy and focus on the south and east of the country where territorial conquests are very real.

► To read also: The day President Vladimir Putin claimed responsibility for taking Mariupol

The second objective was therefore to denazify the Ukrainian regime.

There too, it failed.

Not only is the government and administration still in place, but President Zelensky has become the embodiment of the fierce resistance of a nation that no longer wants to be enslaved to the Russian big brother.

Better or worse: this offensive greatly increased national sentiment and hatred towards Russia. 

As for the third objective, failure there again.

Not only is the Ukrainian army still there and fighting, but it is now supplied by a flow of arms and military equipment from NATO countries. 

Two months, then, and then?

What does Vladimir Putin want and can do?

Can we say, as Joe Biden has just done, that he will never occupy Ukraine?

One thing seems certain: undoubtedly furious with the difficulties encountered by his army, Putin has decided to concentrate all his efforts in the Donbass and against the port of Mariupol.

There is no doubt that the violent and devastating fighting will continue in the days and weeks to come. 

Putin must absolutely sell his muzzled and enlisted public opinion a decisive victory in the south and east of Ukraine.

Time is running out, because this victory must be proclaimed for May 9, the national celebration of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany in 1945. 

So there is this very short-term deadline.

After that ?

These territorial gains made, which is not yet the case, will the leader of the Kremlin consider that he has nevertheless obtained enough to embark on real negotiations?

Nothing is less sure. 

However, this would be a relatively comfortable negotiating position for Moscow which would allow it to consider discussions to emerge with its head held high from a conflict which is not going as planned. 

So that would be the best or the least bad solution.

But Putin can also remain focused, like a stubborn imperialist, on his initial objectives.

In which case, we would enter into a long-term conflict with an uncertain outcome and consequences, from a human, geopolitical and economic point of view. 

All of our daily, live coverage of the war in Ukraine.

© FMM Graphic Studio

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• Ukraine

• Russia

• Volodymyr Zelensky

• Vladimir Poutine

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