In Iraq, Iran's pervasive shadow over early legislative elections

Unavoidable.

In Iraq, the shadow of the very intrusive Iranian neighbor hangs over the anticipated legislative elections of October 10.

Openly challenged in the Iraqi street since the protest movement of October 2019 freed the floor, Tehran must now face the discontent of a part of the population ulcerated by its political, economic and military control over their country.

An omnipresence facilitated by its very close links with leading players in Iraqi politics, considered as obligated, including Hachd al-Chaabi, the powerful coalition of armed groups, mainly Shiites, who fought the Islamic State organization and now integrated into the Iraqi state.

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"Iran must, like any foreign country, consider Iraq as a state in its own right, and not as a satellite country, because a part of Iraqi society no longer supports certain abuses and interference deemed harmful in internal affairs of Iraq ", indicates Najm al-Kassab, political scientist and director of the Al-Mawred center for strategic studies in Iraq, interviewed by France 24.

The latter emphasizes: "This anger against Tehran is also noticeable in the central and southern regions of the country which are predominantly Shiite. Resentment is such that some pro-Iranian politicians are now cut off from their base. They are sometimes no longer the leaders. welcome in their constituencies, even within their tribes, as it could still be the case a few years ago ".

"Iran has lost a large part of its Shiite base in the south and the center, when it had long believed that it would retain a loyal base there," confirms Renad Mansour, of the Chatham House think tank, interviewed by AFP.

"Many parties aligned with Iran are finding it more difficult to maintain their popularity."

Anger exacerbated by the repression of the "October revolution"

This anger against the Iranian neighbor is exacerbated by the repression against the "October revolution", particularly bloody in these regions, and which left nearly 600 dead and 30,000 wounded.

A climate of intimidation and violence blamed on the armed factions supported by Iran, designated as the mastermind of the repression against the "October Revolution".

"Iran is allied with Iraqi political and armed actors who impose their will by force and who are not responsible for the actions they take," said Zaïd al-Ali, former UN adviser in Iraq, when questioned by France 24. Many Iraqis have had enough of this role played by Tehran which offers armed groups political protection guaranteeing them impunity in the country. We will see if the elections bring a change, that would be astonishing "

Despite this context which may seem unfavorable to the pro-Iranian camp, these legislative elections are unlikely to change the situation.

In particular because observers fear a record abstention encouraged by numerous calls for a boycott emanating especially from the ranks of resigned protesters.

However, the low participation recorded during the legislative elections of 2018 (officially 44.52% of those registered had voted), had thus allowed the pro-Iranian candidates of Hachd al-Chaabi to access Parliament for the first time.

Political forces that have never hidden the nature of their links with Iran.

"Our relations with the Islamic Republic are not nascent, it is a strategic relationship", admitted in mid-September the outgoing deputy Ahmed Assadi, candidate for Baghdad and one of the leading figures of the parliamentary bloc of Hachd, in an interview. televised.

"There is no submission or alignment. It is a relationship based on the balance between the interests of Iraq and the interests of the Islamic Republic," he assured.

The same goes for Mohamed Mohie, spokesperson for the Hezbollah brigades, a powerful Hachd faction.

"Relations with Iran are in the interest of the Iraqi people and must be strengthened," he told AFP.

"We have never seen any negative interference from the Islamic Republic in the affairs of Iraq."

Weighing in on the negotiations aimed at forming a government

If the favorite of the poll remains the current of Moqtada al-Sadr, ex-militia leader with anti-American and anti-Iranian rhetoric, the forces close to Tehran will certainly make sure to have their say in the negotiations. aimed at forming a government.

Diplomats and observers even fear a spike in violence - if pro-Iran factions, for example, seek to put pressure to ensure acceptable representation in the executive.

Tehran will seek "a Prime Minister with whom it can work, who will be acceptable for its program", estimates Lahib Higel, of the International Crisis Group, quoted by AFP.

“Usually a compromise candidate is not such a bad choice,” she adds.

Such a profile means "a weak prime minister".

Tehran will therefore be able "to work either directly with its services, or at least with other actors around it".

One way to guarantee the maintenance of its stranglehold on its neighbor.

The victory of the ultraconservative Ebrahim Raïssi in the Iranian presidential election on June 18 is already causing the Iraqis to fear a strengthening of the pro-Iranian militias, his profile in terms of foreign policy being much more aggressive than that of the moderate Hassan Rohani.

With AFP

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