In the coming days, the presidents of the United States and France will hold a telephone conversation, which will become perhaps the most difficult for the leaders of the two countries in the entire history of relations between the leading powers of the West, who knew their ups and downs after World War II.
The fact that the head of the White House will urgently call the Elysee Palace was announced last Sunday by the representative of the French government Gabriel Attal.
The topic of men's conversation between Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron will be the news that blew up the information space about the creation of a trilateral partnership in the field of security of Australia, Great Britain and the United States - a kind of terra incognita of world politics or a new geopolitical UFO called AUKUS.
The point is not only that France, which since the time of General de Gaulle, has been claiming the role of an independent center of power, whose voice remains one of the decisive ones in all world affairs, has found itself behind the side of this triple alliance.
In addition to hitting the image of a great power, AUKUS knocked down the French military-industrial complex, whose products are highly valued in the global arms market.
The signed tripartite agreement between Canberra, Washington and London provides for the equipping of the Australian Navy with American and British nuclear submarines, as well as the re-equipment of the country's armed forces with American cruise missiles.
In this regard, Australia broke the "contract of the century" with the French company Naval Group for the purchase of 12 Barracuda-class attack submarines worth € 56 billion.
The latest statements by the Australian leadership sound simply murderous for Paris, further increasing its worldwide humiliation: upon closer examination, the French submarines turned out to be not at all what Australia needs.
In the face of confrontation with China in the Indo-Pacific region, the Navy of this country requires weapons of a different class, more serious than the French - American and British.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison spoke about this at the end of last week openly, urging Paris to pull itself together and come to terms with the fact that its military-industrial complex simply lost in the competition to Washington and London.
Indeed, in any competition in the market, there are always winners and losers.
“Of course, this caused great disappointment to the French government, and I understand this disappointment.
But at the same time, Australia, like any sovereign country, must make decisions that meet the interests of its national security, ”explained Prime Minister Morrison.
According to him, the point is not at all in some kind of anti-French conspiracy of Western partners, which is not even in sight, but in the fact that Barracuda class boats, by their characteristics, can no longer be considered as an effective weapon, the purchase of which requires tens of billions.
In general, the French submarines in the defense strategy of Canberra were and sailed away.
Rather, they surfaced as the subject of a grand scandal.
Australia will now have American and British submarines.
This decision cannot be replayed, and it will be implemented quickly enough, without many years of buildup.
Answering the question whether there are already negotiations on the purchase or lease of operating American or British nuclear submarines, Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton said: “In short, yes.
I have already met with a number of colleagues, including those who make such decisions. "
The French side, which had recalled its ambassadors from Canberra and Washington (an unprecedented demarche in bilateral relations), flew into a rage.
Diplomatic expressions are not chosen, declaring "betrayal", "crime" and warning that this story will not get away with the culprit in the scandal.
In general, do not spit, AUKUS, into the French well and remember that as it comes around, it will respond.
In Paris, they already started talking about the time to think about starting a revision of the entire defense strategy of NATO, moreover, at the next summit of the alliance in Madrid.
The NATO brain, whose death was previously announced by President Macron, has to be urgently tried to revive.
In a situation where Washington and Paris seem to be balancing on the edge of an abyss and the ground is treacherously crumbling under their feet, the main question arises: "How far can this go and will this story not become the beginning of the end of allied relations within the Euro-Atlantic community?"
Let us take the liberty of asserting that the supporters of a radical scenario and the collapse of Euro-Atlantic institutions, of which there are many in Russia, will be greatly disappointed.
NATO, even with a dead brain, will not go anywhere.
At the same time, American-French relations have received serious burns before, but their skin has demonstrated the ability to regenerate.
One of the worst burns was the 2003 war in Iraq.
Together with Vladimir Putin and Gerhard Schroeder, French President Jacques Chirac, who opposed the American operation, did not shake hands for the American president.
Soon after the outbreak of the war in Iraq, I had the opportunity to interview the famous American political strategist Dick Morris, who was visiting Moscow, and who at one time worked with Bill Clinton. And this is what he said then about France and its leader (I pass his statement word for word): “Ten years will pass before George W. Bush decides to call Jacques Chirac. I do not think that the American government or the American people in the next decade will have any regard for what is being said in France. I don't think this is an important country. It is a weak country, a country of defeatists, which held out for six weeks in the Second World War. "
Strictly speaking, relations between Presidents Bush and Chirac deteriorated even before the war in Iraq.
The American media wrote that during NATO summits, Chirac was often late for meetings and allegedly even defiantly leafed through color magazines with beauties in front of the disgruntled Bush.
It is impossible to verify whether this is true or not.
However, answering a question about his attitude towards the French leader in June 2003, after France did not join the American "coalition of will" created to overthrow Saddam Hussein, in an interview with the American television company NBC, George Bush, throwing away diplomatic politeness, spoke about Jacquet Chirac is very frank: "I doubt that he will come to my ranch anytime soon."
Then, too, it seemed that Washington and Paris parted for a very long time.
However, it did not take ten years for their reconciliation or its appearance: everything happened much earlier.
In the same 2003, Bush and Chirac talked on the phone twice.
Dick Morris was not mistaken: it was Chirac who called Bush, and not vice versa, but still the conversation took place.
For the second time, demonstrating his readiness for reconciliation, Chirac informed Bush in detail about the preparations for the G8 summit in Evian, France.
And then French Defense Minister Michelle Alliot-Marie said that her country would be glad to see George W. Bush, despite his harsh statements about France: “We will gladly receive President Bush in Evian.
He responded to the invitation of our president, and I think that then he will appreciate the French wines. "
History repeats itself, and the current scandal with submarines after some time will lose its sharpness.
Perhaps this will happen sooner than anyone expects, including in Russia, rubbing their hands rather and saying: “Well, finally we got into a fight.
Serves them all right. "
Of course, it would be wrong to treat this story as an operetta story, in which the principle “darlings scold - only amuse themselves” is in effect.
America and France have not been nice to each other for a long time.
That's for sure.
As not nice to each other, France and Great Britain, whose behavior in Paris was called "opportunistic."
And obviously they do not amuse themselves when they scold.
And they quarrel, and seriously.
But all the same, the states that turned out to be involved in the scandal with submarines, embedded or embedded in the structures and mechanisms of the Euro-Atlantic community, will still remain on one side of the barricades.
They will be forced to demonstrate the strength of a marriage in which love has been gone for a long time.
It was so during the war in Iraq, and it will be so now.
Moreover, China and Russia remain on the other side of the barricades, and the containment of which will soon be remembered again as the main task.
So it may soon turn out that AUKUS will backfire on the wrong people.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.