We must give it credit: news reports coming from the main gas hub on the European subcontinent, namely the Dutch TTF, more and more resemble operational front-line reports.
With the explosive rise in prices, the withdrawal of gas from underground storage facilities and, of course, the reduction in the pumping of Russian gas along the Polish corridor, through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline and through the Ukrainian pipeline.
So, in particular, "Gazprom" again did not book capacities for the transit of natural gas through Poland.
The Russian gas holding company refuses to book the pumping through the pipeline for the next day for the fourth day in a row.
And all this against the background of what is already openly called the "pre-New Year rally in prices."
And here you don't even need to invent anything, the numbers themselves are quite, as they say, eloquent.
About $ 2 thousand and more for 1 thousand cubic meters on European spots, I would not have believed it myself a week or two ago.
And countries whose energy sector is not protected by long contracts with a Russian supplier, such as Poland and Ukraine, by the way, are forced to focus on them right now.
See for yourself.
The price of gas in Europe during yesterday's trading on the London stock exchange ICE (this is what nonsense turns out to be: by a strange coincidence, it is the trading on this “non-European” exchange floor that has recently been determined that determines the “spot” prices for gas in Europe, which we are operating with you) again rose above the psychologically significant level of $ 2050 per 1,000 cubic meters.
Moreover, as they say, "at the moment" the price of January futures on the very TTF hub in the Netherlands, which we talked about a little above and which serves as a kind of "indicator" for European energy markets, reached € 176.99 per MWh ( which is approximately equivalent to $ 2068 per 1,000 cubic meters).
Then these figures, of course, were slightly adjusted by the market, this is absolutely normal (if anyone is interested, up to € 174.2 per MWh - no less insane, by the way).
But that's not even the point.
Frankly speaking, neither you and me, nor even the Russian Gazprom itself, are very interested in prices.
We're curious about the trend.
And, frankly, he looks pretty impressive.
Even a little scary, I would probably say so.
And it is precisely in parallel to this New Year's Eve price rally, which is reflected throughout Europe, but arranged by no means in Europe, but, as we understand it, primarily by London stock speculators (well, here, as they say, there was a girl Europe, herself, in general, a fool , and guilty), - the Russian "Gazprom" actually zeroed supplies through the Polish gas pipeline Yamal - Europe.
With quite, by the way, standard and appropriate reporting, the official wording: "Due to the decline in applications from European consumers."
Which, by the way, is the pure truth: although a little crafty, this also happens to the truth.
One can believe in it, one can not believe it, but in this particular case it is more than numbers - quite open to themselves and verified by any interested and qualified observer.
In fact, this is a fairly typical movement of energy and financial flows, and the fluctuations that arise within these flows are quite peculiar, sometimes even exciting fluctuations.
However, despite all these rather intelligible explanations, the Russian gas giant is in no hurry to replenish its UGS facilities through the Polish gas corridor (as well as through the Ukrainian one, by the way).
And there is really nothing really surprising about this either.
In a word, to make everything simple and clear to our inquisitive reader, let's say very bluntly: no matter what the Western media write about it, the current “price rally” is taking place in Europe not in the interests of the Russian supplier.
Which, in general, does not even benefit from these prices directly.
No, let's not be honest - over time, such a delightful "upward movement" will certainly become really profitable for Gazprom.
We will not draw selfless pink ponies from our gasmen.
It would be stupid.
But, as they say, on the short shoulder of Gazprom, these peaks, sorry, in general, in half.
So, some kind of flickering in the market, ripples on the surface of the pond, the current small adjustment.
Everything is simple here.
And the point is not even that (not on our initiative, by the way, glory to all the same "British experts" who worked out these decisions for the European Union, from where the British themselves, for some reason, a little later gave on sneakers through Brexit) spot prices, even if and with a serious time lag, but nevertheless they will be reflected, among other things, in Gazprom's "long" contracts. This is just quite normal, especially from the point of view of a solid and reliable supplier, who, moreover, warned consumers about the consequences of their stupid decisions at one time, even impeccably honestly.
It's just that any exchange, let's face it, speculation, regardless of the direction of price movement, is “not business” for such serious players as the Russian Gazprom.
For them, this is simply undignified.
And not just from the point of view of reputation: it's just a different sector of the market, and in principle.
And the point here, of course, is not that only bright market idealists serve in Gazprom, who do not like to make money on current human troubles.
Still as you like.
It is quite a capitalist enterprise; in general, it never smelled of altruism.
It's just that such large offices as Gazprom, even in their forecasts, have no right to focus on short-term market fluctuations: their projects live in a completely different time dimension.
And their profits are not fixed on a daily basis.
It's just contrary to their very physical nature.
And in general, this business is "at its peak" - it is not for real large suppliers, but for brokers, or, perhaps, for a part (for the gas markets, not the most significant, by the way) "catching the moment" gas traders.
But not for the real, not “exchange” players, who are shaping the energy markets of the European continent, dealing with real, and by no means “paper” supplies.
Still, one should not confuse the "movement of a futures in the market", expressed in beautiful graphs on monitors, and physical deliveries of goods.
Don't make people laugh.
And to be completely honest - yes, the sharp decline in supplies through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, of course, is directly related to the exchange prices of everything on the same London ICE stock exchange.
But this connection, you will laugh, has the opposite sign: just at the prices that have now been established as a result of "fair and market" exchange trading, no one in Europe is actually going to buy gas unless absolutely necessary.
Neither Gazprom, nor the Norwegians, nor the Algerians, nor even the Martians.
And Gazprom, in turn, does not book additional transit.
Neither the Poles, nor the "friendly" Ukrainian GTS.
Including the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, of course.
In the absence of real purchases, why would the Russians need to book additional capacities, especially in such a market situation?
So that some kind of "beautiful" movement was or purely to make people laugh?
That, in fact, is the whole clue to the decline in the volume of supplies along the Polish transit corridor, as well as, by the way, along the Ukrainian one.
And no politics here, purely business.
Moreover, the business is determined not by Russian suppliers, but primarily by real European buyers.
As Frau Merkel once said, albeit on a slightly different occasion, "Nord Stream 2 is a purely commercial project."
And at the same time, as we are now convinced, she was just almost perfectly right.
And the fact that in Europe is now suddenly a little colder, it just coincided.
We've already written about this once, really, and the situation hasn't changed a bit because of this: it's just that, as always unexpectedly, winter suddenly came in the Northern Hemisphere.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.