The past weekend was particularly deadly for the Syrian army and regime in Deir Ezzor province in eastern Syria.
A general and four soldiers were killed on Sunday when a bomb exploded as their vehicle passed by, the day after 13 pro-regime fighters were killed in an ambush by jihadists the Islamic State (IS) organization. in the desert area of Masrib.
The multiplication of this type of attacks could make believe in a resurgence of the organization in Syria, more than two years after its territorial defeat in March 2019. But according to Wassim Nasr, specialist in jihadist movements at France 24, such an observation would be wrong.
"This is not a resurgence, because the group has never ceased its activities in Syria, where its actions have been crescendoing for several months, especially in the province of Deir Ezzor," he explains.
"The organization has managed to restructure itself in the Badiya desert, west of the Euphrates, which stretches from the province of Homs to that of Deir Ezzor, on the border with Iraq, and to that of Daraa in the south, making this immense territory not a zone of control, but a zone of very deadly activity for the Syrian army. "
But it is also a fallback ground, he adds, especially after the territorial defeat of 2019. “In this, this stronghold, which generates income thanks for example to racketeering, is comparable to the one it had in the al-Anbar region in Iraq, between 2009 and 2011. "
Almost daily attacks
A sign that IS has never really disappeared from the Syrian equation despite the fall of its "caliphate", the organization has inflicted enormous losses on President Bashar al-Assad's regime since March 2019.
According to a count by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (OSDH), a UK-based NGO with a large network of sources in Syria, nearly 1,600 members of Damascus forces or allied groups were killed in various attacks, bombings and ambushes claimed or attributed to ISIS.
#Syria the # EI claims an ambush against the pro-regime militias of the Sunni Chouaïtat clan in the badiya of # Deïrezzore pic.twitter.com/sxuPqU3jwg
- Wassim Nasr (@SimNasr) November 17, 2021
"There is almost every day at least one attack, explosion, ambush against the Syrian army, groups affiliated with the regime or Russian soldiers," insists Wassim Nasr, "although it is very rare that these actions, carried out in what has become their rear base, are claimed by ISIS, which wants to avoid drawing too much attention. "
The group even carried out, on November 8, an attack in the province of Daraa, in southern Syria, when there had been no notable action since 2019. "ISIS blew up a vehicle of the Syrian army, precisely of the 5th brigade which is trained by the Russians, which circulated on a road between Cheikh Maskin and Izra, and filmed the attack for purposes of propaganda ", notes Wassim Nasr.
"This demonstrates the singularity and importance of this attack in the eyes of the organization which claimed responsibility for it on November 14 and which thus sends a message on its ability to strike near the road between Daraa and Damascus."
A capacity to coordinate and organize complex attacks
To reaffirm its presence, ISIS is taking great advantage of the fact that the country remains fragmented despite the regimes taking over most of the territory, thanks to its Russian and Iranian allies. In addition to the Syrian troops, the group also has in its sights the Kurdish forces which control the northeast of the country, with, according to the Washington Post, the support of 900 American soldiers maintained in this area by the Biden administration.
"Even if they cannot carry out in the zone located to the east of the Euphrates, held by the Kurdish forces, the same type of actions as those targeting the Syrian troops in the Badiya, in particular because of the means to Americans' disposition in terms of drones and intelligence which are incomparable with Russian capabilities, ISIS jihadists are carrying out increasingly complex operations in this territory, "underlines Wassim Nasr.
"A few days ago, they carried out nine coordinated attacks against Kurdish posts of the People's Protection Units (YPG) in Deir Ezzor province, this is an important indicator of a capacity for coordination and organization of 'complex attacks. This means that they have the logistics and the men to do it and then go underground, which is different from planting a bomb and evacuating the scene of an attack, "he adds. he.
Besides the Kurds, IS is also attacking Islamist groups in the Idlib region, the last rebel stronghold controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS, Levant Liberation Organization). "What is interesting in this region is that the IS, which adapts to the terrain and to its targets depending on the areas in Syria, still has cells that attack HTS as a priority and harshly", decrypts Wassim Nasr. "His goal is to destabilize this sworn enemy he accuses of apostasy and to try to recruit the disappointed into the ranks of HTS, especially its foreign fighters."
From Deraa to Deir Ezzor, via the Kurdish-controlled areas and the rebel stronghold of Idleb, the IS jihadists, who are also still present and active in Iraq, demonstrate week after week their ability to strike deeply on several points of Syrian territory.
"They can still strike all over Syria, where they have succeeded in recreating the web they had woven in Iraq and which has allowed them to survive until now," concludes Wassim Nasr.
"Their objective is to survive the military pressure exerted on ISIS, so that once this pressure weakens or subsides, for example if the Americans leave, they can come back in force."
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