Here we go again ?

France does not seem to be spared by the resumption of the Coronavirus epidemic which has already reached a good part of Europe in recent weeks.

On Thursday, Public Health France recorded 9,502 new cases and a positivity rate of 2.2% over the last seven days.

A week earlier this rate, which measures the proportion of cases among those tested, was only 1.8%.

“All regions are affected,” summarizes Patrick Rolland, from the regional directorate of the national public health agency.

This recovery started last month, as evidenced by other indicators.

The week of October 25, the incidence rate, which reports the number of new cases to the entire population, was already up 12% compared to the previous week.

"This incidence rate is on the rise for the third consecutive week", specifies Nicolas Methy, epidemiologist at Public Health France.

The epidemic resumption "was foreseeable"

Another key indicator: the reproduction rate, which measures the average number of secondary cases caused by a single infected person, has also been "above 1" for three weeks, a threshold which marks a relaunch of the epidemic. The mask has also become compulsory again this week in schools in 39 departments where students were able to remove it.

This revival "was predictable" for several reasons, advanced Friday on France 2 Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious diseases department at Tenon hospital.

“Vaccination: it is reaching a limit, we have not refueled.

Winter conditions: less ventilation, more groupings, and lower barrier gestures ”.

In terms of vaccination, France is ahead of many of its neighbors with nearly 75% of its population having received a complete regimen.

But the pace of summer has dropped, with the impression of having now reached a glass ceiling.

The vaccine alone is not enough

This epidemic resumption is therefore not a surprise. "This was to be expected at the start of the school year, given the contagiousness of the delta variant, the vaccine efficacy, which is not enough on its own to contain the epidemic, and incomplete vaccination coverage," said the epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea. The question was rather to predict when this rebound would take place.

It arrives in France later than in other European countries, especially those in Eastern Europe, which are much less vaccinated.

Or even in neighbors to the north, like the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, where the cold arrived earlier, and to a certain extent Germany, less vaccinated.

Thursday the World Health Organization (WHO) was alarmed at the "very worrying" rate of transmission of Covid-19 in Europe, which could lead to half a million additional deaths on the continent by February.

No saturation of French hospitals for the moment

The French situation is not so worrying "for the moment", reassures Mircea Sofonea, because "we now know the levers to act". Among the possible responses are a vaccination that must still be pushed, and the maintenance of barrier gestures: "It is now that it is played", insists the epidemiologist. "If we stay at the current level of circulation of the virus, we can hope that hospital activity will increase without considering saturation", underlines Mircea Sofonea. But "if the reproduction rate continues to increase, there could be situations of tension locally", he adds.

Already, in the rural department of Creuse, the prefecture called on Thursday not to relax efforts on the 3rd dose of vaccine and barrier gestures, after an outbreak of Covid-19 cases which could be linked to the holding of several festive events for retirees.

In Bordeaux, an epidemic focus was detected within the St-André hospital of the CHU, a cluster which concerns 16 health professionals and 9 patients.

In this increasingly tense context, a defense council could take place next week.

In the meantime, "this is not the time to let your guard down," Prime Minister Jean Castex said Friday at the Montpellier University Hospital.

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  • Contamination

  • Public health

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  • Europe

  • Coronavirus

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  • Covid 19