The elections in the FRG are over, the votes have been counted. We almost know who the new chancellor will be, but only almost. Let me remind you that Germany is a parliamentary republic. If a party gets more than half of the votes in the elections, its leader becomes the head of state and it forms the government. And since this did not happen, the negotiation process is launched, the forces that have entered the parliament form coalitions - and then whose will prevail. Therefore, here, as one well-known radio host says, we will observe.

But if you compare the results of these elections with all the previous ones, you can definitely see that times have changed. 1980: Christian Democrats 44%, Social Democrats 42%. 1990: CDU - 43%, SPD - 33%. 1998th, Schroeder's triumph: 40% for the SPD, 35% for the CDU / CSU. 2002, a stalemate: both parties had exactly 38.5% each, Schroeder went along the edge. The Titans fought on the summits of Olympus, and the rest of the small parties watched what was happening from somewhere below, from the very border of the five percent barrier.

In 2021, the CDU is gaining 24%, showing the worst result in its history.

The SPD wins with 25.7% - before with this it would hardly have made it to the final, but the Greens are gaining a fabulous 14.8% for them, and Alternative for Germany, which is participating in the federal elections for the second time, - 10.3%.

The balance of power is changing.

A little more, and the old players will leave the stage.

Depicting Mikhalkov's voice, we ask in a whisper: "How did it happen?"

The defeat of the black and red

Merkel did a lot to make what has happened now to happen. And if she had not left in this cycle, then, quite possibly, the Christian Democrats would have lost even to the Greens. All the fruits of her rather bravura beginning of government with the growth of the economy and high hopes were buried at the end: obvious things like the migration crisis, covid restrictions and corruption scandals and non-obvious ones, for example, the position on same-sex marriage. For the first decade in the chair of Chancellor, Merkel blocked all initiatives related to their legalization, but then “broke down”. And the point is not in the homophobia of the Germans, but rather in the fact that the conservative Christian Democrats by the end gave up all their key positions. And of course, the new leader Armin Laschet did not help them - a typical European bureaucrat, a member of the European Parliament since 1999, laughing like a horse,during the German floods (apparently did not know that he was being filmed). SPD leader Olaf Scholz, former burgomaster of Hamburg and vice-chancellor, who did not change Germany to Brussels, looked much more advantageous against his background.

The Social Democrats are celebrating a victory, but this victory, let's be honest, is very pale: they did not even reach 30%. In 2017, at the last elections, they were literally forced to cooperate with Merkel: otherwise, the ruling coalition simply did not take shape. The SPD strategists would prefer to be the opposition in order to enter the Bundestag on a white horse in 2021: they say, we told you that your Merkel is evil. But in the end, these four years they ruled the country together with Frau Chancellor, and responsibility for the mess of recent years - from migrants to floods - lies with them.

The main problem is that over the past 15 years, the CDU and the SPD have mixed to the point of being completely indistinguishable.

Socialists seem to be for the welfare state - but Schroeder launched a reduction in benefits and toughening requirements for their recipients, and Merkel, on the contrary, handed them out to the right and left.

Conservative Christian Democrats should seem to be in favor of entrepreneurship - but under Merkel, several high-profile scandals shattered the backbone of the auto industry, and an almost year-long lockdown slammed small business.

And finally, a party that has the word "Christian" in its name can in no way advocate the uncontrolled entry of migrants from Muslim countries.

The 26% who chose the socialists did it rather out of inertia - because there is no guarantee that Scholz will do something that Laschet would not have done, and vice versa.

Triumph of the Greens

Almost 15% for a party that in the past barely climbed the 5% barrier is a fabulous and seemingly inexplicable result.

German colleagues joke with might and main that the leader of the Greens, Annalena Berbock, knows only three problems in Germany: climate, climate and climate.

The world is shaken by wars, the pandemic and the migration crisis do not think to go anywhere, crime in the country has multiplied - but will we save sea seals and worry about the planet's “green lungs”?

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In fact, the whole trick of the party is that its choice is disguised as apolitical, being the most political of all.

The German voter is at a loss.

He no longer understands where the right is, where the left is and who will defend his interests.

And in such a situation, the simplest choice is to vote "for good, against bad."

Let unpleasant people do their dirty political affairs, and we will save the planet.

At the same time, the Greens have a political program, and it is more vigorous than any manifesto of the most hardened Marxists.

There are “open doors” for migrants, and LGBT rights with 150 genders, and draconian measures in relation to business, but all this goes, as it were, to the environmental agenda, in small print at the bottom of the page.

As she left, Merkel warned against the return of the leftists, referring to Die Linke, the successors of the Communist Party of the GDR.

But they barely made it to parliament, but fighters for the rights of bunnies and squirrels raised the scarlet banner and now proudly carry it to the Bundestag.

Who will rule Germany?

Now before the eyes of the ideologues of the parties that have passed to parliament - a constructor, from the multi-colored bricks of which one can build the most whimsical alliances.

A “grand coalition” is possible, as in the previous cycle: the CDU is uniting with the SPD.

There is an option "Kenya" (according to the colors of the flag of the corresponding state): the red SPD, plus the black CDU, plus the Greens.

Instead of "Greens" there can be yellow ones - liberals, then the flag will look like a German one.

There is a "traffic light" option: red, green, yellow, the CDU then generally remains on the bench.

At the time of this writing, Red leader Olaf Scholz was leaning towards this option.

There is no option to do without socialists.

Nobody is considering the coalition with the Alternative for Germany (in which the CDU, having united with the liberals, could take a majority): since the last cycle, it is customary to pretend that the third largest party in parliament does not exist, since they are "fascists" ...

Is this bad for Russia?

Yes.

Let me remind you that Alternative for Germany is the only party whose program stipulates the lifting of sanctions.

The SPD's position on Nord Stream 2 is quite loyal, but the liberals are sharply opposed, while the Greens are generally a disaster for any energy sector.

No matter how the coalition develops, the ecological party will get the role of Königmacher, the “kingmaker” in it - its voice will be decisive.

And this is the most disturbing news for us from the fields of German politics.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.