Nicolas Beytout 7:57 am, October 20, 2021

Every morning, Nicolas Beytout analyzes political news and gives us his opinion.

This Wednesday, he is interested in the Republicans primary.

According to him, it turns into a beauty contest.

Christian Jacob, the boss of the Republicans party, brought together the six candidates for the primary which will take place in early December this Tuesday morning.

Six which, in the end, should only be five or maybe even four.

In the opinion of several pundits of the party, Denis Payre, the last to arrive in his sixties, would indeed be unable to gather the sponsorships necessary for the validation of his file.

Even Philippe Juvin, the doctor and mayor of Garenne-Colombes, could have difficulties.

We will see, because for the moment, they are all there, in the photo, making pretty smiles (even if we feel them a little tense).

Nothing, in any case, which breaks the joy of Christian Jacob who "congratulated himself on the way the campaign is starting".

We cling a little to the practical organizational modalities and the number of debates, but for the rest, it is quiet.

Does that mean that there is no (or not yet) substantive debate?

That's it. Apart from Denis Payre and his very liberal roots (but he has little chance of being selected), the different candidates are… not very different, precisely. Certainly, Eric Ciotti has his positioning very "Law and order", law and order to use the favorite expression of the American Republicans. It is the candidate of the regal. But the 3 main candidates look alike. Well, Xavier Bertrand is more social and better established in working-class areas and in rural areas. Valérie Pécresse is a little more liberal, more urban and more listened to by executives. And Michel Barnier is more European, has more international stature, more bottle, too, in politics. But on the basis of ideas, we are really very close. Besides, Christian Jacob admits it, probably without wanting to.What was he saying yesterday, at the end of breakfast with friends: "Everyone has their own personality, their sensitivity; each candidate puts forward their strengths, and that's normal". There you have it, not a word on the programs, not an evocation of ideas, projects. No, we are talking about personality-sensitivity. Well, me, when I hear that, I think more of a beauty contest than a fundamental political debate.

And in this case, how will the activists, who will vote in early December, choose?

On criteria of beauty contests: this one is faithful to his party (it is Michel Barnier); this one left us then came back, she is forgiven (it's Valérie Pécresse); this one betrayed us and he did everything to complicate the choice of the party, he will be sanctioned (it is Xavier Bertrand). In the opinion of several observers of the LR party, this is sort of what will serve as a reading grid, and this is what worries the Bertrand camp. To ward off this bad fate, the president of Hauts-de-France makes the tour of the federations at full speed, with a very strong argument: vote for the one who has the most chances, in the polls, of beating Emmanuel Macron. This is his best slogan, his best asset to date. For the rest, the debates will be courteous,people around them should not send names of birds to each other. It is "the spirit of Nîmes", explains a pillar of the Republicans, in reference to this meal of the brave taken on the occasion of parliamentary days, at the beginning of September in Nîmes, where the idea of ​​a vote in Congress had started to settle down. So the primary should go smoothly, more than in 2016, in any case ...

At the time, the fight between the candidates had been fierce.

It must be said that the plateau was otherwise raised.

It is not insulting the current candidates to say that there is this year neither former head of state, nor former Prime Minister as were respectively Nicolas Sarkozy, François Fillon or Alain Juppé.

The shock of the personalities had been severe.

It will be softer this time.

Advantage: the search for unity around the winner of the primary on December 4 will be easier.