The sanctions dilemma for the West

Vincent Hervouet 07:28, February 23, 2022

This Ukrainian crisis is disconcerting because we are trying to answer questions that do not arise, with solutions that do not exist.

Take the pretext of the crisis, its stake: the accession of Ukraine to NATO.

This is what the Ukrainian leaders are crying out for and Vladimir Putin is angrily refusing.

Volodymyr Zelensky said it bitterly: if Ukraine was in NATO, it would have kept Crimea and Dombass.

With ifs, Kiev would be bottled up and safe.

The harsh truth is that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO.

In 2008, a vice-president named Joe Biden dreamed of it.

France and Germany have cautiously drawn their vetoes.

Since 14/18, they know that an alliance can be fatal like a trap.

We will never bring into a military alliance which imposes automatic solidarity in the event of aggression on a country which is occupied by another.

The Europeans have again verified this by integrating Cyprus, while the Turkish army occupies a third of the island where it has founded a pseudo Turkish republic of northern Cyprus (which no one recognizes except Ankara) and which is well worth the pseudo republics Dombass (which only Moscow has recognized).

With Cyprus, Europe has imported a frozen conflict which it has made unbreakable, except by also integrating Turkey… NATO is a decoy.

Sanctions are the same, the same irrational logic.

while the Turkish army occupies a third of the island where it founded a pseudo Turkish republic of northern Cyprus (which no one recognizes except Ankara) and which is well worth the pseudo republics of Dombass (which only Moscow has recognized).

With Cyprus, Europe has imported a frozen conflict which it has made unbreakable, except by also integrating Turkey… NATO is a decoy.

Sanctions are the same, the same irrational logic.

while the Turkish army occupies a third of the island where it founded a pseudo Turkish republic of northern Cyprus (which no one recognizes except Ankara) and which is well worth the pseudo republics of Dombass (which only Moscow has recognized).

With Cyprus, Europe has imported a frozen conflict which it has made unbreakable, except by also integrating Turkey… NATO is a decoy.

Sanctions are the same, the same irrational logic.

Sanctions are the Europeans' favorite army, the only one they use...

Europe does not bombard, it punishes.

A gradual, modern and above all moral response.

When she doesn't know what to do against this unjust world, she denounces it.

She knows it and she feels better.

40 countries, from A like Afghanistan to Z like Zimbabwe and a host of malicious people lying on a permanently updated blacklist, there are a thousand different texts depending on the sanctions regimes, a whole dedicated administration, it's a drug and a collective hallucination.

Europe believes it is acting when it is useless.

One could even say that she punishes all the more easily because she knows that it will not change anything.

It's not a policy, it's a posture.

Sanctions have never intimidated a tyrant.

Often they reinforce it.

Burmese generals control contraband and prosper more.

Sanctions have not got the better of Cuba, on the contrary it has been the regime's best alibi for 60 years.

The other perverse effect is that lifting the sanctions without obtaining a change in policy would be to admit failure.

They are therefore renewed automatically.

With Russia, a panoply of very harsh sanctions is envisaged...

Considered but from afar… And which remain harmless.

Since the time they have been around, the Russians have found alternatives.

They put their assets in tax havens.

China is helping them circumvent sanctions.

For the recognition of the independence of the two popular republics of Dombass, the Anglo-Saxons have targeted half a dozen banks, Europe has banned the deputies of the Duma from visas, they will no longer be able to spend the weekend in their dachas of the Côte d'Azur.

Germany has added the mothballing of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. But do not tremble, Nord Stream 1 is operating at a continuous stream, the Russian gas tap remains open, it is fear and speculation that are driving up the price of energy… If the Russian army takes control of the whole Dombass, new sanctions will be imposed.

If it bombs the Ukrainian army even heavier ones.

But the Russians would have to raze Kiev to be prohibited from using the dollar or exporting their raw materials… Only then could Europe tremble while listening to Putin, but tremble with cold.

This Ukrainian crisis is disconcerting because we are trying to answer questions that do not arise, with solutions that do not exist.

Take the pretext of the crisis, its stake: the accession of Ukraine to NATO.

This is what the Ukrainian leaders are crying out for and Vladimir Putin is angrily refusing.

Volodymyr Zelansky said it bitterly: if Ukraine was in NATO, it would have kept Crimea and Dombass.

With ifs, Kiev would be bottled up and safe.

The harsh truth is that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO.

In 2008, a vice-president named Joe Biden dreamed of it.

France and Germany have cautiously drawn their vetoes.

Since 14/18, they know that an alliance can be fatal like a trap.

We will never bring into a military alliance which imposes automatic solidarity in the event of aggression on a country which is occupied by another.

The Europeans have again verified this by integrating Cyprus, while the Turkish army occupies a third of the island where it has founded a pseudo Turkish republic of northern Cyprus (which no one recognizes except Ankara) and which is well worth the pseudo republics Dombass (which only Moscow has recognized).

With Cyprus, Europe has imported a frozen conflict that it has made unbreakable, except to also integrate Turkey...

NATO is a decoy.

Sanctions are the same, the same irrational logic.