Annual deaths from extreme heat in Spain will go from 1,500 to 8,000 in 2050 if emissions remain high

• Theresa Warrior

  Madrid

Updated Tuesday, March 1, 2022-01:58

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• New IPCC report Crop losses due to drought and extreme heat have tripled in Europe in 50 years

• Drought At kilometer zero of the Spain that runs out of water: "One more day of sun is another day of ruin"

In the middle of winter, the drought that a large part of Spain is suffering due to the low rainfall in recent months worries farmers and ranchers, who fear the scenario they will have to face in summer if the rains do not remedy it.

The report on the impacts of climate change published on Monday by scientists from the IPCC, the UN Intergovernmental Group of Experts, adds new reasons for concern, as they show how the frequency of droughts has already increased and they predict that it will continue to do so in the coming years in all emission reduction scenarios.

"We need a rapid and drastic cut in emissions,"

said Thelma Krug, vice president of the IPCC, in a meeting with Spanish journalists.

Precisely the Mediterranean region is one of the most exposed to the effects of climate change, according to this report focused on the impacts, which is the second of the three parts that make up the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, and which does not bring good news for our country.

As reflected in chapter 13, Spain will be one of the European countries most threatened by extreme heat.

If emissions remain high, extreme heat waves that are now infrequent and occur a few times a century will occur every year.

The number of annual deaths associated with high temperatures by mid-century could increase from the current 1,500 to 8,000 in a scenario of very high greenhouse gas emissions.

"The southern Mediterranean is an area of ​​relative vulnerability to climate change with great asymmetries," says Jofre Carnicer, lead author of chapter 13 of this report.

As this researcher from the Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF) explains, the impact of global warming in the Mediterranean is being faster than in other areas of the world:

points out.

As an example of this greater vulnerability to climate change on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, the researcher mentions "the rise in sea level in Egypt, a country of 103 million inhabitants. Only in the Nile Delta is it expected that more than 6.3 Millions of people could be seriously affected if the sea level rises above 80 cm, a scenario contemplated with the trends in greenhouse gas emissions that we have today".

less rain

In all emission mitigation scenarios, even if they are significantly reduced, says Carnicer, there will be an increase in droughts in the Mediterranean, so to avoid the worst impact, he stresses the need to "reduce emissions in the next 20 years forcefully."

The IPCC estimate, he adds, is that

a risk in an area that is already naturally exposed to drought."

According to Carnicer, reductions of between 5% and 20% are expected depending on our ability to reduce emissions.

Droughts cost Spain already annual losses of around 1,500 million euros.

According to the IPCC, crop losses due to drought and extreme heat have tripled across Europe in the last 50 years and are projected to increase with continued warming, with most of these losses occurring in southern Europe. as the most suitable agricultural areas will move north.

To the reduction of agricultural use in Spain will be added the threat of more frequent pests, for example, of wood beetles in the north of Spain.

Water stress will affect a high percentage of the population in Spain, which will range between 18 and 54% depending on how quickly emissions are reduced.

If they are not drastically cut, Spain will have to face other costs and biodiversity losses associated with forest fires and the

Thus, the needs for air conditioning buildings could double in 2035 and multiply by almost 3.5 in 2065 if carbon emissions are not reduced.

Extreme rainfall linked to climate change and sea level rise constitute another risk in the Mediterranean area that could be reduced with ambitious mitigation measures.

mitigate and adapt

To combat climate change, we must mitigate emissions but also adapt.

"The high risk of drought makes us rethink some of the mitigation strategies," says Marta Rivera-Ferre, co-author of chapter 8 of the report and researcher at Ingenio (CSIC-Polytechnic University of Valencia).

"There are adaptation strategies that may be appropriate in some parts of Spain, such as irrigation, but not in others."

To combat climate change, he adds, one of those strategies is

This researcher specializing in food safety recalls that there are different types of responses.

Technological ones tend to receive a lot of attention, but there are also solutions based on mimicking nature's responses: "They are possible strategies for rural and urban areas, for example, green roofs, which in Europe are very underdeveloped compared to other technologies. They are cheaper but they are quite effective," he says.

When it comes to biodiversity, scientists have already seen that

.

If global emissions are not rapidly reduced, posidonia seagrass beds in the Mediterranean will be extinct by 2050 due to more frequent and intense marine heat waves.

The IPCC stresses that humans are very dependent on ecosystems for our security, so another adaptation strategy is to increase protection in the planet's natural areas, going from the 2020 commitment to protect 16% of the land area to 30 or 50%.

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