Well, it seems, finally, by Monday evening, Europe, if not sighing calmly, then at least for a while, exhaled with some relief. All self-respecting European mass media immediately spread the news about the start of filling the first string of Nord Stream 2 with gas by domestic Gazprom. By the way, the readiness of the line was also confirmed yesterday by the Danish Energy Agency, where they said that line B could also be put into operation soon, since Nord Stream 2 AG fulfilled all the conditions, including - attention! - certification of the gas pipeline.
As a result, within the first hour and a half after the publication of the news, blue fuel fell by $ 70 per thousand cubic meters.
And although this is, of course, so far, as they say, volatility on expectations, the European energy markets will still experience some relief.
The only question is - is it too late.
And also - for how long.
And most importantly, whether the added volumes of Russian gas in the future will be enough even for the current approaching and, they say, the expected very cold winter.
Now let's try to explain.
As, in principle, almost all more or less sober and pragmatic, not only Russian, but even Western energy experts predicted, the fascinating process of throwing stones in a European energy house with glass walls begins now and in practice. to a rather natural, albeit very unhappy result.
The energy crisis, which began in Europe as a purely peripheral phenomenon and even, in general, rather ideological (it was necessary to somehow support democracy in the fight against the "totalitarian Russian gas" and if not completely stopped, then at least freeze, tighten construction and commissioning of the Nord Stream gas pipeline 2), is becoming more and more global almost every day, covering more and more backbone sectors of the European economy. And this is not surprising at all for anyone, except for those who continue to feel like exquisite “pink ponies”, but who already look rather idiotic old gray nags and ours, and even more so European adherents of “alternative green energy” and other “global green transition”.
However, all these "political transgenders" are always quite ridiculous in the conditions of the rough, out-of-the-window reality bursting into cozy and seemingly well-protected European offices.
Whatever agenda they only propagandize and promote.
A clown, even if it is a political clown and quite bloody, is still a circus.
But it just so happened that the real market is, unfortunately, not only a virtual digital game.
No stock speculation and "effective financial management", pleasantly flashing colorful charts on the displays.
Where everything can be counted, sometimes even replayed and / or corrected, returned to its original state, or even directed in a different direction, without taking into account the inertia of what is happening.
Everything is harsh and simple right there.
The costs in terms of the energy component of the cost of any product, product and / or service are growing along all links of production chains, and any European product is extremely energy-intensive.
That, of course, albeit with some delay, cannot but affect the market prices for the very goods, products and services.
In the end, for everything, for all the costs, for all the difficulties of the manufacturer and intermediaries, it has been customary since ancient times, it is not just anyone who pays, namely the consumer.
Citizen, proletarian, office worker, ordinary burgher.
With the existing socio-political formation, this is, alas, inevitable.
And you might think we don't understand this from our own wallets.
And in this kind of situation, it is ridiculous to complain about fate or "force majeure circumstances."
Moreover, this very crisis, unfolding directly and directly before our eyes, is completely man-made, its authors can be called almost by name.
And now this funnel, if you do not urgently try to "stop" it, making the process at least simply manageable, will only grow: alas, the gas crisis has in fact become just a trigger for much more global processes.
And this, excuse me, is somehow completely stupid not to understand.
However, let's go in order.
The fact that against the backdrop of the recovery of the world economy after the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, global markets are likely to face an energy shortage and, accordingly, a serious increase in prices caused by it, including for blue fuel, was understood by all interested players.
In the same way, by the way, as everyone perfectly understood that the main movement would most likely begin in the premium markets of Southeast Asia, which, due to some regional peculiarities, stupidly not only fall faster, but also recover faster from shocks, - also to me, open secret.
And with Russia as a strategic supplier of pipeline gas to Europe, no matter how much you blame it, this is a gas price rally, which is now taking place not only on the old continent, if it is somehow connected, it is rather indirect.
Just as an example: in the United States, which are themselves an LNG supplier and whose markets are not at all connected with supplies from the Russian Federation, and then gas prices for households have more than doubled over the past year - thank God, neither Russia nor So far, no one blames Putin personally for this.
But they could.
Nevertheless, the Americans, unlike the Europeans, were able to somehow prepare for what was happening.
In Europe, now everything is much softer, more alarming and more fun.
At least, gas prices on the spot markets in the Old World continue to break more and more records, and $ 1400 per thousand cubic meters here, apparently, is far from the limit.
And it is already clear that this is by no means a random speculative fluctuation, but, alas, an already obvious price trend.
Which will last exactly as long as the markets are not reformatted again and are not balanced at some general price level.
And forgive the innate distrust of the author, but I do not believe that with such a level of information availability and quite obvious trends, it was impossible to prepare in advance for the current crisis.
And in fact, those who needed it, apparently, more or less prepared for it. And the countries of the northwestern industrial cluster, including Germany and Austria, and Turkey, and a number of countries of the Balkan Peninsula, and (quite recently, by the way) Hungary solved this problem in a rather simple and radical way - by signing long contracts with Russian Gazprom in advance. Who, as you know, fulfills these contracts impeccably. And these contracts, as a rule, are focused not on prices on the so-called spot, but in fact on the exchange market. And on the so-called oil price formula.
And this, of course, does not mean that turbulence in the energy markets will not affect either Hungary or the Baltic industrial cluster: it will, of course. And even us in Russia, of course, will also affect, although to a lesser extent than even the prudent part of Europeans. And through direct spot prices on energy markets (you still cannot provide for the entire required volume of long contracts - you will have to buy something in addition). And indirectly, through the rise in prices for the same consumer goods. Or for other energy sources: the price of coal in Europe is also breaking records as much as 13 years ago and will only grow further, we wrote about this not so long ago. It's just that it will be volatility, at least predictable and predictable. And the stability of the price of Russian pipeline gas will be a kind of damper here, which, in general, is the reason for the calculation.
By the way, what is most interesting here: even the earliest certification and commissioning of the recently completed "in iron" gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 is unlikely to correct the situation until the end - if it only quenches it a little, and then for a historically short period of time. The gas deficit on European markets now obviously exceeds the capabilities of the Russian-European gas pipeline falling under the Third Energy Package. Meanwhile, the price trend for LNG in the world is quite obvious, while domestic production is falling. And all this against the background of the already launched process of almost simultaneous cutting of both coal-fired generation and nuclear power plants in connection with the beginning of the global energy transition - well, yes, this process will certainly be very interesting to watch. But it is desirable not to be inside this madness, but from somewhere from the side.
However, the times of turbulence will end sooner or later.
As a rule, they end after some new balance has been achieved - in our case, I am sure, the balance is precisely the energy one: from where everything, as they say, began.
And if to the point of entry into the "band of energy turbulence" our country, it seems, turned out to be even better than others (it's not surprising: we are here, excuse the slang, as they say, at the distribution), then there is no clarity with the "exit point" ...
Simply because no one yet knows what it will be like, this very “new energy balance”.
And this is the "exit point", by the way.
Well, it also happens, these are interesting, albeit a bit troubling times for us to live.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.