The world in question
The first lessons of the crisis in Ukraine
Audio 03:02
March 3, 2022 in Chernigov, Ukraine, after a raid by Russian troops on the city center.
(Illustrative photo) AP - Dmytro Kumaka
By: Bruno Daroux Follow
3 mins
The invasion of Ukraine decided by Vladimir Putin has already had many consequences, in Russia, in Ukraine and in the world.
What are the first geopolitical lessons that we can draw from this crisis in Europe?
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Vladimir Putin's terrible decision puts an end to 75 years of near-complete peace on the European continent – although there have been localized conflicts during this period, in the Balkans, in Georgia and of course already in Ukraine, Crimea and the Donbass in 2014. Beyond Ukraine, Vladimir Putin's Russia is consciously embarking on an open confrontation with the Western world.
Putin calls into question the precarious balance that prevailed until then.
And he does it precisely because he believes that the West and their military organization, NATO, want to go too far in extending their area of influence, by offering Ukraine to join.
From the Russian point of view, this is unacceptable expansionism.
This is why Putin demanded a guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO.
Even if, in reality, this prospect is more than distant and highly unlikely, precisely because certain European countries are well aware that this is a red line for Moscow.
In any case, it is one of the two reasons put forward by Moscow: neutrality, the demilitarization of Ukraine.
The other is denazification, a highly questionable political objective that aims to change the political regime in Kiev to install leaders subservient to Moscow.
These two official objectives, in particular the one that speaks of denazifying the country, do not convince Westerners, who suspect Vladimir Putin of having a hidden objective: to seek to reconstitute the Russian empire, that is to say Russia plus the Belarus, already in satellite, and Ukraine, which would be annexed, in whole or in part.
With this intervention, Putin calls into question the European order from the 90s. He was convinced that the Europeans and the Americans were going to let him do it with some sanctions, as in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.
But things are not going as planned and we are already seeing the first lessons of this major crisis.
This concerns NATO first of all, which certainly does not intervene directly in Ukraine, but considerably strengthens its eastern border as certain countries fear an extension of Russian aggressiveness – the Baltic countries, Poland, Romania.
And above all, NATO speaks firmly and with one voice.
The same lesson, even more striking, for the European Union, which has just carried out a Copernican revolution in a few days: the demanding and constructive dialogue with the Kremlin is over, now is the time for harsh sanctions, and above all an affirmation of its will to strengthen its armament.
And from this point of view, the turn taken by Germany is quite astounding.
This Ukrainian crisis definitively buried German pacifism.
Finally, the last lesson at this stage, Russia finds itself very isolated on the international scene.
With very few allies who voted like her at the UN, only five, plus around forty wait-and-see countries.
India, China, and also states like Cuba or Venezuela.
And finally 141 out of 193 countries that have condemned Russia.
A scathing disavowal which for the moment does not prevent Vladimir from continuing his crazy adventure.
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