Afghanistan 2021, a different look

The overwhelming majority of analysts and political scientists agree that on the eve of the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which killed more than 3 thousand Americans and citizens of 91 countries, the United States “shamefully fled” from Afghanistan, where it entered 20 years ago with the aim of “ to punish those responsible for the attack on the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon by the terrorists of Al-Qaeda ** and the Taliban * and establish "democratic order" there.

Outwardly, the seemingly so-called withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan really looked like an escape, and in its most shameful form. The whole world was bypassed by video frames, as it were in a hurry, abandoned by the Americans military equipment and ammunition (including aircraft, armored vehicles and various types of weapons and ammunition) for a total amount exceeding $ 90 billion, and most importantly - left by them there to fend for themselves (or rather, at the mercy of the Taliban ») Compatriots, allies and a huge army of Afghans who collaborated with the Americans.

Based on the experience I have accumulated in the state security agencies in intelligence and operational work to counter foreign intelligence services - both through intelligence and counterintelligence, - the experience of my communication as head of the State Security Service of Georgia with representatives of intelligence agencies of NATO countries, and also my own idea of ​​the state of affairs in Afghanistan, where in 1980-1981 I happened to be on a "business trip" as part of the special unit of illegal intelligence of the KGB of the USSR "Cascade" in the "homeland" of the Taliban, in Kandahar, I would like to present my version of in this regard, somewhat different from those that have dominated recently not only in Russian, but also in the world media.

Before I formulate my vision of what is happening here, I believe it is necessary to pay attention to four main messages, which, in my opinion, will help to understand what actually happened with the "flight" of the Americans from Afghanistan.

First.

The opinion about the Americans, including their special services, as acting is often somewhat primitive, straightforward and even rude, corresponds to the truth only partially.

This behavior, in my opinion, is due to part of the strategy of highly professional special services, which accurately analyze the situation and, where they need it, are able to “play for a long time”. First of all, this applies to the CIA and the NSA. (If this were not so, the United States would not have been able to drag us into the war in Afghanistan in 1979, and even more so would not have been able to "help" us in the collapse of the Soviet Union, in accordance with the strategic plan adopted by them back in 1945). Without such an approach to assessing the work of the American special services and the US leadership as a whole, sometimes it is impossible to understand the logic of their actions both in the international arena and within our country, which we have clearly encountered recently.

Second.

The indisputable fact of the pragmatism of the Americans in everything and everywhere, including and above all in the actions of the special services, is well known.

They know how to count and calculate to the smallest detail everything and everything they need to achieve their goal.

At the same time, they are practically not limited either in means or in methods of implementing the plans.

Third.

The United States has become accustomed to the sole leadership in the world, especially over the past 30 years, and constantly, demonstratively, and often cynically disregard not only world public opinion (which has long meant nothing to them), but also decisions of international organizations, including resolutions UN.

Fourth.

At the same time, despite all its power and not all of its strengths listed here, the United States has repeatedly demonstrated the most shameful failures that do not correspond to their claims to world domination, both in foreign and domestic policy, and in the course of illegal hostilities on the territory foreign states (Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Syria ...).

And what is remarkable, these failures, in fact, never carried fatal consequences for them.

And now, through the prism of the four features of the political reality of the United States I have listed, let's try to look at what is happening in Afghanistan.

After 10-15 years of staying in Afghanistan, the Americans began to calculate possible options for leaving the country with the greatest benefit for themselves in the long term.

The best option, which fits perfectly into the theory of "controlled chaos", which in fact has long become an event management strategy for the United States, they considered the one that today everyone calls "shameful flight."

"Flight", which can "justify" (and later blame specific "incompetent" persons) the actual transfer of weapons, equipment and aircraft in an amount twice the annual military budget of nuclear Russia, to its enemy "Taliban", the war with which The Americans have been conducting the last 20 years, for me, of course, it was a premeditated action.

And it is designed to turn Afghanistan into a "United Afghan Emirates" in the near future (since the creation of a single centralized Afghan state at this stage is unlikely), and later into a springboard - primarily for ISIS ***. It is difficult to predict whether terrorist organizations, which will begin to "cluster" there, will be able to coexist without bloody competition, but in the actions of the United States, the idea of ​​implementing in Afghanistan what did not work out in Syria is clearly visible. At least, colleagues from the CIA, the State Department and the Pentagon did everything possible for this, and then - "as it goes". In any case, no one will scold them for their failure - they will be instructed to look for other paths prescribed in the not-for-night theory of "controlled chaos".

I think the question is: "Why do the Americans need this?" will not arise for anyone except those who are still able to discern the "beacon of democracy" in the United States and are ready to follow them in their wake, even if the raging waves of obvious changes taking place in the "family" of the collective West, like the ninth wave of Aivazovsky, will blow a ship called the United States of North America, and the survivors on the raft will be nailed to the harbor called the "terminal." I am sure that it is not worth looking back at such "democrats" and wasting time on polemics with them.

I think that the version of the development of events presented here has a right to exist, and I want to believe that serious political scientists and analysts who follow the events in Afghanistan, of course, understand that everything that is happening now in Afghanistan (even something that does not always go according to plan USA) will in any case be used by them to inflict maximum damage in the short and medium term to Russia and China, which periodically change places in the list of America's "main enemies".

At the same time, due to its geographical location and the factor of the spread of radical Islam in the southern underbelly of Russia, it will have to take on the main burden of neutralizing threats to its own security and the security of its allies in the region.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

** "Al-Qaeda" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.

*** 

"Islamic State" (ISIS, IS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.