[Explanation] A new wave of new crown epidemics in Hong Kong is coming.
A few days ago, the Hong Kong SAR government held an emergency meeting and used "fast, accurate and ruthless" measures to "compete" with the Omikron virus.
During this critical period, Professor Shi Wenzhong of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University led a research team to use data models to predict the spread of Omicron virus in Hong Kong, hoping to help the SAR government to prevent and control the epidemic.
[Concurrent] Shi Wenzhong, Chair Professor of Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Let us now introduce our team's use of our data model to predict the spatiotemporal prediction of the outbreak in Hong Kong from January 11 to 17. Then on the 11th, that is, yesterday, it includes Tuen Mun, Kowloon Tong, Tai Po, North Point, Causeway Bay, A place like Happy Valley is a high-risk area.
Kowloon Bay was added to No. 14, Kwun Tong was added to No. 15, and Yuen Long was added to No. 16.
Then the area of Yuen Long on the 17th will be further expanded. This is based on our research. In the next 7 days, the epidemic of it (Omicron strain) will develop in Hong Kong.
[Explanation] Shi Wenzhong told a reporter from China News Agency that patients are usually diagnosed 4 to 5 days after the onset of the disease, and these days are enough to infect others. Therefore, the team developed an extended weighted nuclear density model to predict the virus earlier. The spread in the next seven days can buy more time for the SAR government and Hong Kong citizens.
[Concurrent] Shi Wenzhong, Chair Professor of Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Our research is to divide Hong Kong into 291 communities, and we provide that each community has its risks divided into high, medium and low risks, then this data can support the (SAR) government when making decisions, and we also provide such data to ( The Special Administrative Region) government, then I hope that the (Special Region) government, for example, in the allocation of public resources, such as the spatial distribution of vaccination centers, can first consider those places with relatively high epidemics (risks).
[Explanation] It is reported that the team's research and development model predicts local Hong Kong based on factors such as the residence and place of visit of the Omicron case in the past 14 days, the complete vaccination rate, social distancing index, the immediate effective reproduction rate of the virus, and the daily population flow. Omicron strain transmission risk.
Shi Wenzhong pointed out that the biggest challenge at present is to find out the invisible transmission chain in the community.
[Concurrent] Shi Wenzhong, Chair Professor of Hong Kong Polytechnic University
I think large-scale (nucleic acid) testing is more important to discover the spread of the invisible transmission chain and its approximate location, so it is a feasible way to find it through large-scale (nucleic acid) testing.
Reporter Liang Yuan Hong Kong reports
Responsible editor: [Wang Yu]