Are we getting closer to the peak of the fifth wave of Covid-19?

• France recorded 72,000 new contaminations in 24 hours on Wednesday, December 8, a new record while the Omicron variant threatens.

• The government and various experts nevertheless want to be reassuring, saying that the peak of the fifth wave is approaching despite unclear dates.

• At the hospital, which suffers a delay of two weeks on the number of contaminations, we are preparing to spend a Christmas under high tension.

“Nothing allows us to say that the peak is already taking shape, on the other hand we can say that its impact on the hospital will continue into the month of January.

"Asked by

on the arrival of the peak of the fifth wave of the coronavirus epidemic, Pr Djillali Annane, head of the intensive care unit of the Raymond-Poincaré hospital of the AP-HP, confirmed the trend : the pic "is coming", it remains to be seen when.

Before him, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran and the government spokesman Gabriel Attal wanted to be optimistic, and other experts announced more or less close dates.

So are we really approaching the peak of the fifth wave? 

takes stock.

When will the peak of the fifth wave of Covid-19 take place?

We do not know the exact date, but it seems to be in front of us. Gabriel Attal thus indicated on France Inter Tuesday that it was "certainly not passed". On LCI, Antoine Flahault, director of the Geneva Institute of Global Health, assured that this peak would occur around December 15. A relaxation at Christmas could however call everything into question. Jean-François Delfraissy, President of the Scientific Council, on November 22 was counting on a peak "in January", because of the increased circulation of the virus due to the cold.

An unknown remains: the Omicron variant. Although few cases have been detected in France, this new strain of Covid-19 is transmitted even more easily than the Delta variant. To the point of leaning Djillali Annane for a very unpleasant scenario: an "epidemic plateau until spring", similar to what had been observed last winter.

But the "slowdown in epidemic growth" noted by the Minister of Health may well be a sign that the climax of this wave is approaching.

The phenomenon has moreover been observed in Eastern European countries, and more recently in Germany.

This is also the opinion of Dr. Martin Blachier, regularly interviewed on television sets, who believes on his Twitter account that “the peak will be over” at Christmas, in less than three weeks.

Olivier Véran evokes, him, a peak which could be reached "by the end of the month" if the French apply a "strict respect of barrier gestures".

What indices are the experts based on?

On the numbers. And the raw data is no cause for celebration. With an incidence rate of 448 across the city, the time when masks fell in elementary school seems a long way off. On Wednesday, 72,000 new contaminations were recorded in twenty-four hours, a record exceeding that of November 2020. Nevertheless, the Minister of Health wanted to be reassuring on Thursday: "We are seeing a slowdown in epidemic growth: we were at + 60% of cases in one week, then + 40%, now it is between + 25 and + 30% ”. In fact, the CovidTracker statistical tool reports a 44% increase in cases over a week to December 5.

And if the curve seems to be getting smoother, it does not bode well for a future decrease: there are always more new contaminants.

The R0, which indicates how many people are infected by a sick person, is 1.48, which CovidTracker calls “high and low”.

Phew?

Not really, given the other numbers.

The symbolic bar of 100 deaths per day has been crossed, which we had not seen since this summer, and no slowdown has been observed on this side.

In the hospital, moreover, "Covid-19 cases occupy on average 40% of intensive care beds in Ile-de-France, and 70% in my department," laments Professor Djillali Annane.

Exactly, what about the peak hospital?

Region after region, white plans are triggered in hospitals. "The white plan will also probably be national within a few days," noted Olivier Véran. A not insignificant measure, underlines Djillali Annane, "because it is harmful for the people whose operations are delayed" and for the staff. According to him, the issue is not even to "release the pressure" on the hospital, but "to prevent it from worsening". "When I arrive in the morning, my main concern is to have enough staff for the next twenty-four hours", he alarms himself, while 14% of the beds in his department are already closed for lack. of caregivers available.

Epidemic peak from December 15 or not, the fifth wave will therefore hit the hospital head-on during the holidays, due to the "incubation period and then mild symptoms before hospitalization" which causes a "delay of fifteen days. between epidemic wave and hospital wave ”, explains the doctor.

But above all, exhausted by two years of fighting against the coronavirus, the hospital has "no room for maneuver", and the department head does not want "to imagine that we can eliminate the end of year leave" to caregivers because "fatigue is there".

Hoping that we don't have any “until spring”, as the professor fears.

Health

Coronavirus in Guadeloupe: Saturated hospitals take the full brunt of the epidemic "peak"

Society

Coronavirus: Where will the French be able to travel at Christmas?

• Coronavirus

• Health

• Covid 19

• Health pass

• Hospital

• Anti-covid vaccine

• 0 comment

• 0 share

  • Share on Messenger

  • Share on Facebook

  • Share on twitter

  • Share on Flipboard

  • Share on Pinterest

  • Share on Linkedin

  • Send by Mail

• To safeguard

• A fault ?

• To print