Regarding the spread of Omicron strain, a mutant virus of the new corona, Osaka Prefecture estimates that the proportion of Omicron strain will exceed 90% of newly infected persons in mid-January next year. Summarized.
This estimate was presented by a group of Professor Nishiura of Kyoto University and Professor Kojin Ito of Hokkaido University at an expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on the 28th.
The group referred to the Danish data, which is relatively close to Japan in terms of vaccination rate and other conditions, and the "effective reproduction number", which indicates how many people spread the infection, is 2.81 times that of the Delta strain in the Omicron strain. I presumed that it was.
Then, when the proportion of Omicron strains was calculated from the data of infected people in Osaka Prefecture from December 17th to 27th, it is estimated that Omicron strains account for about 30% of infected people in Osaka Prefecture at present. By January 11, next year, the proportion of Omicron strains was predicted to exceed 90% of newly infected people.
According to the group, in Osaka Prefecture, as the replacement with Omicron strains progresses, the spread of infection is expected to increase sharply compared to the time of the Delta strain epidemic.