Well, what can be said here - it certainly looks rather fresh and somewhat unexpected, but the news of the suspension of the certification process for the operator of the recently completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, the Swiss company Nord Stream 2 AG, which is currently a 100% subsidiary of Gazprom (however, burdened with various interesting - primarily financial - obligations from European partners, but more on that below), caused a much more violent reaction in the Western press than in the domestic mass media.
Well, as for, in fact, the Russian government bodies (and Gazprom, which represents their interests on the European gas markets), then there is a kind of icy Olympic calmness, for our taste, bordering, we would even say, with a certain if you like, "strategic indifference."
A kind of "do what you must, and come what may" (no matter who this phrase is attributed to), now sounding something like "we have built a gas pipeline, and then it's up to you to decide."
And what is most funny here is that there is no chivalrous idealism in the position of an authorized Russian gas concern, which naturally did not even come close - this office, excuse me, has a slightly different specialization.
Solid, not at all romantic, but quite rational-pragmatic even to itself (the enemies would probably even say “cynical”, but we, of course, would not believe them), but, as practice shows, a fairly accurate calculation.
However, let's go in order.
Although, as evidenced by the data of the ICE Futures platform, the price of gas futures in Europe by the close of trading on Friday and fell by 9.4%, it still hit records in some way unplanned over the past week.
Even on the same Friday, the value of December gas futures, according to the index of the Dutch gas hub TTF, which is determining for European markets, at the opening of the trading session was almost $ 1,100.
And on Thursday, November 18, it was completely fixed at $ 1121.8.
At the same time, it should be noted separately that the cost of December futures rose sharply exactly when it was decided to suspend certification of Nord Stream 2 AG.
In addition, the dynamics of price growth, which is quite unpleasant for European consumers, simply could not but be influenced by the results of monthly "transit" auctions: despite everything, Gazprom did not book the capacity of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline and the Ukrainian gas transmission system for December transit of Russian blue fuel.
And, excuse me, why?
After that, in five trading days, the calculated price jumped by more than a quarter and on Thursday, November 18, amounted to the same $ 1121.8 - not a record, of course, but already quite unpleasant.
Therefore, the concern of the European inhabitants, as well as of the European press, is quite understandable.
The topic for them is more than relevant, sorry.
Or, to put it quite simply: it is rather cold there, and heating is already too expensive.
Inevitably, you will get worried here.
As for Gazprom itself, it has absolutely nothing to worry about: in December, even the most optimistic top managers of the Russian gas concern did not even intend to supply blue fuel via Nord Stream 2.
There were no prerequisites for this, but in general, sorry, no.
Moreover.
Both Gazprom's management, authorized officials in the Russian government, and even Russian President Vladimir Putin have made it clear on more than one occasion that the existing capacities are quite enough for the current execution of European contracts for Russian suppliers.
No, there are, of course, some reservations: it is not a fact that the European markets will certainly have enough of these previously contracted volumes of Russian gas to survive the coming winter.
But this, you see, is not our question a bit.
It will be possible to talk about "new contracts" for supplies a little later, when the long-suffering Nord Stream 2 is certified and finally launched in full compliance with European legislation.
In general, everything is pretty transparent.
In the meantime, Gazprom is happy with everything: technically, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has been completed “in hardware”, and even without being certified and commissioned for commercial operation, in fact it is already working.
And for the Russian supplier itself, albeit “at the other end”, even though it looks rather complicated, as they say, it also completely “fights back”: on the same, say, price fluctuations in the spot markets.
These fluctuations (glory to the brilliant "power engineers" from the European Commission, this is their embodied idea) with a certain time lag is reflected in the "long" existing contracts.
To the delight of Gazprom and to the slight annoyance of its European partners.
Which, as a result, still have to pay a little more expensive.
But even this irritation refers not to the Russian gas concern, but to European politicians.
And first of all to the former European Commissioner for Energy, Latvian Andris Piebalgs, and his British consultants who later made their legs out of European structures through Brexit (who, let's be frank, were in charge of Piebalgs in his commission).
And whose efforts to "transform European energy markets" the German-speaking industrial countries in the light of the approaching winter simply could not help but "appreciate" and remember with a quiet kind word.
Immediately you need to understand: in fact, in the end, it is not the Russian seller, or even the European wholesaler or trader, who will pay for all these exercises, but the final European consumer.
This is the very nature of markets, and any man in the street understands this.
Therefore, the average German burgher and / or the industrial enterprise where he works will still pay for all delays in putting the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline into operation (if it has not yet gone bankrupt under the current conditions): nothing personal, but for someone you still have to pay.
Therefore, Gazprom is calm.
Just because I no longer intend, heroically overcoming difficulties, to drag chestnuts for continental Europeans from the fire kindled by their Anglo-Saxon partners: we used to do this for some reason, and some of our politicians and businessmen, and in general, it seems, received from this process a kind of perverse pleasure.
But now it seems that these unclouded times are finally over.
And it is quite enough for Gazprom in this entertaining story to maintain that very “strategic indifference”.
Moreover, to do this proceeding not from all sorts of emotions, sometimes even righteous ones, but from a sober, pragmatic calculation.
And do not rush anywhere.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.