Zhongxin Finance, January 19 (Shi Rui) Intensive monetary policy will be introduced in the fourth quarter of 2021. On the 18th, the central bank stated that it would "open the monetary policy toolbox a little more", and proposed that "the plan of the year lies in the spring, Therefore, we must hurry up to do things and operate forward-looking." The market has paid great attention to the above-mentioned new formulation.
How to understand that the monetary policy "toolbox" should be opened wider?
What will be the characteristics of monetary policy this year?
How will we face expectations of Fed rate hikes?
Zhongxin Finance interviewed Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities on the above-mentioned issues.
On January 18, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that until the downward pressure on the economy is fundamentally relieved, the focus of the policy is to "stabilize", and the central bank will make efforts from three aspects. , the first point is to "open the monetary policy toolbox a little bigger".
As soon as this remark came out, it immediately became a topic of discussion in the financial circle since the evening of the 18th.
In the data map, photo by Jiang Qiming, a reporter from the News Agency
"The new statement means that more monetary policy tools will be used in the future," Li Xunlei told China-Singapore Finance. In the fourth quarter of 2021, GDP will grow by 4% year-on-year, which is at a low level. A more proactive monetary policy can support the central government's economy this year. The goal of steady work growth and steady progress.
"Specifically, the central bank may use RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, reverse repurchase, medium-term lending facility (MLF), standing lending facility (SLF) and other tools to achieve the goal of sufficient monetary policy."
However, the current average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%.
Liu Guoqiang said that the room for further adjustment in the next step has become smaller, and the space has become smaller, but there is still a certain space, which we can use according to the economic and financial operation and the needs of macro-control.
Li Xunlei judged that among various monetary policy tools, lowering the loan market quoted rate (LPR) may be used more frequently.
Zhongxin Finance found that since the fourth quarter of 2021, the introduction of monetary policy has been relatively intensive.
In November 2021, the central bank launched carbon emission reduction support tools and 200 billion yuan of special re-lending to support the clean and efficient use of coal; in December 2021, the overall RRR cut by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds; January 2022 , carry out 700 billion yuan MLF operation and 100 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation, and the winning interest rate of MLF operation and open market reverse repurchase operation will decrease by 10 basis points.
In this regard, Li Xunlei believes that after the MLF is lowered, the next step is the loan market quotation rate (LPR). my country's practice is usually "small steps and quick drops" - small steps and multiple drops.
On the 19th, the People's Bank of China announced that in order to strengthen expectation management and promote a better connection between the release time of LPR and the operation time of the financial market, the release time of LPR will be adjusted from 9:30 am on the 20th of each month (extended during holidays) to 9:15 am. .
The above adjustments will be implemented from January 20, 2022.
Data map.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Yang Bo
In addition to supporting domestic economic growth, the central bank is also focusing on policy adjustments in advanced economies.
In this regard, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said that my country's financial support for the real economy has been solid, the financial system's autonomy and stability have been enhanced, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to be stable, all of which will help mitigate and respond to external risks. Developed economies Policy adjustment has limited impact on my country.
At present, the market has strong expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates and shrink its balance sheet. Li Xunlei predicts that if the Fed is fast, it will raise interest rates in the second quarter, and if it is slow, it will raise interest rates in the second half of the year. Therefore, we can consider cutting interest rates more in the first half of the year and try our best to reduce interest rates. Completing it in the second half of the year, cutting interest rates first will allow us to be more proactive in responding to the Fed's policy adjustments, and make my country's export conditions more favorable through relevant measures.
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