Institutions of the post-global world

As, in principle, it was expected, towards the end of last week, which only we had for known reasons was inoperative, the countries included in the OPEC + agreement (and the Russian Federation, of course, including), almost defiantly began to satisfy the demand of US President Joe Biden to accelerate the recovery of oil production. And this instantly became the main not only economic, but also, judging by the latest publications in the same The New York Times, a political topic of discussion about the future of the global world order. And this, I must admit, is also not surprising, especially if you pay attention to how the refusal was issued.

However, let's go in order. Immediately before the meeting at the ministerial level of the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement (Russia is already represented there by the profile Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak), Joe Biden turned to the participating countries, in fact, he directly accused the states that are members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and also the Russian Federation, in a sharp rise in world oil prices. And he urged them to immediately increase oil production so that it would be comfortable for the American economy and, most importantly, for buyers of gasoline at American gas stations. On whom, oddly enough, a lot still depends, at least in public American politics: they are not only local inhabitants, but also American voters.

And the midterm elections in the United States of America are already close enough, they generally elect someone all the time.

Moreover, the American oilmen themselves, obviously happy with what is happening with world prices, are, moreover, a traditionally “republican” audience that is completely uninteresting to democrats.

So the Saudis and Russians were ordered to immediately increase production, and in a rather categorical manner.

The answer, as they say, was not long in coming.

At a meeting held last Thursday, the OPEC + alliance, as, in general, all self-respecting experts were supposed to, decided to adhere to the previously agreed plan for the monthly increase in oil production.

Having announced that in December, which is already approaching, it will also increase it by no more than 400 thousand barrels per day, agreed and distributed according to quotas.

What can I say here?

This decision, it seems, did not come as a surprise not only to the markets, but also to the American president himself.

And now we will try to explain why.

In fact, everything is extremely simple.

The strategy chosen by the participating countries, implemented by the basic players of OPEC + against the background of the global economic recovery after the crisis of overproduction that brought down the oil markets shortly before the pandemic, and the concomitant crisis associated directly with the COVID-19 pandemic itself, is extremely complex, requiring almost constant manual control , consensus with different (sometimes not the most attractive) political regimes.

And at the same time it does have one, but quite obvious and very important advantage: it, you know, works.

Simply in fact, this has already been proven by practice right and right now.

And hardly anyone of the parties to this agreement, given such a state of affairs in global markets, has a desire to fall into fornication and break this mechanism, even if it is slipping from time to time, but quite properly working mechanism.

Even if the President of the United States personally asks about it.

Moreover, according to the sources of the American Bloomberg agency (those are still truth-lovers, of course, but in the absence of a stamp we write on whatever we have to), the United States asked OPEC + for nothing less, and actually doubling the volume of increasing black gold production: from 0.4 million up to 0.8 million barrels per day.

Which would certainly seriously imbalance global markets.

And, by the way, none of the significant players has the slightest doubt that London and New York stock speculators would help this fascinating process of drawing oil prices into a wide variety of volatilities or even rallies with great pleasure.

And it is no coincidence that the OPEC + participants so sarcastically advised to draw the attention of the complainants to other energy markets, primarily to gas.

Where there is no "gas OPEC" of its own, let alone its "gas OPEC +".

And where now, in many respects through the efforts of these bright people, who were doing their best to erase the "oil formula" and introduce "advanced market mechanisms" in the spot markets, there is such an absolutely amazing disagreement.

Or, as OPEC + politely put it, "extreme volatility and instability."

And this example is right before the eyes of the parties to the agreement.

And this is exactly the experience that no one of the oil-producing countries has any desire to study from the word “absolutely”.

But only when did it stop someone before?

Especially if this "someone" was on the other side of the ocean, as well as "on the right side of history."

And in general, on the side of the forces of good.

Under other external circumstances, it would not have stopped, apparently, even now: disputes of this kind have happened in the history of oil production before.

Some are so even in our memory.

But this time (there is such a feeling) even Biden himself made his speech, not really hoping that they would certainly listen to him.

He simply said what the person in the office of the President of the United States should have said in this case.

This is his job.

That's all.

Well, the representatives - let's call a spade a spade - of the OPEC + cartel, in turn, in their turn politely stressed that the oil market is managed by carefully coordinating the volume of oil production with growing demand.

Moreover, according to OPEC +, the oil producing countries are now nothing more and nothing less than the "custodians" of this sector of the global energy market, who monitor the supply match with demand and intend, sorry, and further, despite America's wishes, continue in the same spirit.

And this is such a fundamentally different picture of the world that, being responsible people, we simply cannot ignore it and accept it as a new reality that is forming before our eyes.

Simply because in the person of OPEC +, we do not exclude, we see a prototype of the work of coordinating supranational institutions of a new, post-global and already definitely not unipolar world.

Just who told you that the new "centers of power" in this wonderful new world will be determined solely on a regional basis?

With a certain coincidence of interests of the participants (up to a consensus, by the way), they may well be built in such an unusual way - on the basis of completely traditional structures, but reformatted by the crisis to fit the new reality.

And this experience, no doubt, in the very near future, all interested parties will have to study the most carefully.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.