The natural growth rate of Jiangsu's permanent population turned negative for the first time, and the age of women's first marriage was nearly 30 years old
A recent report released on the website of the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the natural growth rate of Jiangsu's permanent population in 2021 will be -1.12‰.
This is the first time that Jiangsu's annual natural population growth rate has turned negative since the founding of New China.
Jiangsu's annual natural population growth rate turned negative for the first time
According to the analysis of the article "The Natural Growth Rate of Jiangsu Permanent Resident Population Turning Negative for the First Time in 2021" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") published on the website of the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, it is calculated based on the sample survey data on population changes of 1‰ in 2021 and approved by the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2021, the permanent population birth rate in Jiangsu will be 5.65‰, the population death rate will be 6.77‰, and the natural population growth rate will be -1.12‰.
This is the first time that Jiangsu's annual natural population growth rate has turned negative since the founding of New China.
According to this calculation, the natural growth of the population will reduce about 95,100 people.
However, population growth includes natural growth and mechanical growth (ie, net inflow of population).
In the case of the inflow of people from outside the province, the permanent population of Jiangsu still increased by 281,000 last year, that is to say, the mechanical growth of Jiangsu's permanent population last year reached 376,100, a record high in the past five years.
The natural growth rate of Jiangsu's permanent population turned negative for the first time, mainly due to the decline in the number of births and the birth rate.
From 2016 to 2019, the number of births in Jiangsu's permanent population began to show a sustained and slight decline, but it still remained above 700,000 each year.
Table: Birth population data in Jiangsu over the years since 1978 (Data source: CBN reporter based on "Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook 2021", 2021 Jiangsu Provincial Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development)
According to the calculation of the birth rate, the number of births in Jiangsu in 2021 is about 479,800.
Combining with the data of the "Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook 2021", it is found that this is also the first time since 1978 (the yearbook has released data since 1978) below the 500,000 mark.
In addition, the birth rate of the permanent population dropped by 1 percentage point from the previous year, falling below 6 per 1,000 for the first time.
In terms of population aging, last year, Jiangsu's population aged 65 and over was 14.496 million, accounting for 17.04%, ranking among the top in the country.
According to the analysis of the aforementioned report, according to the demographic criteria, the proportion of the population aged 60 and above is more than 10%, which is an elderly society. Jiangsu has reached this standard in the mid-to-late 1980s.
With the continuous increase in the number of the elderly population, under the status quo that Jiangsu's medical and health conditions and social security levels continue to improve, and the life expectancy of the elderly population continues to extend, the annual increase in the number of deaths in the province is not large.
After 2002, the annual death toll has stabilized at around 520,000, and in 2020 it will be 549,900.
So it was the sharp drop in births that caused the rapid decline in natural population growth.
The natural population growth rate in 2020 will be 0.17‰, close to zero; in 2021, the natural population growth rate will turn negative.
The average age of first marriage for women in Jiangsu has reached 29.66 years old
According to the analysis of the report, the decline in the number of births in the permanent population of Jiangsu Province is mainly due to three factors:
First, the number of women of childbearing age has dropped significantly.
The births of most women of childbearing age are concentrated between the ages of 20 and 39.
The number of females aged 20-39 in the province was 13,051,500 and 12,739,000 in 2000 and 2010 respectively, a decrease of only 312,500 in 10 years; 4.7 times the decrease in the last 10 years; the preliminary estimate for 2021 is 11.15 million, a decrease of more than 110,000 from the previous year.
The reduction in the number of women aged 20-39 directly affects the number of births.
Nationally, the significant reduction in women of childbearing age is also the primary factor behind the significant reduction in births.
On January 20 this year, at the regular press conference of the National Health and Medical Commission, Yang Jinrui, deputy director of the Department of Population and Family of the National Health and Medical Commission, introduced that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the number of women aged 20-34 during the prosperous reproductive period decreased by an average of 3.4 million per year. , a decrease of 4.73 million in 2021 compared to 2020.
This is an important factor driving the decline in the number of births.
Professor Dong Yuzheng, a population expert and dean of the Guangdong Population Development Research Institute, analyzed the first financial analysis that the birth population continued to decline. There are many factors. The first is the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, which is the source and basis of the gradual decrease in the birth population. .
Second, the age of women's first marriage has been delayed.
According to the analysis of the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, with the development of the times, the average age of women at first marriage in Jiangsu has steadily increased.
The average age of women at first marriage was 23.22 years old in 2000, 23.76 years old in 2010, and 29.66 years old in 2020.
2010 and 2000 are basically the same, and the age of women's first marriage in 2020 is nearly 6 years later than in 2010, close to 30 years old.
As the age of first marriage continues to be delayed, women's fertility is delayed at the same time.
Third, the educational level of women has been greatly improved.
The higher the education level of women, the higher their expectations of self-employment, the greater the conflict between fertility and employment, and the higher the cost of having children. Therefore, women with higher education levels tend to have fewer children.
According to the analysis of the report, among women with higher education, the majority have one child, close to 70%; those with high school education have an equal proportion of first and second children, both around 47%; Most of them had two or more children, accounting for 63.42% and 59.21% respectively.
Among the nulliparous women, more than half of them are highly educated.
It can be seen that with the improvement of women's education level, it will lead to fewer or no births.
"In the future, these three factors will continue to affect the number of births in our province. In addition, the new crown pneumonia epidemic will also have a certain impact on the marriage and childbirth arrangements of some young people." The report pointed out.
Encouraging childbirth to enlarge: subsidize the cost of enterprises
It is worth noting that the "Jiangsu Province Implementation Plan for Optimizing Birth Policies to Promote Long-term Balanced Development of the Population" has been issued recently. 26 policy measures have been determined.
According to the plan, for couples who have children in compliance with the policy, the woman will enjoy an extended maternity leave of 60 days to 158 days on the basis of the maternity leave stipulated by the state, and the man will enjoy 15 days of nursing leave.
Promote the implementation of parental leave system. Before the child turns 3 years old, both husband and wife enjoy 10 days of parental leave each year.
At the same time, Jiangsu has improved the labor cost sharing mechanism.
Explore a reasonable sharing mechanism for labor costs during maternity leave.
For the social insurance fees paid by the enterprise during the maternity leave of female employees, 50% of the subsidy will be given to those who give birth to the second child, and 80% of the subsidy will be given to those who give birth to the third child.
Dong Yuzheng said that Jiangsu's proposal to adopt the method of subsidizing social insurance expenses is a positive and effective measure, which is worth learning from other regions.
In the future, it is necessary to explore and implement other related methods and measures such as tax reduction and exemption, performance incentives, etc., and take multiple measures to make a combination of punches to effectively reduce the burden of employers' holiday labor costs.
Author: Lin Xiaozhao