During the year, the real estate market was "hot first and then cold", and short-term property market regulation and control policies are expected to improve.
Our reporter Du Yumeng
Looking back at the upcoming 2021, the real estate sales market and land market showed a clear trend of high and low.
However, with the continuous release of positive signals from the policy side at the end of the year and the adoption of various methods by real estate companies to help themselves, many industry insiders believe that the industry expectations have been repaired for the first time.
Compared with the differentiation of the sales side of the property market, the housing leasing market has undoubtedly obtained the precise escort of the policy.
Zhao Ran, dean of the ICCRA Institute of Housing Leasing Industry, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" that at present, the commercial closed loop of the housing leasing industry based on "asset management" has taken shape, and the housing leasing industry has ushered in a new development situation.
New house, second-hand house, land transaction
Whole chain cooling
The real estate market in 2021 can be roughly summed up as "hot first and then cold".
The "Real Estate Market Outlook Report 2022" released by the Shell Research Institute shows that the cooling of the real estate market in 2021 will first appear in the second-hand housing market.
From March to September, the second-hand housing market fell from a peak to a trough within six months, and the transaction volume shrank by more than 60%.
In terms of the new house market, the sales area of newly built commercial residential buildings across the country continued to grow in the first half of the year. In June, it hit the highest level since 2016 in a single month, but by November, the sales area of new houses had fallen to the lowest level since 2016.
In addition, in the land market, real estate companies "grabbed land" in the first half of the year, and many land parcels in hot cities in the second half of the year were unsold.
Chen Wenjing, deputy research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that in the first half of this year, driven by factors such as increased launches by companies and relatively abundant credit funds, the market as a whole continued the end of 2020. The active situation and the high enthusiasm of the superimposed land market further drove home buyers’ home ownership sentiment, making the national property market perform better than expected in the first half of the year.
In this context, in order to further achieve the goal of "three stability", many places have increased their property market control policies, such as issuing reference prices for second-hand housing transactions, strengthening market supervision, and raising the threshold for talent purchases. Some cities continue to upgrade restrictions on purchases, loans, and loans. Restricted sales and other policies, and regulated cities to further expand to third- and fourth-tier cities.
而随着热点城市楼市调控加码，政策效果已经显现。下半年以来，全国新房、二手房和土地市场快速降温，在此背景下，对于部分城市而言，有效应对楼市下行压力被摆在了更加突出的位置。7月份以来，已有超20个城市发布“限跌令”以稳定楼市。此外，据中原地产研究中心不完全统计，近一个月以来，已有桂林、晋江、芜湖、荆门、衡阳等20余个城市出台购房补贴政策。
“不难发现，近期出台鼓励购房政策的城市，主要是三四线城市，这些城市的特点之一是库存较大。”中原地产首席分析师张大伟对记者表示，从过往经验来看，在楼市表现较为低迷时，三四线城市确实会通过购房补贴等方式配合房企的打折促销活动，以进一步激活当地房地产市场交易。预计后续库存压力较大的城市，仍有望跟进类似措施以激活购房需求。
58安居客研究院分院长张波在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，无论是上半年限购政策的升级、二手房参考价的发布，以及严堵法拍房、假结婚等漏洞，还是下半年信贷政策的边际放松以及多地购房补贴政策相继出台，整体上看，尽管不同城市的楼市调控动态“细腻度”存在差异，政策力度略有不同，但究其根本，都是致力于保障各地房地产市场平稳发展，尤其是保持土地价格和房价稳定。
陈文静认为，当前，房地产市场仍处在调整通道，市场预期尚未稳定，短期楼市调控政策改善预期仍较强，各地将继续积极落实因城施策。
事实上，由于房地产行业规模大、链条长、涉及面广，其对经济金融稳定和风险防范具有重要的系统性影响。
谈及如何促进2022年房地产行业的良性循环和健康发展，住建部部长王蒙徽近日公开表示，一是保持调控政策连续性稳定性；二是增强调控政策协调性精准性；三是坚决有力处置个别头部房地产企业房地产项目逾期交付风险；四是持续整顿规范房地产市场秩序。
住房租赁行业完整商业闭环
初步实现
经过前期的无序发展和疫情冲击，2021年全国住房租赁市场迎来了崭新局面，多项政策出台，一方面鼓励市场通过多种渠道增加有效供给，特别是增加保障性租赁住房的供应；另一方面，进一步加强监管，约束行业行为。
Zhao Ran said that overall, the policies related to the housing leasing market introduced this year will, on the one hand, help reduce the cost burden of housing leasing companies, including development costs and operating costs. The key link of "exit" has made the commercial closed loop of the entire housing leasing industry formed, which greatly promotes the development of the housing leasing market.
On the other hand, the policy emphasizes "high attention to the construction of affordable rental housing", and has also set the tone of "protecting people's livelihood" for the housing rental market, effectively guaranteeing the needs of new citizens and young people, and avoiding disorderly development of the industry.
Specifically, in July, the General Office of the State Council officially issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Affordable Rental Housing."
In addition, the “Notice on Further Doing a Good Job in the Pilot Work of Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (REITs) in the Infrastructure Sector” issued by the National Development and Reform Commission included for the first time affordable rental housing (including those in municipalities and major cities with a net population inflow). Included in the list of pilot projects.
Superimposed on the "Announcement on Improving Tax Policies for Housing Leasing" jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, undoubtedly provide multiple guarantees for the issuance of REITs for affordable rental housing, aiming to solve the pain points of the industry's "three highs and one low" .
Since then, many places have successively issued implementation opinions on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing in line with urban characteristics, making affordable rental housing the focus of housing construction in the "14th Five-Year Plan", and accelerating the establishment of diversified and multi-subject supply.
And this year’s Central Economic Work Conference once again emphasized that we must adhere to both rental and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote a virtuous circle of the real estate industry due to urban policies. healthy growth.
"This is the first time that the Central Economic Work Conference has added a'virtuous circle' at the level of real estate policies in the past three years. After years of regulation, the structure of the'rental and purchase' in my country's real estate market has basically taken shape, and a multi-level housing system has begun to take shape. Renting, affordable housing and commercial housing are "three pillars"." Zhao Ran said that overall, the housing leasing market policies that have been introduced this year are based on the market practice experience in previous years and can be said to promote the development of the entire industry " An important support policy for “up the stage”.
Looking forward to 2022, the "Blue Book of China's Housing Rental Market 2021" released by the ICCRA Institute of Housing Leasing Industry predicts that the focus of rental housing is to develop affordable rental housing.
It is expected that in the future, in the context of city-specific policies, the identification standards for affordable rental housing in some cities, especially the control of product planning and rent levels, will be adapted to local conditions based on the characteristics of the city.
In addition to affordable rental housing, it is expected that there will also be a large number of market-oriented long-term rental housing to meet the needs of people of different living standards, creating a variety of choices for the broad masses of "housing" and "better housing".
Therefore, how to mobilize market enthusiasm and ensure a diversified market supply is the key to the subsequent construction of a multi-level supply system.
From the perspective of the formation of the long-term mechanism of the housing leasing market, this year is the first year to explore a new model of centralized land supply. The first two centralized land supply has greatly improved the land use of "rental" through "competitive self-sufficiency and competitive construction". Volume.
However, this land supply method, especially the land price generated under the "competitive self-sufficiency" mode, has deposited huge development costs for the "operating meager" housing leasing industry.
It is expected that in 2022, various regions will actively explore the centralized land supply model, that is, under the premise of achieving the goal of increasing the supply of rental housing as planned, combining the characteristics of the industry's long self-sustainment time and low operating profit, the land supply model will be innovative.
(Securities Daily)