With Omicron, beware of the conflagration or “Christmas miracle”?

• In France, the number of hospitalizations and people in intensive care are stagnating, unlike the number of cases, which are soaring.

• A decorrelation that finally gives hope for good news in the face of this epidemic.

  Stack for Christmas, too.

• But with the coronavirus, we now know: we must always be wary.

Are we witnessing a real Christmas miracle?

In France, while coronavirus contaminations explode - more than 72,000 new cases on Tuesday, 15% more than last week - hospitalizations (1,239 on average per day over the week, 5% more than there is week), and especially resuscitation (257 critical care admissions per day on average over the week, an increase of… 0% compared to seven days ago) are stagnating.

An atypical decorrelation in the history of the epidemic in France.

Is it the hope of a way out of the crisis, or the calm before the storm? 

takes stock.

Is such a decorrelation normal?

There is a classic lag, of several weeks, between the increase in the number of cases and that of hospitalizations then resuscitations. Allow about a week to ten days for the increase in cases to translate into an increase in hospitalizations, and about the same duration for the increase in resuscitations to occur. Only here, the cases do not cease increasing for weeks, and the only explanation of the temporal interval does not hold any more.

"This is a fairly new phenomenon, but we must not forget that it is very difficult to compare the periods", warns Dr. Franck Clarot straight away. Not the same vaccination coverage, not the same immunity in the population ... A fairly similar phenomenon nevertheless took place during the fourth wave this summer, with a strong difference between the cases and the number of hospitalizations and resuscitations, probably due to the vaccine. But here again, the comparison quickly reaches its limits: "It was summer, we lived outside", notes Franck Clarot. An outdoor life much less conducive to contamination, which is further proof of the “exploit” of this month of December, which gives pride of place to enclosed spaces.

Yannick Simonin, virologist at the University of Montpellier, puts forward an explanation: of course, the cases are on the rise, but the incidence is decreasing in those over 65 years old, the population being the most likely to be hospitalized or even to be admitted in intensive care.

These seniors represent 70% of hospitalizations and 50% of critical care since the start of the crisis, according to Public Health France.

And their falling incidence would be due, according to the virologist, to the famous booster dose: "This category of the population is the one with the best vaccination coverage: 65% have already received their booster dose, which greatly reduces the risk of hospitalization and entry into intensive care.

"

Does Omicron play a role in this decorrelation?

The increase in cases in France is notably driven by the Omicron variant, which would represent 20%, according to government spokesperson Gabriel Attal on Tuesday. However, several studies suggest that Omicron is less virulent than the Delta variant.

While the UK has seen a 92% increase in cases in one week, hospitalizations there have increased by… 2% at the same time. Media Politico also unveiled on Wednesday the findings of a report from the British Health Agency expected by Christmas, according to which "Britons who fall ill with Omicron are less likely to become seriously ill than those who have caught Delta ”. A finding close to that established in South Africa. The country, the first to be massively affected by Omicron, has not seen a gigantic increase in hospitalizations and deaths. The differences between the populations (median age of 28 years in South Africa, against 40 in France) had, however, prevented conclusions from being drawn for Europe.

A report from the Statens Serum Institut, in Denmark, the king country of sequencing and massively affected by Omicron, establishes that only 0.6% of people infected with Omicron, from November 22 to December 15, were hospitalized, against 1.4% those contaminated by Delta.

Likewise in France, Omicron is very present in Paris - it would already represent more than 50% of cases.

However, in the capital, while the cases explode, the number of entries in sheaves is decreasing.

Should we then see a link?

"It's probably a bit early to say it, tempers Franck Clarot.

For the moment, there is no reason to think that Omicron would be more virulent, nor even as virulent as Delta ”.

Caution, therefore, in the face of an unpredictable epidemic.

Can Omicron be a blessing for the epidemic?

This "encouraging" news - which requires confirmation - may suggest that Omicron would ultimately be a "good" thing: a variant that would contaminate the population, naturally immunizing against future infections, but without sending in a reaction. A little too “Christmas miracle” to be true? The reality will undoubtedly be much more nuanced.

Yannick Simonin invites in any case to keep our feet on the ground: “We still lack data to be categorical on the influence that Omicron may have. If we want to be optimistic, there are reassuring elements in recent days. The booster dose appears to be very effective in preventing severe forms, but also infection with this variant. In addition, until now, Omicron has not been associated with waves of hospitalization in the various countries facing it. We have to wait for consolidated data to know whether, in the end, this variant is much less formidable than what one might have feared initially. "

Same tone with Franck Clarot, especially since even if the variant turns out to be less virulent, it is not benign for all that: “We cannot seek to obtain natural immunity at the cost of tens of thousands of deaths. .

So let's all remain cautious during this holiday season, with a third dose, a barrier gesture.

And ventilation despite the cold.

Health

Coronavirus in Île-de-France: The bar of 10,000 contaminations per day reached because of the Omicron variant

Health

Coronavirus: More than 100,000 contaminations per day by the end of December, according to Olivier Véran

• Covid 19

• Vaccine

• Coronavirus

• Omicron variant

• Health

• epidemic

• Delta variant

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