Tehran has just sent a message of firmness to the West.
On Tuesday September 14, Iran dismissed Abbas Araghchi, the chief nuclear negotiator, from his ministerial post.
A pragmatic and seasoned diplomat, architect of the 2015 nuclear agreement, Abbas Araghchi was replaced as vice-president of foreign affairs by Ali Bagheri, a former negotiator under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2007 known for his intransigence.
Until now Americans and Europeans negotiated with an Iranian team that they know well and for a long time.
They will now be dealing with Ali Bagheri, a new key figure in Iranian diplomacy who could also be appointed head of the country's nuclear negotiators.
More radical than the radicals
This ultraconservative belongs to "the most radical branch of the radicals", explains Thierry Coville, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
Ali Bagheri, 53, is described as "tougher and less diplomatic" than Iran's new foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who is close to the Revolutionary Guards.
Hostile to any concessions with the West, Ali Bagheri had repeatedly criticized the former Iranian president, the moderate Hassan Rouhani, for having accepted restrictions on the country's nuclear program and for allowing "foreigners" to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access Iranian sites by signing the 2015 international agreement, which put an end to twelve years of crisis around the Iranian nuclear issue.
A close friend of the Supreme Guide
Another peculiarity, Ali Bagheri is part of the close entourage of the Supreme Guide, since his brother is none other than Ali Khamenei's son-in-law.
Close to President Ebrahim Raïssi also, Ali Bagheri was appointed in 2019 as deputy for international affairs of the Judicial Authority by the latter, invested president in August.
His appointment in place of Abbas Araghchi "is not a good sign for the negotiations", analyzes David Rigoulet-Roze, editor-in-chief of the journal Orients Stratégiques and researcher specializing in the Middle East.
It can be interpreted as a sign of firmness, if not of intransigence.
"It is a message from the Iranians to say 'we will not compromise on our national interests'".
Tehran's firmness on ballistics and “sunset clauses”
With this choice, the Supreme Guide confirms that under the Raïssi era, there will be no possibility of widening the discussions on nuclear power to the question of limiting the Iranian ballistic program.
"The Iranians wish to return exclusively to the agreement as it was in 2015", explains David Rigoulet-Roze. The agreement then offered Tehran a reduction in Western and UN sanctions, in exchange for its commitment never to acquire atomic weapons and a drastic reduction in its nuclear program, placed under strict UN control. Iran, however, gradually abandoned most of its commitments after the unilateral withdrawal of the Americans in 2018.
Since Washington's exit from this international pact, another point of tension has resurfaced: that of the famous "sunset clauses" or "twilight clauses". These clauses, included in the nuclear deal, lift certain Iranian obligations according to a specific timetable. Thus, the UN embargo on conventional arms sales to Iran expired in October 2020, despite an attempt by the United States to push the Security Council to extend this blockade. "Other 'sunset clauses' are due to be closed soon, such as the embargo on ballistic components which expires in 2023, or the one on sensitive nuclear technologies [such as centrifuge parts] and the limitation of the number centrifuges,which will lapse in 2025 ", notes David Rigoulet-Roze." However, Tehran does not want these restrictions to be updated in an extended agreement, since the 'sunset clauses' were accepted by all parties in 2015 ".
In a context where the points of tension are multiplying, the arrival of Ali Bagheri at the helm would further complicate negotiations which have remained at a standstill since the election of Ebrahim Raïssi in June and for which no resumption date has been established. been decided yet.
With AFP
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