Why doesn't my annual income go up?

~ The opinions of the four experts ~ February 17, 21:00

Japan has become one of the developed countries where the annual income does not rise.

We asked economic experts about the causes, how they lived in old age, and tips for living in the future.

(Interview: Good morning Japan Hiroshi Oguni, Rintaro Gota)

Five questions from everyone

Raising wages is now a major theme in the "new capitalism" that Prime Minister Kishida advocates.

We are conducting a web survey on "annual income" and "cars" in a section called "Good morning Japan" interviews with 30 people.

So far, more than 10,000 people have given us various opinions, but the most common are the following five questions.

[Five Frequently Asked Questions]

1. Will I be able to receive a pension in the future?

2. How much should I save for old age?

3. Why are wages not rising?

4. What impact will lower wages have on Japan in the future ?

Will it affect?

5. Is it possible to raise wages?

Economic analyst Takuro Morinaga and economic commentator Yukio Noguchi asked their opinions on these five questions.

We also asked Akie Fukata, a financial planner, for pensions, and Tomohisa Ishikawa, Japan Research Institute, for wages, from a professional standpoint.

Before getting into the main subject, let's first take a look at various data related to the premise of annual income.

According to the "Private Salary Survey" published in 2020, the average salary in Japan is 4.33 million yen.

Looking at changes in average wages among OECD member countries, the United States is 1.47 in 2020, assuming 1990 as 1.

In Japan, the same 2020 is only 1.04, and it can be seen that wages have not increased much in 30 years.

On the other hand, Japan's unemployment rate is the third lowest in the OECD.

We can see the situation where wages do not rise while employment is protected.

What is your future pension?

Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare replied that "it can be paid"

It's finally the main subject.

First of all, about the first question, "Can I get a pension in the future?"

When I interviewed the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare about this, I answered that I could pay it.

He added, "In the case of economic growth and participation in the labor market, the pension amount may increase, but if they do not proceed smoothly, the pension amount may decrease." ..

Then, when I asked the opinions of each of the three experts, they answered that they could all receive them, but they disagreed on the amount of payment.

Question 1. Will I be able to get a pension in the future?

Mr. Takuro Morinaga

I think the amount received will be significantly reduced.

The public pension system in Japan is not a "funding method" in which the pensions received in the future are accumulated by oneself, but a "pay-as-you-go method" in which the premiums paid by the working generation are used as benefits.

Assuming that the number of beneficiaries will increase while the number of working generations will decrease in the future, I think that the amount of pension benefits will have to decrease.

Specifically, the total amount of pension received by a married couple in the current standard household of welfare pension (husband is a salaryman and wife is a full-time housewife) is in the 210,000 yen range per month.

Thirty years later, if you have a similar couple, my estimate is that you will receive 130,000 yen a month, a decrease of about 38%.

According to the financial verification of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the current monthly pension amount of 220,000 yen will increase to 263,000 yen in 2046 with a model pension of 220,000 yen (a case of a person who has not unpaid pension insurance premiums and has paid it perfectly). It has become.

However, I think this is a calculation under strong unrealistic assumptions.

The first thing I think is strong is the assumption that real wages will rise 1.6% each year.

Looking at the changes in wages so far, that is unlikely.

The second is the assumption that 70% of men work up to 70 years old, half work up to 75 years old, half work up to 70 years old, and one third work up to 75 years old.

In reality it would be impossible.

This is because the healthy life expectancy of men is 72 years.

Third, we assume that the real investment yield of the pension reserve is 3% (nominal 5%).

It is difficult to maintain such a high yield for a long period of time, and my estimation is that, under the usual assumptions, the amount of pension received will inevitably decrease by about 40%.

Yukio Noguchi

Regarding the pension amount at the start of receiving the pension (65 years old), the government has promised by law that the ratio (= income substitution rate) to the take-home income of the working generation should be 50% or more, and insurance from now on. It is said that the pension can be maintained for the next 100 years without raising the fee.

However, there are some problems here.

First, in the case of basic pension alone, the pension amount is low and the income substitution rate is likely to decrease.

Second, the government's fiscal outlook is based on a significantly optimistic economic outlook, which is not really the case and is at risk of bankruptcy.

In such a case, the pension amount may be devaluated by strengthening the macro economic slide.

In addition, it is not unthinkable that it will be necessary to raise the insurance premium rate or raise the payment start age to 70 years old.

Akie Fukata

Many people think that the pension system will go bankrupt, but the government has revised the system so that it will not go bankrupt, so you can get a pension.

If you compare the pension system to "donburi", the working generation pays pension insurance premiums and the money is accumulated in "donburi".

Older people who retire will receive a pension from the "Pension Donburi".

There is always money here, and that money is managed by the country, so it never goes to "zero."

However, in the future, the number of people who will pay premiums for pension bowls will decrease, and the number of people who will receive pensions will increase.

This is the declining birthrate and aging population.

Therefore, in order to prevent the pension bowl from running out, revisions such as increasing insurance premiums, reducing pensions, and delaying the time to receive pensions will be made little by little.

Keep in mind that the person who receives the pension is the person who paid the premium.

You should be careful.

Question 2. How much should I save for old age?

In addition, the answer to the next question 2, "How much should I save for old age?"

Yukio Noguchi

The 2019 Financial Council report required savings of 20 million yen at the age of 65 as a living fund for old age.

However, the actual amount required will vary greatly depending on the individual circumstances of the household.

First, this assumption is for the welfare pension, and if it is only the basic pension, the pension amount will be smaller.

In addition, the required living expenses vary depending on the household.

In addition, how much you can get a lump-sum retirement allowance varies greatly depending on whether you are regular or non-regular, and the length of service.

If you are a regular employee of a large company, you can often clear the above 20 million yen with a lump-sum retirement allowance.

However, if you are a non-regular employee of a micro enterprise, you will have a small pension, a small lump-sum retirement allowance, or even zero, so you will be in need of living expenses for old age.

There is concern that the number of aging households in need of livelihood protection will increase rapidly in the future.

In addition, if the payment start age is raised to 70 years old, a larger amount of funds will be required.

Akie Fukata

Japanese pensions are not designed to guarantee 100% of your income during your active career, so you need to save the shortfall as retirement funds.

For example, assuming that the amount of pension income that is insufficient is 600,000 yen per year, the standard for retirement funds for 25 years from the age of 65 to 90 is 15 million yen.

In addition to this, I would like to secure about 5 to 10 million yen for housing repair costs, car replacement costs, and preparations for illness and disasters.

A guideline is about 20 to 25 million yen in total.

You may think that it is impossible, but there are funded systems such as the company's retirement allowance system and iDeCo and NISA that give preferential tax treatment, so it is important to work hard while utilizing these systems.

Be aware that the longer you work, the less money you have to pay for retirement and the better you will be.

According to a report released by the Financial Services Agency in June 2019,

Takuro Morinaga's unemployed elderly two-person household earns 210,000 yen and spends 260,000 yen, resulting in a monthly deficit of 50,000 yen.

I am.

If this deficit accumulates for 30 years from the age of 65 to 95, in many cases the deficit will be close to 20 million yen, so it is necessary to have assets equivalent to that.

Based on my estimation, assuming that the monthly income of the pension will drop from the current 210,000 yen to 130,000 yen, if you continue to spend the same amount as you are now, the monthly deficit will be 130,000 yen.

If this is accumulated for 30 years, the deficit will be 46.8 million yen.

In addition, females have a 1.2% chance of living up to 105 years of age, so it is necessary to anticipate 40 years of old age to ensure 99% peace of mind.

In that case, the cumulative deficit for 40 years will be 62.4 million yen.

Given the difficulty of collecting such retirement funds, I think the only solution is to halve the cost of living or continue working until death.

Question 3. Why are wages not rising?

Next, I have a question about "wage", which many people wanted to know.

Tomohisa Ishikawa

The biggest factor is the low economic growth.

If you don't grow, neither employment nor wages will increase.

After the burst of the bubble economy, the employment ice age and restructuring increased the sense of crisis about losing employment, and people and companies began to think that wages did not have to rise in order to protect employment. think.

There is also the aspect that companies are more defensive than aggressive management.

As deflation continued, the fact that we could live even if wages did not rise created a situation where we did not seek a wage increase.

The weakening of labor unions and the increase in non-regular employment have also created an environment in which wages are unlikely to rise.

On the other hand, it is also true that Japan's unemployment rate was low worldwide, despite low growth, because wages were low.

Mr. Takuro Morinaga

I think it is clear from the real wages that the main reason why wages do not rise is the increase in the consumption tax rate.

As a result of raising the tax rate from 3% to 5% in 1997 and then raising it twice, it is all reflected in real wages.

Japan in the last quarter century has continued a vicious cycle in which the consumption tax rate is raised and real income is reduced, so the sales of companies are also reduced or not increased, and in the end it is not possible to raise wages.

Yukio Noguchi

The reason why wages have stopped rising is probably because of price competition with China in the manufacturing industry.

Especially in the steel industry, it became a real problem in the late 1990s.

Pushed by cheap steel products produced in China, the steel industry, which was Japan's core industry, fell into a crisis.

Countries around the world have tried to differentiate themselves from Chinese products by developing technologies and business models.

Meanwhile, Japan has taken steps to compete with Chinese products in terms of price.

To do this, it is necessary to curb export prices in dollars, and I believe that in order to achieve this, domestic wages were curtailed and the exchange rate was depreciated.

As for wages, the data clearly show the results of this measure.

In other words, wages in Japan have continued to rise until then, but have hardly risen since the mid-1990s, when price competition with China began.

In Japan, the depreciation of the yen has progressed, and not only exports have increased, but also imports have increased, so the trade surplus has shrunk since 2000.

Today, the trade balance surplus and deficit are mixed.

In other words, foreign economic transactions are no longer contributing to Japan's growth.

The United States has realized the IT revolution and succeeded in developing a business model of completely new technology and horizontal division of labor with Asia.

This is a method in which the assembly work of the product is not performed at the factory in the United States, but at the factory in China using low-wage labor.

Now Apple produced the iPhone, and Taiwan's Hon Hai played a major role in this process.

In addition, Taiwan has made contract production of semiconductors and improved its technology.

Today, TSMC is capable of producing high-performance semiconductors that surpass any country in the world.

Japan is also subsidizing to attract TSMC factories to Japan.

In other words, both Taiwan and the United States have succeeded in developing new technologies and new business models, and have been able to respond to the industrialization of China.

South Korea has also achieved differentiation from China through technological innovation and sophisticated industrial structure.

We increased exports to China, mainly electronic products, and significantly expanded our share of China's imports.

Originally, Japan also needed to differentiate its products from China through technological innovation and sophistication of the industrial structure, but because it could not do so, it had to take a "bargain sale strategy" and the yen depreciated. Relying on, neglected efforts to transform the industrial structure.

I think the reason wages did not rise is because they preserved these traditional industrial and social structures.

Question 4. What kind of impact will lower wages have on Japan in the future?

Takuro Morinaga

In 2000, Japan's wages, which were top in the G7 = seven major countries, fell to the bottom in the G7.

The Japanese manufacturing industry, which has continued to relocate overseas, is expected to continue its domestic return.

In that sense, I think it will have a positive impact on employment in the medium to long term.

In addition, if the new corona converges, many tourists from all over the world will visit for "cheap Japan" and inbound demand will increase.

On the other hand, it is expected that the decline in wages will make it impossible for Japanese people to easily travel abroad and buy overseas products at low prices.

In addition, it loses its presence in the global economy.

Japan's GDP share of the world, which was 18% in 1995, is now less than 6%.

From now on, I think "Japan passing" will become the norm.

Yukio Noguchi

At present, Japan's GDP per capita has fallen to almost the same level as the OECD average.

If this situation continues, Japan's GDP per capita will fall below the OECD average and it will lose its position as a developed country.

There is an idea that "even if wages are cheap, prices are cheap, isn't it?", But that is a mistake.

Because it will be difficult for Japanese people to work or study abroad.

The inability of Japanese people to work abroad will be a major obstacle to the development of Japan.

There is a further problem.

Japan's aging population will continue, and the labor shortage will become even more serious.

In particular, long-term care personnel cannot be invited from overseas if wages in Japan are low.

石川智久さん
低賃金が続けば、所得は減り、不景気も長く続きます。

現在、世界では、インフレの足音が聞こえていて、いわゆる不景気の中で、物価が上がるというスタグフレーションが日本で起きる可能性もあります。

世界的に賃金が上がることで、日本の現場を支えていた外国人労働者が日本に集まらなくなり、人手不足が深刻化する可能性もあります。

質問5. 賃上げは可能なのか？

そして、最後の質問が5の「賃上げは可能なのか」です。

野口悠紀雄さん
アメリカも、1970年代から80年代にかけて、日本からの輸出に押されて経済力が低下しました。

しかし、1990年代からIT革命を実現し、力強い成長を取り戻しました。

これを見ても、衰退した国が再び復活するのは、ありうることが分かります。

日本においても、現在の事態を逆転させることは、不可能ではありません。

しかし、そのためには、前述の「安売り戦略」から脱却する必要があります。

つまり、円安政策をやめ、技術開発と産業構造の高度化に取り組む必要があります。

これは決して容易な課題ではありません。

これまでの産業構造を続けようとすれば、過去の傾向が続くだけです。

企業間の労働の移動を進め、人々がより成長力の高い産業に移動していくことが、どうしても必要です。

しかし、産業構造が転換するということは、いつまでも同じ企業で働き続けることができなくなるかもしれないことを意味します。

これには、さまざまな摩擦が伴うでしょう。

しかし、これなくして日本に将来はありません。

従来の産業構造と古い技術をそのままにして賃金を上昇させ、かつ国際社会の中で生き残ることは、原理的に不可能なのです。

石川智久さん
賃金を上げるには、政府と企業、労働者の3者が、共通の認識をもつ必要があります。

さらに、成長率を高めることが重要です。

そのためには、成長産業を生み出すことが不可欠です。

また、よいサービスだけでなく、よいサービスをしたらきちんと対価をとったり、安易に値下げしたりしない企業努力も求められます。

新産業の創出や人材育成に資金を投じ、それが企業の利益拡大と賃金上昇に回る仕組みを作るべきです。

同時に人々も賃上げを求めていくべきです。

特に少子化で働く人が減るなか、賃金を上げて労働者のやる気を刺激していく必要があります。

企業側もこれまでのような低賃金では優秀な人材が確保できない時代に入ったと考えるべきです。

成長→雇用・賃金の上昇→成長という好循環を生み出していくべきです。

森永卓郎さん
賃金は労使交渉で決まるもので、私は政府の介入で思うように動かせるものではないと思います。

岸田政権は、賃上げをした企業への法人税減税の強化を打ち出していますが、中小企業にとって、申請手続きは複雑ですし、そもそも多くの中小企業が赤字で法人税減税は意味がないからです。

いちばん確実な方法は、消費税率を下げることだと私は思います。

たしかに一時的に税収は落ちますが、経済の好循環が生み出せれば、税収は元に戻せると考えます。

ただ、そういった思い切った政策は今、政治的に困難な状況だと私はみています。

だからこそ、いま必要な選択は、年金の範囲内でまかなう暮らしへの大転換ではないでしょうか。

私は年金13万円の範囲で暮らすことは不可能ではないと思っています。

専門家からの提言

以上が、みなさんの疑問に対する専門家たちの意見でした。

インタビューの最後に、今、そしてこれからの時代を生きるヒントを森永さんと野口さんから伺いました。

森永卓郎さん
『トカイナカの生活を』
人々のなかでも、東京一極集中が続いてきたのが、コロナ禍で潮目が変わってきています。

年収がどんどん増えていく状況なら、大都市でキラキラした暮らしを求める若者が多くなるのも分かりますが、「どうもそうじゃないぞ」と多くの人たちが気付きはじめたんじゃないかなと、私は見ています。

私は、都会と田舎の中間、「トカイナカ」に住んで、食べ物は自分で作る。

水も自分で井戸を掘る。

電力も屋根の上にパネルをはって自分でまかなえば、13万円で十分暮らせると思います。

東京はエンタメやおしゃれなレストランがたくさんありますが、お金が使えないと楽しいもの、おいしいものを享受できない街なんです。

コロナ禍になって、私は東京の事務所にほとんど行かなくなり、東京から約50キロ離れた埼玉県所沢市の自宅で仕事をするようになったんです。

その中で、私は近所に畑を借りて農業を始めたんです。

30坪程度の小さな農地ですが、家族が食べる分くらいの野菜や果物は作れるということ、そして、東京と両方で暮らしていると物価の差が大きいということが分かりました。

いま、「食料品の値段が上がった」と言って、みんな困っていますよね。

あるいは、ポテトが食べられなくなるというようなことも起こっていますが、うちは世界的な物価高騰の影響をほとんど受けていないんです。

ジャガイモは畑にあり、秋に収穫したジャガイモはまだ山積みです。

生活も安定し、グローバル経済に極度に振り回されることもなくなる。

だから基本は「自産自消」、自分で作って自分で消費する。

まかなえない分は「地産地消」。

地元の食材を食べるとか、地元の大工さんに家の修理を依頼するとかということをやる。

それでも足りない分を、日本全国に頼って、それでもダメな分をグローバルに依存するという行動原則に切り替えていければ、生活が安定するんです。

農業もですが、仕事は自分の意志で自分のやりたいようにやるのが楽しいんです。

年収をたくさん稼いで、いいお店に行って、高い一流の料理を食べるっていうことがそんなに幸せなのかなって思うようになって、私は東京で暮らしていた時より、今のくらしの方が圧倒的に幸せなんです。

野口悠紀雄さん
『成長の実現は中小企業』
アメリカをリードしている企業というのは、今から20年前30年前に零細企業として出発したごく小さな企業なんです。

その企業がここまで来ているんです。

したがって小さな企業、中小企業こそ成長のポテンシャルを持っているということが重要な点ですね。

これはアメリカだけの話ではありません。

日本の戦後もそうだったんです。

日本の戦後に例えばホンダやトヨタという企業が現れた。

これは最初はとても小さな企業だったわけですよ。

そのような小さな企業が成長することによって、高度経済成長が実現できたんですよ。

ですからかつては日本でもそのようなことを実現できたんです。

成長を実現するのは中小企業であり零細企業です。

世界は大きく変わっているわけですから、一人ひとりの人々もそれに合わせて大きく変わっていかなければ世界の動きについていくことはできないんですよね。

学校で学んだことだけで一生仕事ができると思ったら大きな間違いですよね。

一人ひとりが毎日勉強をして、自分自身の能力をつけていく。

若い時代というのは私は特権を持っていると思う。

特権というのは、吸収力があるということ。

先ほど勉強をすることが必要だということを言ったが、勉強したことを吸収する能力、受け入れる能力、理解する能力。

それが、若い人ほど高いということが言えると思います。

そういう特権をぜひ利用していただきたい。

そして与えられた時間を自分の能力を高めるためにぜひ有効に使って頂きたいと思う。

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Rintaro Gota

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I have been interested in medical care and poverty and interviewed

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