Since February 24 this year, when the Ukrainian campaign began, 4.6 million people have left the country.
Most left in a western direction, to Europe.
The number is significant.
The migration crisis of 2015, when immigrants from Syria, Afghanistan, North (and not only North) Africa rushed to Europe, their number was less than 2 million (according to various estimates, from 1 million to 1.8 million), while the Old Continent shook considerably.
Of course, the refugee figures alone cannot explain the problem.
The gender and age composition of migrants is very important.
Old people, women and children are one thing, peppy men in their prime (and peppy teenagers) are another.
The cultural and educational aspect is also important.
From the complete cultural alienation of migrants to the autochthonous population, which makes peaceful assimilation difficult, to incomplete cultural and linguistic isolation, in which it is easier to assimilate the newcomer.
Traditions are also important, as are the current circumstances of the country where the migrants came from.
A more or less orderly life is one thing, a wild freeman, a war of all against all is another.
Finally, the motivation of migrants is also important.
From the desire to simply run, even as a carcass, even as a scarecrow, to a more well-fed and more peaceful country and there to catch on in the field of peaceful labor to the desire to conquer, establish their own rules and bring true light to the natives.
Accordingly, the position of the authorities and society of the recipient country is important.
From the strict “you are not here here, we have our own rules, if you please obey them” to complete connivance: “They have suffered so much.”
What kind of connivance, which seems to be very humane, can harbor the seeds of future great strife.
It is hardly possible to quickly and at the same time deeply investigate the migration wave.
There would be some way to solve the urgent current tasks of accommodating unexpected guests.
Especially now there is no time to talk about the prospects of European organized crime in the new circumstances.
Although the question can become very relevant.
The fact is that any migration wave (and not necessarily of a military origin, it can be purely economic) reshapes the existing structure of the population.
And that means the structure of ethnic crime or, to put it mildly, deviant behavior.
Indeed, in this area (even in this especially) fierce competition reigns and some ethnic groups replace others.
At the beginning of the last century, the Apaches, who robbed both peaceful street passers-by (in the Russian Empire it was called “very fugly”), as well as banking and entertainment establishments, began their activities in Belleville and Montmartre, then spread it to all of Paris and all of France .
The brothers were still the same.
But by the 1930s, the ethnic French Apaches “died like an obre;
and there was no tribe or clan left of them.
They began to be replaced by representatives of other ethnic groups.
In post-war Germany, first the southern Italians appeared as organized criminals, ousting the Germans, then the Yugoslavs swept away the Italians, those - Albanians, those - Arabs and people of Caucasian nationality.
Against the background of which the Italian dons of bygone times already looked like white and fluffy bunnies - everything is very fluid.
The picture is similar in France.
There were big fights between organized criminals, who, with the passage of time, became, as it were, both autochthonous and those who came in large numbers here.
The criminal world is updated.
In the case of the Ukrainians, it cannot be said that all of them showed the admiring Europe examples of law-abiding and even just decent behavior.
Sometimes they behave very indecently.
It would seem that one can expect that in Berlin and Munich tomorrow there will be a "father of the old fathers."
But in fairness, it should be noted that domestic indecency and hooligan inclinations alone are not enough for this ethnic group to become the king of the hill.
Still, organized crime requires discipline and strict adherence to a peculiarly understood code of honor from its participants.
This is the law of the wolf pack, and wolves are highly organized social animals.
See The Godfather and other instructive books.
Whereas, fortunately for the European natives, everything observed now does not speak enough about the high social organization of the heroes of Ukraine.
With indecent behavior, they can greatly darken (however, already darkened to the very worst) European life, but they still do not look capable of creating alternative social structures (if you like, anti-structures).
Success in the field of organized crime requires more serious talents and, scary to say, a more advanced culture.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.