• Jean-Luc Mélenchon, rebellious candidate in the 2022 presidential election, and Eric Zemmour, who casts doubt on a possible candidacy, debated Thursday evening on BFMTV.

  • Eric Zemmour affirmed that there would be 2 million additional immigrants in France at the end of the mandate of Emmanuel Macron.

    The polemicist also estimated social fraud in France at 50 billion euros.

  • Are these figures correct?

    20 Minutes

    takes stock.

During the confrontation between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eric Zemmour on BFMTV Thursday evening, a subject inevitably occupied a good part of the discussions.

To support his anti-immigration theses, the polemicist assured him: "At the end of Emmanuel Macron's mandate, there will be two million legal immigrants who will have returned" to France.

Later in the debate, it was social issues that were addressed by the two men.

For Eric Zemmour, social fraud is estimated at 50 billion euros each year.

Where do these numbers come from? 

20 Minutes

fact-checked these two statements by Eric Zemmour.

FAKE OFF

As our colleagues from BFMTV noted during the debate, the number of additional people welcomed in France over the past five years is overestimated by the polemicist.

Above all, it does not take departures into account.

"This is what allows Eric Zemmour to create confusion", explains

 demographer Hervé Le Bras

to

20 Minutes

.

The number of new residence permits issued by France should reach around 1.3 million over five years in France.

A figure that does not include foreign students returning to their home university, expatriates returning home or posted workers who have finished their contracts.

Data which crosses the figures established by INSEE from the census. According to them, France welcomes around 270,000 additional foreigners each year. On the scale of the five years of Emmanuel Macron's mandate, the number of foreigners arriving in France should be below 1.5 million foreigners admitted. Here again, it does not take into account departures, which should, according to INSEE be around 200,000 in five years - the data for recent years are not yet known. In his remarks, Eric Zemmour therefore approximately doubled the number of foreigners actually received in France during the mandate of the President of the Republic.

Hervé Le Bars adds: “More than half of the arrivals do not come from the countries implied by Eric Zemmour, namely Africa and more particularly the Muslim countries.

You have to divide the figures by about two ”.

In 2019, 31.9% of arrivals come from Europe, and 41% from Africa, as shown in the table below:

Social fraud: a thousand miles from official figures

On the issue of social fraud, Eric Zemmour said that it was "assessed by magistrate Charles Prats at 50 billion euros".

Except that the magistrate's estimates have already been pinned down for their inaccuracy, as

Liberation

pointed out 

.

The estimates published by the Court of Auditors in September 2020 at the request of the Social Affairs Committee in the Senate are much lower.

“In 2019, the main social organizations detected 1 billion euros in losses suffered and avoided in the context of the fight against fraud.

"

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Politics

Presidential 2022: Islam, nuclear power, social divide… Tense debate between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eric Zemmour

  • Fake off

  • Fraud

  • Social fraud

  • Debate

  • Immigration

  • Eric Zemmour

  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon