Three weeks before the bomb

While the Old and New Worlds are celebrating Christmas, and you and I are preparing for the New Year, the Iranian delegation flew to Vienna to resume negotiations on a return to the nuclear deal today, December 29, in the last hours of the outgoing 2021.

We know that this time more than 40 people will arrive as part of the delegation from Iran - Ayatollah Khamenei acted as a kind Santa and allowed fifty people to take their souls in Christmas Europe at a budget expense.

Mulled wine, sacher, marvelous apple strudels, Christmas sales - you know.

And, for example, the chief negotiator and conductor of this entire international process - President Biden's special envoy for Iran Rob Malley - never took his suits and shirts out of the Vienna Imperial Hotel.

He knows that the Iranian "no" actually means "yes."

I mean, why not talk?

Right on the eve of the resumption of negotiations in one of the most influential and authoritative pillars of the American democratic press - in The New Yorker - on December 29, 2021, an article "The Looming Threat of a Nuclear Crisis with Iran" was published.

And that's what I would like to talk about.

This huge landmark article claims to be a political sensation: for the first time, President Biden's administration openly admits the fact that Iran's "breakthrough" time, that is, the operating time required to produce fuel for an atomic bomb, has been reduced from one year to three weeks.

"It (time. -

.

)

Is 

really short - and unacceptably short," the publication quotes the publication of an anonymous "high-ranking official of the Biden administration."

This article was written by Robin Wright, a New Yorker classic who has been writing for him since 1988, winner of the UN Correspondent Association gold medal and winner of the US National Press Club.

• Legion-Media

• © Richard Levine

For you to understand the degree of awareness and admission to the level of information Wright, suffice it to say that just to write this material she interviewed "the chief of Iran in the White House" Robert Mally;

Enrique Moru, Chief of Staff of J. Borrell, High Representative for EU Foreign Policy and many others.

She also accompanied the head of the Central Command (CENTCOM) of the United States Armed Forces, General Mackenzie, on numerous trips to the Middle East.

I have read this article for you and will share the most important, claiming the status of important political revelations straight from the White House, the State Department and CENTCOM.

In order to understand where the Vienna nuclear talks are heading and what we need to do with it.

1. So the first thing.

The administration of President Biden considers Iran to be the most serious state in terms of military power and preparedness for war in the region.

In fact, the entire article is one big compliment to the Islamic republic: "The Biden administration is facing a potential confrontation with a longtime rival who is more armed and tough than ever in modern history."

“The problem with Iran’s nuclear program is that at the moment there is no diplomatic mechanism to stop them.

Iran is not afraid of anything anymore, ”Wright quotes Zohar Palti, the former intelligence director of the MOSSAD, who now works in the Israeli Defense Ministry.

That's it.

An omnipotent Iran that no one can stop, not even the United States (yet).

An easy déjà vu with Taliban * August in Afghanistan.

And the way the article describes Iran's missile response to the "assassination of Soleimani" - the strike on the American base of Ain al-Assad in Iraq in January 2020, can be envied even by the Iranian state publication: "Five days later, Iran fired 11 ballistic missiles, each with a warhead weighing at least a thousand pounds. The shelling lasted for several hours; it was the largest ballistic missile attack ever carried out by any country against American forces. Not a single American died, but 110 suffered head injuries. Two years later, many of those then in al-Assad experience profound loss of memory, sight and hearing. One of them committed suicide in October. Al-Assad's lesson, Mackenzie told me, is that Iran's missiles have become a more immediate threat than its nuclear program.For decades, Iranian missiles have been imprecise. In al-Assad, they got where they wanted to go. "

Or: "They can now effectively strike throughout the Middle East - they can deliver precise and voluminous strikes."

“Iran’s strategic potential is enormous right now,” says Mackenzie.

"In the theater of war, they have superiority - the ability to suppress."

There is no doubt that the article contains a message to Israel, which the Biden administration sends greetings to through a respected publication: "Iran can launch more missiles than its opponents, including the United States and Israel, can destroy."

Cool down, hotheads.

2. In recent years, I have not yet seen such a talented advertisement for the Iranian missile program, which was kindly done by The New Yorker:

"According to the Office of Military Intelligence, Iran's arsenal is the largest and most diverse in the Middle East."

Or: "Today Iran is one of the leading manufacturers of missiles in the world."

“Tehran has achieved what Mackenzie calls a 'superior' level of capability - the level at which a country has weapons that make it extremely difficult to contain or defeat.

3. The US administration is well aware.

And one of the most authoritative publications of a democratic persuasion describes in detail the underground missile cities of Iran without negative connotations.

Even with some admiration.

"Today Iran has the largest underground complexes in the Middle East ... Most of the tunnels are located in the west, opposite Israel, or on the southern coast, opposite Saudi Arabia."

In general, the description by the American democrats of the underground missile cities of the Islamic republic reminds me of Ernst Theodor Hoffmann's description of the fairytale city invented by him in the fairy tale "The Nutcracker".

Therefore, combining business with pleasure, I recommend for further reading of this column to put for listening to the musical work of the same name by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky and under the Waltz of Flowers, for example, to look at the fabulous Iranian railway with rockets floating like swans.

Well, and the latest news from Iranian builders: “This fall, satellites recorded a new underground construction near Bakhtaran.

This will be the most extensive complex, with tunnels carved into the rock going over 16 feet underground.

They stretch for miles.

Iran calls them missile cities.

The Underground Railroad ferries Emad rockets for fast, sequential launches.

The Emad has a range of 1,000 miles and can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. "

• The commander of the IRGC Aerospace Forces Amir Ali Hajizadeh talks about the Dezful ground-to-ground ballistic missile to Mohammad Ali Jafari, who was then the commander of the IRGC.

  According to Fars, the presentation took place at an underground rocket factory, described as an "underground city."

  February 7, 2019

• AP

• © Sepahnews

Doves of peace, otherwise you will not say:

“Iran’s missile program is much more advanced than Pakistan’s,” Uzi Rubin, the first head of Israel's Anti-Ballistic Missile Organization, told me.

Experts compare Iran to North Korea, which contributed to the development of Iran's nuclear program in the 1980s.

But Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey said some of Iran's missiles are better than Pyongyang's, and experts believe North Korea can now import Iranian technology. ”

The Iranian missile program deserves a separate column, because it can become the very trigger for future events in the region, in which we also find ourselves.

4.

To replace Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani as protagonists - and thus villains - the Americans have already begun to train Amir Ali Hajizadeh, brigadier general of the IRGC and head of Iran's Aerospace Forces.

Commander of all Iranian missiles, drones, air defense systems, and so on.

• January 9, 2020.

  The commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, attends the farewell ceremony for General Qasem Suleimani the day after the Ukrainian plane crash in Tehran.

  Plane crash kills 176 people

• AP

• © Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader

Which, on the one hand, surprised me at first, because the head of the IRGC himself, Hossein Salami, seems to be the main head of the IRGC in Iran, who was chosen by Khamenei for this position in 2019 precisely because of his peremptory "missile expansion" program.

On the other hand, the choice of Amir Hajizade as the "main evil" for the global promotion is understandable: he is younger than Salami, more charismatic, brighter.

And it is possible that he will have to play a significant role in a (possible) future war in the region.

In January 2020, when the Boeing of the Ukrainian airline was shot down and the most serious political crisis in Iran and an international scandal were brewing, it was he who took responsibility for the mistake.

Speaking to television cameras with a "confession" speech and apologies for the mistake, he stood against the background not of his Iranian flag, but against the background of many flags of Iranian proxies - Lebanese Hezbollah, Afghan Fatimiyun, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and so on.

Hajizadeh, a former sniper and now a brigadier general who heads the Iranian Aerospace Forces, is known for his incendiary bravado in 2019: “Everyone should know that all American bases and their ships at a distance of up to 2 thousand km are within range of our missiles.

We were constantly preparing for a full-fledged war. "

“The Israelis call Hajizade the new Suleimani.

Mackenzie called him reckless.

In 2019, the VKS Hajizadeh shot down an American reconnaissance drone over the Persian Gulf. "

(And Trump, gorgeous in his cinematic fury, did them absolutely nothing.)

But Wright continues: “Hajizadeh also orchestrated missile strikes against al-Assad.

A few hours after this attack, his forces shot down a Ukrainian passenger Boeing 737 with 176 people on board, which was taking off from Tehran International Airport. "

In the place of Amir Hajizade, I would be very careful: when you are so praised by the "enemies", not forgetting to make you the extreme for everything, this, as they say, is a sure sign.

• Tehran, September 21, 2019.

  The commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, speaks at the Tehran Museum of the Islamic Revolution and Sacred Defense at the opening ceremony of an exhibition of unmanned aerial vehicles from the United States and other countries, captured, according to Iran, on its territory

• Legion-Media

• © ZUMA Press

5.

But I have not forgotten about my favorite hero Kasem Suleimani The New Yorker, who once made him a world celebrity in an essay (let's be exact: Dexter Filkins' essay Shadow Commander was published in September 2013).

“Under Suleimani, Iran expanded its axis of resistance with the main six militant groups: including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas, and Islamic Jihad in the Palestinian territories ...“ This is the most cohesive system of alliances in the region, ” Said Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The US military is still far stronger than anything that is being built in Iran.

But Iran appeared to be an increasingly shrewd rival. "

"The most cohesive system of alliances in the region" is a gentlemanly warning from Washington that in the event of a potential war, all Iranian proxies will go to war, lighting up the region with colored lights like that garland on our New Year tree.

Further: "Seven American presidents failed to contain the political and military levers of Iran."

The "chronology" of American presidents from the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran is an interesting idea.

The first "Iranian" American president, Jimmy Carter, was brought to power by the mullahs, and the last, his student Joseph Biden, is planning to take him away?

Or will the next president, someone more daring, decisive and courageous, be "solving the problem"?

"If diplomacy reaches an impasse and Iran continues its nuclear program, a senior administration official warned, the US could face a nuclear crisis in the first quarter of 2022."

General Mackenzie, Chief of US Central Command:

“If they attack unexpectedly, it will be a very bloody war.

We will be greatly affected.

Ultimately we will certainly win.

But it will take a year.

Or perhaps even more.

And a full-scale military campaign by Israel or the United States will almost certainly trigger regional war on all fronts.

Iran is better armed and its military and political leaders are more brutal than ever before in history.

A nuclear deal could be the start - and the easiest part of the problem - for the eighth American president. "

What is this - intimidation of the Iranian leadership on the eve of the deal, so that they become more compliant?

Or Israel's sobering up?

Why is this article so similar to the beginning of preparing public opinion for a future war?

Yes, yes, reverence for Iranian military power ("oh, I'm afraid, I'm afraid"), as well as praise for the wisdom and determination of the Iranian leadership (read: Khamenei) can be read as an elegant - in the Eastern, not Western style - an invitation to the militant Iranian mullahs to war.

Since their hands are so itchy to fight, build peaceful underground missile cities.

In fact, this explains why Iran has been allowed to build up its nuclear and missile programs all these years.

Explains the pumping up of the region with weapons (of the most recent - the coolest American weapons abandoned by the Americans in a hurry and left to the Taliban, the military parade of Iranian proxies in Iraq this summer, arms deals in the region, the Resistance Front in northern Afghanistan on the border with Tajikistan, and much more).

I don’t know what conclusions you will draw from this programmatic article of the American Democrats - I have drawn mine.

But in any case, according to experts, there are at least three weeks before the Iranian nuclear bomb, and the "I quarter of 2022" is stretchable, so we still have time to raise champagne and live with confidence that in In the coming year, there will be no big fireworks featuring the winged, ballistic and nuclear achievements of mankind.

Let's get by with sparklers and the wonders of Chinese pyrotechnics.

Holiday greetings!

* 

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.