Ukrainian military invasion Fierce information warfare What happened 9 hours before the start of the attack on February 25, 18:25

A large-scale military invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

Nine hours before the attack began, senior U.S. government officials made unusual statements as if they were predicting an invasion.

Information warfare that discloses intelligence and confidential information that would not normally be made public.

What is the aim, we will approach the actual situation.

(Kohei Tsuji, Jerusalem Branch, Taichi Soga, Washington Branch)

Unusual information warfare

A senior U.S. Department of Defense official disclosed unusual information to us reporters on the 23rd.

"Russian troops are at their maximum ready, and about 80% of them are ready to be dispatched at any time."

Russia's military invasion of Ukraine began only nine hours later.

This information is called intelligence / confidential information.

Information obtained or analyzed by US intelligence agencies, etc., and is not normally disclosed.

However, over the situation in Ukraine, the US government has taken an unusual strategy of proactively disclosing such confidential information.

This is a strategy called "Deterrence by disclosure", which aims to control the other party's initiative and deter actions.

Since the beginning of this month, the Biden administration in the United States has responded to a series of interviews and interviews with high-ranking government officials, disclosing confidential information such as the timing of the invasion by the Russian army and the number of troops.

President Biden himself said, "The invasion will take place within a few days," and "I am confident that Putin has decided to invade."

In addition, Russia is planning a so-called "false flag operation" to forge information as if it had been attacked by the Ukrainian side in order to obtain an excuse for the invasion.

"It's a whole different dimension to disclose information on this scale," said Stephen Flanagan, senior researcher at Rand Corporation in the United States, who was a member of the NSC National Security Council under the Obama administration. I don't remember any examples of the amount of information that was made public in the past. "

What are the benefits of disclosing confidential information?

It is said that the purpose of disclosing confidential information is because it has the following merits.

1: If you know the inside of your hand, you will control the tip and promote behavior change

2: Prevent the justification of the invasion based on false information

3: Disclosure the actions that the other party can take and the next move with allies In addition, by

issuing

information that "the invasion is not strange at any time", the Russian side can be denied, and if Russia actually invades after that, President Putin's international credibility can be reduced. It has also been pointed out.

However, it is said that there are risks associated with this method.

By disclosing confidential information,

▼ there is a risk of endangering the source of information or knowing how to collect information,

▼ repeating that the invasion is imminent, like a "wolf boy"

If you don't follow the disclosed information, you will lose your credibility

.

Did the strategy succeed?

Despite the US "disclosure deterrence" strategy, Putin embarked on a military invasion.

Although the accuracy of the confidential information in the United States, which has been said to be "invasion is always possible," has been proved, the results show that the attack could not be deterred.

However, the view that this strategy failed due to the military invasion is wrong, says former Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman of the United States, who is familiar with information warfare.

"I don't think the Biden administration thought that the'disclosure deterrence'strategy would stop the invasion, because if Putin decides to invade, no one can stop it. Rather, this intelligence war delays the start of the invasion. Maybe it was to earn time. "

By exposing the other person's hands, he surprised the Russian side and gained time to take the next response.

In the meantime, the Biden administration was seeking to ease diplomatic tensions and prepare sanctions with its allies in the event of an invasion.

In fact, the day after Russia's military invasion, the West came together to announce sanctions.

The US publicly warned that the possibility of an invasion was extremely high, and allies shared the same sense of crisis and were able to proceed with preparations.

Information warfare, how do you see other countries?

In the event of a conflict, methods of disclosing intelligence, controlling the opponent's aircraft, and justifying their own attacks are becoming mainstream in each country.

One of them is Israel in the Middle East.

Deterrence against hostile Iran and combat with Palestinian militants also use these strategies.

Professor Uzi Rabi of Tel Aviv University, who once belonged to the intelligence unit of the Israeli army and is familiar with information warfare, said that the conflict between the United States and Russia over Ukraine will be a "hybrid war" that goes beyond the traditional regular army battle. Pointed out that it has been.

He added that America's strategy was unusual, saying, "They put the information they got from intelligence on the table and loudly and clearly,'We know Putin will start the war on Wednesday.'" That's putting pressure on President Putin by speaking to the whole world. It's a psychological warfare, and it's a distinctly different strategy. "

"President Putin also understands that the fight is psychological. It must be frustrating for the United States to open up Russia's aim and put pressure on it all over the world." I showed the view.

Professor Rabbi said that this conflict could affect the world as well. "As for war, now in the 21st century, Western democracies do not have the vitality and energy that they had in the 20th century. Putin tried it. "

On that basis, he said, "This is not just a problem for Russia and Ukraine, but the same thing may happen in other regions." He pointed out that it will affect the future world order.

What about the information war after the military invasion?

Now that Russia has embarked on a military invasion, the West has embarked on deterrence through "sanctions."

The day after the invasion, President Biden announced that he would impose large-scale sanctions on Russia's largest financial institutions.

Immediately before that, Germany also decided to suspend the procedure for operating the natural gas pipeline with Russia, which had been carefully considered.

On the other hand, the United States and Russia will continue to argue about what kind of information warfare the United States will develop in the future and bring it to the end of the situation.

Washington bureau reporter

Kohei Tsuji

Tottori bureau, correspondent in Jerusalem, Morioka bureau, political department,

Washington bureau from 2020

After working at the Asahikawa Bureau

of Jerusalem

Bureau and the International Affairs Department, we are currently

interviewing immigrants, refugees, indigenous peoples, etc. on the theme of oppression and discrimination.