Chronicle of raw materials
War in Ukraine: tension on the seed market
Audio 01:40
At this stage, the forecasts of the players in the sector announce a 2022 harvest in Ukraine which will reach at best 60% of the usual production.
© CC0 Pixabay/Contributor
By: Marie-Pierre Olphand Follow
2 mins
Seed supply for Ukrainian farmers looks complicated for at least the next two years.
Bad news for future harvests.
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Ukraine produces two-thirds of its seeds and imports one-third, mostly from France.
France sends commercial seeds intended directly to produce grain and so-called basic seeds which are intended to be multiplied to produce seeds sold the following year.
However, deliveries of this third of French seeds were stopped at the very beginning of the war.
They have since resumed and, according to the latest figures from the French Seeds Union issued at the end of March – estimates to be taken with a grain of salt as these figures can change – 75% of corn and sunflower seeds, 90% of those of beets and 50% of vegetables have crossed the border and are now on Ukrainian territory.
It is difficult to know, however, the percentage that has arrived at the farmer, whether we are talking about imported or local seeds.
According to the UFS, 60% of corn seeds and 90% of sunflower seeds would have arrived safely or at least at local distributors.
The other unknown is whether they can be used, because farmers are facing a problem of fuel, and labor.
► To read also: Russia: Dmitry Medvedev proposes to no longer deliver agricultural products to "unfriendly" countries
Fewer seeds in 2023 and therefore less harvest
At this stage, the forecasts of the players in the sector announce a 2022 harvest in Ukraine which will reach at best 60% of the usual production.
And it will take time to get back to normal.
The country risks ending up with 50% less seed by next year, in particular because some farmers will give priority to the crop itself rather than to seed multiplication.
So even if farmers can return to their fields in 2023, they will be limited in production.
The country has entered a "tunnel of
at least
two years " or more according to Claude Tabel, president of the UFS, which will disrupt the seed sector and the international market if Ukraine can no longer export the volumes of recent years. .
► To read also: War in Ukraine: the sugar market on borrowed time
French seed companies could help Ukraine in 2024
French companies in the sector should see their turnover drop by 20%, according to the UFS.
But the financial risk that weighs remains difficult to assess, because often part of the seeds purchased is paid for after the harvest.
The French seed sector is waiting for urgent support measures to help companies in France.
Because the objective is to be able to secure and guarantee the production of seed in France in 2023, in particular to help Ukrainians to obtain supplies of sunflower seed in 2024.
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