This fall, Russia undertook a complex and beautiful maneuver to get out of the narrow corridor of opportunities, where the United States and China are pushing it, making us in fact a hostage, obliged to make a choice: we are in an alliance with the United States or China.
It is bad to choose one of the two - under any circumstances.
So we seem to have decided to play a more difficult game.
Do not throw yourself into anyone's ultimatum alliance.
Try to write your own script.
And in December, the heat of this geopolitical game reached its climax.
But first things first.
Squeezed from both sides by Beijing and Washington, Russia in search of an alternative strategy turned towards India and South Asia, trying to create a kind of third alliance between the Anglo-Saxon anti-Chinese AUKUS (Australia, Britain, USA) and the Chinese "brotherhood".
Under your umbrella.
In general, Russia remembered ASEAN - the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a potentially strong geopolitical alliance in the currently hypersensitive Indo-Pacific region.
The ASEAN headquarters is located in Indonesian Jakarta, its members are ten states of the region: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia.
On December 1, 2021, to the delight of our "Western partners", Russia and ASEAN began their first joint naval exercise, marking "a new turn in security in a region torn by territorial disputes with China and the emergence of a new US-led alliance, AUKUS."
The exercise lasted three days, and was attended by ships from seven of the ten ASEAN member countries, along with the ship of the Pacific Fleet "Admiral Panteleev".
All the action took place in the territorial waters of Indonesia off the coast of North Sumatra.
Take a look at the map, and you will understand many of the events that happened later.
"These exercises are aimed at maintaining peace, stability and prosperity in the region," said Alexander Ivanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to ASEAN, at the opening ceremony.
Our "western partners" were having a heart attack at this time.
Chinese friend Xi has a panic attack: for several countries of Southeast Asia have maritime disputes with China over the Southeast Sea (including those same Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.).
The message to Russia, which fell out of the big game in Southeast Asia for two decades after the collapse of the USSR, is that we are back.
Russia sold $ 10 billion worth of weapons to Southeast Asian countries between 2000 and 2019, according to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), making it the region's largest arms supplier.
In recent years, Russia has held joint military exercises with Vietnam, Laos and Brunei, and has a serious impact on what is happening in Myanmar.
Not to mention the fact that even in the "pro-American" India of Modi, Russia is the leader among the exporters of arms.
In a sense, the US even helped Russia return to the Indo-Pacific by announcing the anti-Chinese AUKUS alliance in mid-September 2021.
Vladimir Putin at the Russia-ASEAN summit (via videoconference)
kremlin.ru
So it became clear that the Americans did not fully trust India, because there was QUAD, almost the same anti-Chinese alliance with India and Japan on board.
This means that somehow Washington did not suit Washington in the new geopolitical reality, since India and Japan were "thrown out" of the strategic four.
One can imagine how quickly Russian strategists realized that the moment was historically extremely successful, and, conventionally, Putin says to Modi: “Well, you see, these are Americans, you cannot trust them.
They, like the Chinese, drive them into a corner to deprive them of the possibility of an alternative choice, and press, press, until they press.
We need to show them that such major states as ours have the opportunity to create their own unions and build their own scenarios. "
In general, while the tale is telling, at this time the work is done.
After the creation of AUKUS, contacts between Moscow, New Delhi and Southeast Asia began to intensify, one might say, to revive at an unprecedented speed.
Events in chronological order:
On October 28, 2021, the Russian president held the Russia-ASEAN online summit, signing a comprehensive 103-point action plan to expand cooperation from 2021 to 2025.
On December 1, the joint military exercises of Russia and ASEAN began.
On December 6, Putin, for the second time since the pandemic, left Russia on a foreign visit.
And this important "trip" turned out to be a very important visit to India and a meeting with Narendra Modi.
In New Delhi, the Russian president called India a "time-tested friend," adding that military cooperation with India is unlike any other country.
“We treat India as a great power with a friendly people and a wonderful history of our relations,” Putin said.
According to the President of the Russian Federation, in the first nine months of this year, the growth of trade between our countries amounted to 38% after more than 17% decline in the past.
Putin did not fly to New Delhi alone - the Russian team was also represented by the heads of the foreign policy and defense departments, who, while Modi was talking with Putin, had a meeting with their Indian counterparts in the "2 + 2" format.
Officially announced results of Putin's visit to India:
1. Multimillion-dollar contract for the joint production of AK-203.
2. The start of deliveries of S-400 missile systems, the first division should be delivered from the Russian Federation to India, according to the schedule, by the end of 2021;
an agreement worth $ 5.43 billion was signed in 2018 despite US protests.
3. The Russian Federation plans to increase the number of its weapons produced in India - the production of Russian Ka-226T helicopters is to begin there in the near future.
Putin's visit to India and her active play in ASEAN greatly excited our American and Chinese partners.
After Putin's October summit in November, Beijing held its summit with ASEAN, and three weeks later, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken went on a tour of the region to, I quote, "raise ties with ASEAN to an unprecedented level."
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at the talks in Indonesia.
December 14, 2021
AP
© Olivier Douliery
On December 13, 2021, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev paid a two-day visit to Indonesia, where he met with President Joko Widodo.
After the head of the Security Council arrived in Jakarta, the US Secretary of State also flew there.
From Jakarta Patrushev went to Cambodia.
And where Patrushev is, we are talking about the most sensitive strategic interests of the Russian Federation.
These are top-level visits, which is why he meets with the presidents.
And "accidentally" he collides with the US Secretary of State.
In general, friends, we are witnessing a strong and beautiful game: Russia, China and the United States entered into a competitive struggle for influence in the most promising and strategically important region of South Asia in the coming decade.
Well, in addition, our "Western partners" should be pleased that a meeting is scheduled between Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi in February.
Western Asia with Iran at the crossroads between Afghanistan, Central Asia and India is of interest to us too.
Let me remind you that the meeting between Putin and Raisi is scheduled for a period when Iran is playing for time, putting forward unrealistic demands on the United States on nuclear talks in Vienna, enriching uranium at Stakhanov's pace and teasing Israel with its military nuclear program like a carrot.
What pleases me personally?
Beautiful game.
What's worried about?
Russia is facing a fierce bloody battle - at least with our "Western partners" - over this sensitive region.
China will turn on too.
Why, this game has already begun.
No sooner had Putin left India than a serious debriefing began there.
And, alas, in the literal sense.
A Mi-17V-5 helicopter of the Indian Air Force with the chief of the country's defense staff, Bipin Rawat, crashed near Coonoor, Tamil Nadu.
December 8, 2021
AFP
Look: Putin is in India on December 6, with him in New Delhi Shoigu and Lavrov are meeting with their Indian colleagues in the "2 + 2" format.
Well, you remember: deliveries of S-400 missile systems, Kalashnikov assault rifles, Rostec plans to launch production of its Ka-226T multi-machine guns in India.
Light multipurpose helicopter Ka-226T
© rostec.ru
On December 8, 2021, during a trip to the southern state of Tamil Nadu, the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Indian Armed Forces, General Bipin Rawat, is killed.
And it breaks - attention!
- on the Russian Mi-17 helicopter.
And on December 17, on the territory of the "Severnaya Verf" in St. Petersburg, a fire broke out on the corvette "Provorny" under construction.
What does the corvette and the history of India and ASEAN have to do with it, you ask.
I answer.
Corvette "Provorny" is the second ship of project 20385, which is a continuation of project 20380, whose main ship is the corvette "Guarding", transferred to the Baltic Fleet in 2007.
To the gallery page
Both corvettes, "Guarding" and "Agile" - ships of the second rank, plowing coastal waters primarily for security purposes.
To fight other ships.
Because the "Provorny" is equipped with a powerful air defense system with shipborne rifle complexes, into which missiles of the "Caliber", "Onyx" or "Zircon" type can be installed.
And this burned-out corvette of ours was supposed to go ... That's right, to the Pacific Ocean.
Its intended purpose is the Kamchatka flotilla, ensuring the exit of our strategic missile carriers to the sea.
In almost 20 hours of the fire, the fire on the "Provorny" corvette under construction spread to almost 800 square meters.
m. "This is almost the entire corvette," - Interfax quotes the United Duty Dispatch Service.
These dramatic events (I cite only a couple of them as an example) - coincidence or not - are today behind the scenes of world politics, while on the stage China, the United States and Russia determine who, where and with whom to go next.
And maybe it will become clearer what the "aggravation" actually stands behind the initiative of Russia addressed to the West, namely, behind the draft treaty between Moscow and Washington on security guarantees and agreements on ensuring the security of Russia and NATO member countries sent by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs ...
Perhaps the activation of Russia in the region of strategic interest and confrontation between the US and China is a "mirroring" of the US activity in the zones of influence that Moscow considers "its own."
“The biggest debt for the United States is to learn to perceive Russia as a partner with whom it is possible and necessary to conduct a mutually respectful dialogue based on a balance of interests, and not through the imposition of some of its unilateral schemes or the issuance of ultimatums.
In all directions, "said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
Mutually respectful dialogue will be difficult.
And we will see many more dramatic events.
But the game is worth the candle.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.