Gao Fu and Tong Yigang's team "The Lancet" issued an article stating that-

　　The traceability of the new crown virus will be a "protracted war"

　　◎Reporter Zhang Jiaxing

　　21 months!

Since breaking into human vision in early 2020, "Where did the new crown virus come from" has remained an unsolved mystery.

　　It's difficult to trace the source of the virus, and everyone knows it.

But where is the difficulty?

Can you find the answer if you squeeze your head and look for it?

　　On October 1, Gao Fu's team, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and Tong Yigang's team from Beijing University of Chemical Technology, published an article on the international top journal "The Lancet", reviewing the history of the traceability, and pointed out that the traceability of the new crown virus is a " Protracted war" requires time, international resources and cooperation.

　　"The original intention of the article is to let people know that traceability is not a problem that can be solved all at once. It often takes a long time." Tong Yigang, the Chinese leader of the Animal and Environmental Sciences Group of the Joint Research Expert Group on Traceability, told the Science and Technology Daily reporter that it is not advisable to act too hastily, and it is even more undesirable to refuse cooperation.

　　Is there any successful traceability?

　　Has there been any successful traceability in history?

In other words, has the source of the virus been found?

　　"The word'success' is difficult to accurately describe the results of the traceability." Tong Yigang responded. Taking the well-known HIV virus as an example, it was discovered in the United States in 1981 and the traceability work began immediately. The traceability results in 1986 are considered to be from 1959. Introduced in Africa.

　　This result was accepted for more than 20 years. Until 2008, "Nature" published a direct evidence from Kinshasa, the capital of Zaire, which actually proved that HIV had actually spread among people around 1908.

　　"The source currently believed may be overturned by new evidence." Tong Yigang said. This is why scientists who are really engaged in virus traceability work must always keep an open mind.

　　An open mind means that we must always prudently study and judge and accept new evidence. It is the basis for the truth that drives humanity toward the source of the virus.

　　For example, the timeline of human coronavirus HKU1, which is also a coronavirus, has been led by new evidence and continues to extend. The coronavirus was first discovered in Hong Kong in 2004, and the current cases in humans can be traced forward. To Finland in 1996 and Brazil in 1995.

　　Continuous new evidence has pushed the origin of human coronavirus HKU1 forward 10 years from the date of discovery!

The new coronavirus is likely to have the same "history of human invasion", which needs to be verified by further virus traceability work.

　　In the paper, the team of Academician Gao Fu cited a large number of references to indicate the time points for the tracing of different viruses, each of which demonstrated a series of strong evidence support.

　　"The traceability of the new coronavirus should be the same." Tong Yigang said, using some of the previous resources, such as samples stored in the laboratory, to excavate, only to really advance and approach "success" step by step.

　　May it never be found?

　　Could the source of the new coronavirus be found forever?

　　"The geographic origin of the virus may not depend on the initial patient. In some cases, patient 0 may never be found." Tong Yigang explained that almost all viruses, including HIV, MERS virus, and HKU1 virus, are affected. Traceability studies have shown that the "starting point" of the epidemic is not the source of the virus.

　　In other words, if you only focus on the "starting point", it will be difficult to lead the traceability process forward.

　　"Each advancement requires long-term and extensive sample accumulation." Tong Yigang said, and these samples are "sleeping" in the sample banks of laboratories around the world.

　　In addition to finding clues in human samples, clues in animal samples are also the key to making up the "animal-to-human" step.

　　The source viruses in nature may still multiply in wild animals, and it takes time and even luck for people to find them.

For example, the WIV1 virus carried by the Chinese chrysanthemum bat, which is believed to have originated from SARS, is only highly similar to the SARS virus when found, and is not exactly the same. It still needs further verification after it is found.

　　In summary, may the source of the new coronavirus be never found?

　　The answer to this question depends on two aspects:

　　One is the direction. If you only focus on the "starting point" and reject clues from all over the world, then the source of the new crown virus may never be found.

　　One is in terms of time. If the traceability of the new coronavirus is too short-sighted and hasty, and hopes to complete the task in a short time, for example, only considering sequence similarity and turning a blind eye to other scientific facts, then the conclusions drawn by the traceability of the virus will also be difficult to withstand time. test.

　　How to track the virus?

　　The paper pointed out that, first of all, we must have a full understanding of the "protracted war".

"Virus traceability often takes years or even decades." Tong Yigang said.

　　This is not because scientists are "grinding foreign work", but because there is indeed too much work to be done-

　　Patients with similar symptoms before the pandemic should be re-evaluated and samples should be re-tested;

　　Global blood and tissue banks should conduct retrospective serological or genomics research;

　　Countries or regions where evidence of the virus appeared before the outbreak should conduct an epidemiological investigation of the disease;

　　A comprehensive genome study should be conducted on animal species that are susceptible to virus infection...

　　Obviously, these tasks cannot be done by a single team.

Therefore, the paper emphasizes that open thinking and close international cooperation are essential to trace the origin of any virus.