What to do with the "pre-evacuation" of 460,000 people?

March 7, 21:33

What would you do if you received extraordinary information that "the possibility of a large earthquake is higher than usual"?

Do you think you should evacuate in advance?

Why don't you think about how to act at the “time” that you may visit someday?

(Nankai Trough Earthquake Temporary Information Coverage Group)

A close call?

An emergency press conference that attracted attention

This is the dawn of January 22nd.

At an emergency press conference held at the Japan Meteorological Agency in Toranomon, Tokyo, the word "Nankai Trough" was unprecedentedly heard.

Reporter: What is your current judgment regarding the relationship with the Nankai Trough?

Japan Meteorological Agency "We hold an evaluation review meeting with a margin (magnitude) of 6.8 or higher. It's just that we haven't reached that point. So far."

Reporter: Is the mechanism of occurrence different from the expected Nankai Trough giant earthquake?

Japan Meteorological Agency "According to future investigations, the plate boundaries do not appear to have slipped when looking at the earthquakes that are occurring."

In the earthquake with a maximum seismic intensity of 5 or higher that occurred off the coast of Miyazaki and Oita prefectures after 1:00 am on that day, the magnitude indicating the magnitude of the earthquake was updated to 6.4 and then to 6.6.

The magnitude of the preliminary information (under investigation) that tells us to investigate the relationship with the Nankai Trough earthquake is 6.8 or more.

It was just a few minutes away.

Immediately after the earthquake, the disaster prevention reporter was struck by the magnitude numbers of the Earthquake Early Warnings received on SNS, and was prepared to say, "Is this the first announcement?"

I don't know when it will happen, but evacuate?

Regarding the extraordinary information, while some people said "I'm glad I didn't come out" on SNS, I got a lot of attention again, saying "I have to know before going out".

Why did it get so much attention?

Temporary information is so significant that, in some cases, "pre-evacuation" before an earthquake is required.

There are two types of temporary information, "Giant earthquake warning" and "Giant earthquake caution", and when the examination begins, the temporary information "Under investigation" will be issued.

"Under investigation" will be announced when an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 or higher occurs.

This is why it attracted attention this time.

Large-scale measures such as "preliminary evacuation" are required when a huge earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or more occurs and "giant earthquake warning" is announced.

The Nankai Trough giant earthquake does not just shift the hypocenter area at once.

It has been confirmed in the past that after a huge earthquake occurs in half of the epicenter area such as the Tonankai and Nankai (= half crack), then an earthquake occurs in the other half.

Click here for details on "Nankai Trough Earthquake Temporary Information"

Possibility of large-scale "pre-evacuation" that has come to light

Prior evacuation is required only in areas where evacuation from the tsunami is not in time after the earthquake, but there is also a national policy that "the specific target area will be decided by the local government", even after the information is introduced. The designation did not proceed easily.

It has been three years since the start of temporary information.

We conducted a questionnaire survey from Kanto to 139 municipalities in Kyushu, which are being asked to consider, to investigate the situation.

As a result, 90% have completed the examination and the overall situation has become visible.

Municipalities painted in red are those that have completed the designation of areas for advance evacuation, that is, there are areas that call for advance evacuation when the temporary information "Giant Earthquake Warning" is issued.

57% of the total, more than half.

We asked each local government about the people to be evacuated in advance, and the total number of respondents was 433,650.

Some local governments answered that "the specific number of people cannot be calculated", and it is expected that the number will actually increase.

What is your area?

Click here for details on "pre-evacuation target areas".

This is a classification of the people targeted for pre-evacuation by the number of people.

Municipalities with more than 1000 people shown in red are the most common.

More than 10,000 people are shown in purple.

Given the nature of the information, it can be imagined that it will be a fairly large-scale evacuation action, even if all the cities, towns and villages do not evacuate in advance at the same time.

Not enough shelters!

As the evacuation target area has been designated, specific issues have emerged.

The question is where to evacuate.

When asked if they could secure sufficient evacuation shelters in advance, 40% of the respondents answered that they could not secure them, including the outlook.

The main reason for all of them was that the number of people targeted for evacuation in advance was more than 1000 in the municipalities, which exceeded the capacity of the evacuation shelters to be set up.

I visited a local government that showed a difficult situation by answering the questionnaire.

Nachikatsuura Town, Wakayama Prefecture, which is close to the epicenter and takes only 3 minutes to reach a 1-meter tsunami.

The target is 60% of the inhabitants, 8,000 people.

The area between the sea and the mountains is densely populated with houses, and of course there are not enough shelters.

For this reason, we are considering using accommodation facilities in the town as evacuation facilities.

It is based on creating a system that can be distributed to accommodation facilities and evacuate in the event of heavy rain.

However, there are a lot of issues to be solved, such as what to do with the cost burden and what to do when there are guests.

Shin Masuda, General Manager, Disaster Prevention Countermeasures Office, Nachikatsuura Town General Affairs Division

"There is a limit to increasing the number of evacuation centers in this area. think"

Earthquakes can occur, but “maintain social activity as much as possible”

If you explain it like this, you may think, "Is it a problem only for some people on the coast?", But unfortunately it is not.

When evacuation is required in advance, it is the stage when a huge earthquake of magnitude 8 class is occurring in the Nankai region and the Tokai-Tonankai region.

The violent shaking and the high tsunami have already had a great impact on the whole country, and some people have already evacuated.

In that situation, it is said that there is a risk of a huge earthquake in another area.

The area affected by the Nankai Trough extends to overlap the "Pacific Belt".

If the turmoil spreads, it could have a great impact on the Japanese economy as a whole.

Areas that are not flooded by the tsunami may also shake violently.

If you try to prevent the disaster as much as possible, you may decide to avoid long-distance travel such as business trips, and elderly people may be worried about going out.

I'm worried about things like whether it's better to shop after the earthquake, or whether it's better to take a day off from the company.

However, this information is highly uncertain.

An earthquake does not always occur within a week.

In some cases, it was two years later, and the government states that "the probability of an earthquake occurring within a week is about once in a dozen or so times."

"Eight out of ten, nine will come off."

Therefore, the national government also states that "society as a whole needs to maintain social activities as much as possible by governments and businesses."

Even when evacuating, you are basically supposed to prepare your own clothes and food.

The impact is likely to be nationwide, but the areas of pre-evacuation are more serious.

When asked what concerns the local government had in multiple answers, the most common answer was "confusion due to lack of information penetration."

In the free text box, more frank voices were received than expected.

"It is expected that many citizens will panic when the information is actually released. It is unknown how much social activity can be maintained."

"Many elderly people live alone, and not all shelters have restaurants or convenience stores. It could lead to the distribution of town stockpiles."

"Many staff at the government office will have to spend on shelter operations and goods transportation, making it difficult to continue the original administrative services."

From thinking "What do you do? I!"

Is it possible to make use of this information?

We spoke with Professor Katsuya Yamori of the Kyoto University Disaster Prevention Research Institute, who has studied the evacuation behavior of residents.

Mr. Yamori pointed out that "there is a decisive point in the dissemination and enlightenment activities so far."

Professor Katsuya Yamori, Kyoto University Disaster Prevention Research Institute

"Many local governments say that they are focusing on enlightenment activities, but please give the residents the basic explanations provided by the Cabinet Office and the Japan Meteorological Agency as guidelines. For example, it's just "flowing". Efforts are being made to properly convey to residents and companies that "this kind of thing will happen in our lives in my town when temporary information comes out." I need it. "

Yamori's research group collaborated with high school students in Kuroshio Town, Kochi Prefecture, where a tsunami of up to 34 meters is expected, to create video teaching materials to give them an opportunity to think about what will happen to our lives. rice field.

An animation is introduced about the flow until a huge earthquake occurred in a remote area and the announcement of temporary information was announced, and if you were running a store, if you were in charge of a welfare facility, etc. The situation is explained.

Therefore, you are forced to make choices such as "whether to keep the store" or "whether to close it".

The aim is to take up familiar and urgent issues and draw them to their own position to think about them.

Mr. Yamori immediately asked the residents and government officials of Kuroshio Town to watch the completed video.

In the part "If you are in charge of a welfare facility and are asked to accept the elderly in advance evacuation", the person in charge of the town hall on the side requesting evacuation also said that it was difficult to make a decision. ..

In addition to this, there is a video that a week passed without an earthquake if a person living along the coast was spending time in a shelter.

Will I go home, will I stay a little longer, and if so, how long will I stay?

I was reminded that all the questions have no correct answer.

Kuroshio Town staff

"I would like to say that the government office accepts evacuees, but ... I'm worried that the facility will accept other services even though there are regular services."

By responding to "both glares" instead of "whether to wake up or not"

Mr. Yamori thinks that the current Corona disaster response will come to life when considering the response to temporary information.

Professor Katsuya Yamori, Kyoto University Disaster Prevention Research Institute

"I think that many people have learned that there is no reliable information because of the corona disaster. Whether or not to go to work tomorrow, children will go to school. I think that everyone is worried about whether it is okay to go or not. Many people experience that there is a problem that there is no correct answer, and everyone wants to think about a society that has no absolute correct answer but is a little better. I've been doing trial and error for the last few years. The same thing will definitely happen when extra information comes out. "

He emphasizes that it is necessary to deal with "this and that" = "both glare" instead of "this or that" whether or not an earthquake will occur.

Correspondence of both sides Selected municipality

We visited Kochi City as a municipality that is searching for the “both glare” of earthquakes and daily life.

In Kochi City, there is a plan to call for evacuation of more than 5,000 people in the coastal area in advance, but due to the wide range of inundation, the evacuation shelters that cannot be completely used are only on high ground and far from the city.

When extraordinary information is released, we must consider how to commute to the center as well as the elderly.

Therefore, Kochi City decided to set up an evacuation shelter in consideration of the balance with daily life.

In addition to evacuation shelters such as hills where safety is our top priority, we decided to open a place where even if the surroundings are flooded, the upper floors will not be used and lives can be protected as "special standard" evacuation shelters.

Ask the residents to choose a shelter according to their situation.

It is an attempt to deal with earthquakes and daily life with "both glances".

Mr. Kennobu Ohno, Chief of Disaster Prevention Policy Division, Kochi City

"Temporary information is not predictive, and some people have jobs while they cannot be sure when an earthquake will occur. Anyway, in order to balance normal life and disaster prevention measures. I want to be able to choose whether to protect my life on a hill or to prioritize my life while preserving my life at a minimum. "

For "clues" instead of new "issues"

It can be said that the designation of pre-evacuation by the local government is almost complete, and the response is shifting to the next stage such as securing evacuation shelters and maintaining daily life.

Professor Yamori points out that we and the government do not think that new issues have increased, but that taking action will eventually lead to mitigation of damage.

Professor Katsuya Yamori, Kyoto University Disaster Prevention Research Institute

"There are a certain number of people who think that the more they become familiar with temporary information, the more information they will get, but of course there is no warning and a huge earthquake will come, so we have to prepare for both. There is no contradiction in preparing for the earthquake. For example, by considering the evacuation destination in advance, you will be aware of the need to improve the capacity and environment of the evacuation center of the local government. Even in the event of an earthquake and tsunami, it will only be useful and will not be negative. The government has also gained another clue to prepare for the earthquake and tsunami, rather than adding new challenges and extra work. It's important to think about it. "

The Nankai Trough earthquake temporary information is often shunned because it is difficult to understand and has a great deal of uncertainty, but it may be possible to reduce the damage by making use of the experience of the Corona disaster.

I would like to continue interviewing for better utilization, including consideration of easy-to-understand communication methods.

* What is your area?

Click here for details on "pre-evacuation target areas".

* Click here for details on answering questionnaires from all 139 municipalities.

Yuta Okubo ,

Reporter, Social Affairs Department Joined

in 2012 In

charge of disaster prevention and the Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Reporter of the Social Affairs Department Goichi

Miyahara

Joined in 2008

Responsible for disaster prevention and disaster mitigation coverage

Wakayama Broadcasting Station

Nanki Tanabe Branch Reporter

Ryo Fukuda

Joined in 2018

Kochi Broadcasting Station Reporter

Shiori Ito

Joined 2016

Kochi Broadcasting Station

Kuroshio Branch Reporter

Yasuyo Mori

Joined in 2013