[Explanation] On December 2, the 2021 China Real Estate Big Data Annual Conference and 2022 China Real Estate Market Trends Report will be held in Beijing. At the meeting, the organizer Beijing Zhongzhi Information Technology Research Institute released the report "China Real Estate Market 2021 Summary & 2022 Outlook".

  [Explanation] The report shows that in the first 11 months, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in 50 representative cities increased year-on-year, but the transaction volume in the second half of the year fell to the lowest level since 2015.

Qin Hong, former director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and director of the Urban Renewal Research Center of the National Development Institute of Renmin University of China, said that this phenomenon rarely occurs.

  [Concurrent] Qin Hong, former director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development

  When the growth of China's real estate market changes, either falls or rises, generally speaking, the front-end market, real estate development investment, and new construction area will lag behind the end market by 3 to 6 months.

However, this year is the first half of the year, and the second half of the year is all up, and there is no lagging change. This is something that has rarely happened in the past.

  [Explanation] Qin Hong believes that this situation has a lot to do with government policies.

  [Concurrent] Qin Hong, former director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development

  It is the “three red lines” management of the debt ratio of real estate companies that we started in August last year and the management of the concentration of real estate loans of commercial banks that we have implemented since this year. This policy has tightened both the demand for funds in the real estate industry and the supply of funds at the same time. , Has changed the development model of high leverage, high turnover, and high gross profit that the real estate industry has formed in the past 20 years.

  [Explanation] The report also predicts the trend of housing prices in 2022.

Huang Yu, executive vice president of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, said that according to the report, China's commercial housing sales may decline in 2022, and the average sales price will increase structurally by 2% to 3.5%.

  [Concurrent] Huang Yu, Executive Vice President of China Finger Research Institute

  The prediction result is that our real estate sales area will be 16.1 to 1.64 billion square meters, which is a decrease of 8.3% to 6.8% compared to 2021.

At the same time, the price of our commercial housing is due to structural reasons, because we see the future, including this year, whether we look at the land market, its structure is constantly optimizing, and its demand is also concentrated in some of these cities with more attractive populations. Under the circumstance that the proportion of first- and second-tier cities will gradually increase, we can see that there will be a 2%-3.5% increase in our sales price.

  [Explanation] Huang Yu pointed out that under the new market background, real estate companies should operate steadily, stabilize cash flow, and not blindly invest.

  Reporter Liu Chao reports from Beijing

Editor in charge: [Zhang Kaixin]

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