While the government announced measures to fight against the fifth wave of Covid-19 on Thursday, a French study published in
The Lancet
reveals the places where the French were most infected this summer.
If public transport does not justify its bad reputation since the start of the pandemic, bars and schools confirm their status as places at risk.
Doctor Michaël Rochoy, interviewed by
20 Minutes
, pleads for greater recourse to teleworking, attention paid to wearing a mask and a reinforced protocol at school.
Take the bus for four stops?
No way, crammed with all these strangers who may be sick.
Have a drink on the terrace?
Why not, we have the health pass.
The coronavirus has changed our habits, and the evolution of the rules but also the weariness of having to respect the barrier gestures has disturbed the modes of contamination.
While Olivier Véran announced measures on Thursday to stem the fifth wave of Covid-19, a study published in
The Lancet
looks at the places of contamination.
Decryption with epidemiology researcher Michaël Rochoy.
When and how was this study carried out?
The study, carried out by French researchers from the Institut Pasteur and the Sorbonne, covers the period from May 23 to August 13, 2021. “A moment when we were coming out of the third wave,” warns Michaël Rochoy. Or a period of calm before a new surge in contamination in July due to the Delta variant in some departments. The study therefore covers different degrees of circulation of the virus.
The figures are taken from questionnaires sent to 236,000 infected people and 79,000 non-sick “controls” people.
In both cases, around 8% of respondents responded, and with adjustments to obtain a representative sample, this leaves 12,634 positive cases and 5,560 controls.
With nearly 70% of women in both groups, "because men answer questionnaires less often", points out the doctor.
However, if this "informs a little more about female behavior", the study remains valid since "the virus does not make a difference," says Michaël Rochoy.
Where are we most at risk of being contaminated?
Unsurprisingly, "in bars, at sport and at school", states the one who is also a member of the collective
Du Côté de la science
. Results verified by comparing the activities of infected people with those of control people. By combining the data, we obtain what specialists call the “adjusted odd ratio” or aOR, a figure that allows us to assess the risk of getting infected compared to the average.
Thus, bars (aOR of 1.9, or 90% more chance), and parties (in discos or private, with an aOR of 3.4) are places particularly at risk for those under 40.
The aOR there even exploded to 5.2 and 15.1 for this age group between June 13 and July 12.
This is also the case more generally for private ceremonies (marriage, funeral, aOR of 1.7) and at work, the aOR of retirees and the unemployed being 0.5.
In short, “all the times when we take the mask off” and where there is relaxation, explains Michaël Rochoy.
Parents over 40 with children in nursery or primary (1.6 and 1.4) are also more exposed.
And when it comes to sport, only those practiced indoors seem problematic with regard to the famous aOR.
Regarding transport, air travel and long-distance train travel increase the risk of contamination (1.7 and 1.3), as well as subways. But this is not the case with other public transport, contrary to popular belief: on the contrary, the adjusted odd ratio goes down to 0.7 in the bus and the tram, “where there is better control of the port of mask, ”insists the doctor. The results were differentiated in the use of the car: the risks of contamination are much higher when taken with family and friends (1.3) than in the context of carpooling (0.5). If it would first be necessary to confirm that the mask falls or remains on the nose as the case may be, "this can be a good demonstration that even in an enclosed space, we are much less at risk by wearing the mask", estimates the specialist. .
What lessons can be learned to fight against the fifth wave?
For the researcher in epidemiology, the teaching is clear: "We must insist in prevention on the wearing of a mask".
For the school, it would be necessary "to pass to a reinforced protocol".
“Children protect themselves well when they are in class, but these efforts are spoiled by indoor sport without a mask and by the canteen every noon where they are stirred by level,” notes Michaël Rochoy.
He suggests that the students stay in small groups during meals without a mask, and regrets that the work for better ventilation has not been done.
"Since July 2020 that we are talking about it, the work would already be finished" if they had started after the first wave.
Finally, the doctor hopes for a “transparent discourse, with quantified objectives” to provoke a better awareness. Thus, he submits the idea of reinstating gauges in certain places and wonders at what threshold it will be necessary to close bars and restaurants. "As it is a place of contamination, it is necessarily a lever for action", he pleads, adding that the establishment of indicators would allow these professions "to anticipate, not to close with full refrigerators ”.
A way to avoid these closures, according to Michaël Rochoy?
Teleworking, since “the adjusted odd ratio is 1.9 for executives, who hold a lot of meetings”.
“Teleworking reduces mixing at work, in meetings, moments shared without a mask during breaks… Of course, this must be adapted to the wishes of employees;
but many patients would like to take it back and are forced to come back in person, ”he testifies.
However, after the meeting between Elisabeth Borne and the world of work Thursday morning, the return to large-scale teleworking was not on the agenda.
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