Overflow of the Ebro: "We must be very careful whether or not to attribute floods to climate change"

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Floods due to the rising of the Ebro river, like those suffered a few days ago in the Basque Country and Navarra, are phenomena that, unfortunately, have been happening for thousands of years and will continue to happen in the future, according to experts. It is not possible to establish a direct relationship between catastrophes such as the current one and climate change, although it does seem clear that, despite the current warming trend, these processes, traditionally linked to cold, will continue to occur.

"Floods

. They are events that have a high irregularity, a chaotic distribution in time. So, it seems that we have forgotten about the last flood, and that this is something that had never happened. But, when the data is analyzed, one realizes that these phenomena are recurrent, "explains Gerardo Benito, a CSIC researcher at the National Museum of Natural Sciences (MNCN-CSIC) and author of important investigations on floods. .

"Any event that is happening today is very difficult to attribute to climate change.

which, in turn, is reflected in peak rains that lead to flooding. But not it is that it is a new subject ", clarifies. "In the case of the Ebro, the last time was in 2015. There are many floods throughout history that put in context that these phenomena are there. You have to determine their magnitude and frequency to establish the hazard maps, which are the that the administrations then use to do the zoning in the national system of flood zones ", adds Benito.

A report published in the prestigious 'Nature' in 2020, of which Benito is a co-author, pointed out that,

, compared to the last 500 years. However, this expert clarifies, that does not mean that climate change is causing them directly, although it will accentuate meteorological phenomena. "In the northern part of Europe there is an increase in the frequency of floods, which occurs in a warm period of global warming. One of the interesting conclusions of this work is that, even though the temperature is important, the most important thing is the detailed processes that generate these situations ", he details.

"The processes [that cause flooding], regardless of temperature,

; but it is those atmospheric processes, of general circulation in the atmosphere, which are important for understand floods ", emphasizes Benito. Overflows like the ones we are experiencing, he explains, "have to do in most cases with the position of the Azores anticyclone in the winter months, which is when we receive this type of rain; and, on the other hand , the position of the Siberian anticyclone, which can also cause a traffic jam ".

This year, Benito indicates, "

".

On the contrary, if the anticyclone were located further south, the circulation would come from the west and the heavy rains would no longer occur in the Basque Country and Navarre, but in Portugal and the west of the Peninsula.

The Duero, the Tagus and the Guadalquivir would in this case be the rivers most exposed to flooding.

A very dry year in the Peninsula

"This year is really dry," adds this expert, so "from an agricultural and water resources point of view, the situation in the west would be better for us," he reasons. In addition, remember, "in general, in the Iberian Peninsula it is better to be from the west, because that way

", although this does not prevent that there have also been floods on occasions.

What has happened this year is that, in addition, there have been "very insistent and very persistent rains in the north of the country", which in turn have been combined with "

and has added an extra humidity that has made it rain even more ", according to Mar Gómez, PhD in Physical Sciences and head of Meteorology at 'eltiempo.es'.

"In addition to the rains, we have also had the thaw, the two things have been added. The rains we have been receiving since November. In many areas of the upper Ebro basin it

. All this rain it has been accumulating, "he adds.

"In addition, it has been snowing during the previous weeks. When the temperatures have risen, that snow has melted and has gone to the rivers. All this has caused a flood of the river of this nature so serious that we are seeing right now and that we have seen in Navarra during the previous days, "continues Gómez, who agrees that it is not possible to establish a direct connection between this process and climate change:"

. "

In contrast, Gómez points out, "

" he exposes, something that does not happen in this case.

"You have to be very careful about attributing it or not attributing it to climate change because, in reality, it is something that we cannot know in the first instance," he concludes.

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