Actually, no one said that even with the purely legal design of the Nord Stream 2 project everything will be simple and smooth: we have written here more than once that the most interesting thing with the technical completion of the construction of a gas pipeline that is significant for the European subcontinent is just beginning, sorry.
Moreover, it was necessary to prepare for something like this from the outset: everyone was well aware that there would be a lot of pitfalls on the way of the new Russian-German gas pipeline to Europe.
And it's not even a matter of political opposition to the project, which undoubtedly takes place (it would be foolish, as they say, to deny the obvious) and which makes European - in this particular case German - officials cling to literally every comma.
There are still purely procedural complications, and some of them are quite planned in nature.
What happened on Tuesday just sounded loud enough, harsh and almost sensational, especially for the ear of a person who was not well prepared for information: yesterday it became known that the German Federal Network Agency temporarily suspended the certification procedure for the company Nord Stream 2 AG, registered in Switzerland (this is important) as an independent operator. At the same time, despite the fact that the suspension of certification of the operating company by the German Federal Agency was quite obvious organizational and legal (we would even say, procedural and, quite possibly, planned), what happened immediately affected the European energy markets: after the news about the suspension of certification Nord Stream 2 AG spot gas prices started to rise quite naturally.And quite quickly it exceeded the psychologically important mark of $ 1000 per thousand cubic meters at the TTF hub in the Netherlands (if anyone is interested, it rose at the moment to $ 1060, and this is far from the limit).
At the same time, which looks somehow especially amusing, neither the Russian Gazprom itself nor its European partners reacted in any way to this suspension.
And the operator of Nord Stream 2 AG said rather sparingly (we quote): "Our company is taking this step in order to ensure compliance with applicable rules and regulations" - that's all, sorry.
However, let's go in order.
As a reminder, the laying of the first string of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was completed in early June (it is already filled with gas), and the second was completed in September. At this point, the obligations undertaken by the Russian side can be considered fulfilled: according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, fuel supplies to Europe may begin the day after the German authorities issue their permission to operate the project. And now this is definitely not our question, below we will explain why.
As for the certification process itself, according to local legislation, it is given four months, and it must be completed no later than January 8, 2022. How much the suspension of the certification process will increase the project completion time is not yet entirely clear (German diplomatic sources claim that it will not increase it at all, but this is a moot point). It is only clear that this is a matter of a maximum of several weeks, which is absolutely irrelevant for a Russian supplier. Moreover, in the energy deficit market, any delay in the launch of a new gas pipeline will be compensated for by the price - here we must say a special thank you to the European Commission, which insisted that the spot price in one form or another should be taken into account on long contracts.
And in the current circumstances, the leadership of the Russian "Gazprom" can simply shrug their shoulders thoughtfully - it has absolutely nothing to do with it.
Money, sorry, to money.
However, the rather sluggish reaction of the markets (the current growth to $ 1060 at the moment, whatever one may say, it is difficult to call it very significant) indicates that traders are more inclined to believe the German side, which promises to meet the previous deadlines: the Germans are much more interested in the early certification. than the Russians, it would even be somewhat rash to deny it.
As for the direct legal side of the issue, everything is quite simple here too.
Whether we like it or not, Nord Stream 2 falls under the infamous Third Energy Package. Therefore, the operator Nord Stream 2 AG itself may belong to Gazprom, it may belong to its European partners, but at the same time Gazprom must prove the complete independence of its subsidiary from the Russian supplier in management and decision-making: these are the initial conditions. Well, since certification is taking place in Germany, Nord Stream 2 AG is now establishing a subsidiary there with a completely understandable and justified goal - to ensure compliance with all rules and regulatory requirements.
And, accordingly, the certification process will resume as soon as the operating company with its headquarters, registered in the Swiss city of Zug for tax reasons, transfers the share capital related to the German segment to the ownership of this new German subsidiary.
We emphasize once again: a purely procedural issue.
What is especially significant here is, we repeat, some absolutely Olympic calmness of the Russian supplier and its European partners. Gazprom was not even worried about the short-term drop in the market value of its own securities by about 2% amid the suspension of certification. And Gazprom is quite understandable here: let the stock speculators worry about this - for the Russian gas giant this is ordinary volatility, which will be compensated after some time, no one even doubts it. Structures of this kind do not think in such short time intervals at all, do not think "in the moment" - this is not their question.
The goal of the Russian supplier is somewhat further, and it is very clearly formulated: according to forecasts published at one time by the operator of the Nord Stream 2 project itself, by the middle of the next decade, the annual deficit of natural gas in European markets will amount to approximately 120 billion cubic meters.
The reasons are clear and have been voiced more than once: there is a decrease in domestic production, and a reorientation of suppliers to premium Asian markets, and much, much more.
So, Nord Stream 2, currently undergoing certification, covers only a third of this potential deficit, the rest of Europe will have to negotiate somehow (and with someone) separately.
And in such circumstances, Russian suppliers can, excuse me, wait.
The timing here should be of concern to the consumer rather than the supplier - so let the Europeans decide.
It is more important for them.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.