While the entire world information space is occupied with the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, which served as a trigger for a new phase of the Afghan conflict and the involvement of regional and world powers in it, everyone has forgotten about another country that is next in line for Afghanistan.
We are talking about Iraq.
By the end of 2021, Washington and Baghdad will announce the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, which are there after the invasion of the country in 2003 under the pretext of Saddam Hussein's possession of weapons of mass destruction.
Which, as we know, was not found.
The Iraqi parliament, immediately after the assassination of the commander of the Quds forces, General Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq), decided in January 2020 that US troops should leave Iraq as soon as possible.
Since then, the topic of the complete withdrawal of American troops has become the No. 1 topic on the political agenda of Iraq and Iran behind it.
Iraqi politicians, who have been sitting in the Iranian pocket for a long time, demand that the United States comply with the parliamentary decision and the prompt withdrawal of American troops.
On July 22, 2021, The Wall Street Journal in its exclusive reported that the decision in the White House has finally been made and by the end of 2021 the United States will withdraw its group from Iraq, which currently has 2,500 troops.
As they say, Mr. Biden, yielding to the numerous demands of the Shiite workers, decided to fulfill their dream.
Do you want without the Americans?
Are Americans bad?
Well, get it - sign.
And this is against the backdrop of the ongoing horror in Afghanistan.
But Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazimi himself, who seems to be lobbying for the withdrawal of American troops, is actually more afraid of numerous Iranian proxies and pro-Iranian militias, of which there are more in Iraq than Americans.
America is far away, but Iran is close, and the Iranian geopolitical strategy, called the theocratic "axis of resistance", makes its way to Syria via Iraq.
Iran does not need a strong and independent Iraq, because a strong and independent Iraq can repeat Saddam's scenario with a military attack and eight years of exhausting war, or serve as a springboard for an invasion.
Even if today this scenario seems unrealistic.
Considering the policy of Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kazimi, it seems more realistic that Iraq will do everything to get out of Iran's suffocating tenacious embrace: it will complicate the visa regime and strengthen the borders, will begin to slowly deal with Iranian proxies, which, as a response to the American invasion appeared in Iraq and put down roots in the state security system, will diversify the economy and remove Iraq from the energy dependence, into which it was hooked by the pro-Iranian politicians of the last decade.
The current Prime Minister of Iraq, Mustafa al-Kazimi, whom I have talked about many times in my columns here, became prime minister in May 2020, a few months after the elimination of Soleimani at the Baghdad airport.
During that famous Trump speech and briefing in the White House (Trump, surrounded by the country's main security officials, says that the main enemy of the United States, Qassem Soleimani, has been killed, so there will be no military strike on Iran), al-Kazimi headed Iraqi intelligence.
And when the "chief Iranian strategist", who sometimes held workshops in the "green zone" of Baghdad in the chair of the then Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, left the stage, al-Kazimi headed the government and headed for a soft but decisive struggle against the powerful Iranian presence in the country.
In recent years, the Americans have trained, trained and armed the Iraqi Counter Terrorism Service (ICTS) to leave behind an efficient professional army and security forces capable of repelling both Iranian proxies and the allegedly re-emerging Islamic State * ( IG).
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“We no longer need fighters, because we have them,” Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein explained in an interview with WSJ.
- What we need?
We need intelligence cooperation.
We need help with training.
We need the military to help us in the air. "
The fact that the Biden administration is ready to help from the air and in radical ways was also demonstrated on February 22, 2021 in Syria, when the Americans attacked the positions of the pro-Iranian militant groups, and by air strikes on the positions of the pro-Iranian Kataib Hezbollah and Kataib Sayyid al- Shuhada ”on June 27, 2021 in the area of the borders of Syria and Iraq.
The Pentagon said the strikes were aimed at operational facilities and weapons depots and "the United States has taken necessary, appropriate and deliberate action to limit the risk of escalation and to send a clear message of containment."
On July 25, 2021, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazimi flew from Baghdad to Washington to meet with the US President.
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A year ago, in August 2020, he visited the White House under President Trump, this time to meet with Biden.
This is a good sign for Iraq - a change in the president does not mean a change in the US course towards Iraq.
Tehran is watching all this with great attention.
On the one hand, Iran officially supports al-Kazimi's efforts to withdraw American troops, which the United States has already publicly announced.
This is what the Iranians and their "Iraqi architect" Soleimani were striving for.
On the other hand, Iran is well aware that al-Kazimi, who is not a tame Iranian political actor, does not bode well for the Iranian expansion and that the Iraqi prime minister will most likely try to do something with the Americans to distance Iran as much as possible from participation in domestic politics and squeeze the pro-Iranian militias out of the country's state security system.
Therefore, in early August 2021, the new head of Al-Hashd al-Shaabi, Falih al-Fayyad, was summoned from Iraq to Tehran to meet with the new President Raisi.
And the prepared speech of Raisi was delivered, which was published by the Iranian media.
A kind of telegram to Mustafa al-Kazimi: “The initiative of the authorities to mobilize and create the Popular Mobilization Forces was a smart step that has brought and will continue to bring blessings to the people of Iraq.
This organization provides tremendous support for the development and progress of Iraq in defense against foreign conspiracies, just like in Iran the Basij organization, created thanks to the wisdom of Imam Khomeini. "
In general, the official Iran believes that in Iraq it is like at home, does not consider itself a foreigner in a foreign country and does not intend to leave there.
In July, the activity of the Iranian security services in Iraq increased.
On July 14, 2021, then-Iranian Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alawi arrived in Iraq for a multi-day visit.
He met with the speaker of the parliament al-Halbusi, the very parliament that, I recall, at the beginning of 2020 voted for the immediate withdrawal of American troops, following Tehran's decree.
Alawi also met with his counterpart, Iraqi intelligence minister, and President Barham Saleh.
Bypassing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kazimi.
What does this mean?
About two important things.
1. Iran is preparing to take an active part in the parliamentary elections in Iraq, which will be held in October 2021, and to push as many of its people into parliament as possible, including the movement of the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
2. Iran is preparing for that very X-hour - the beginning of the withdrawal of American troops, in order to push even harder and strengthen the presence of its paramilitary groups in the possible chaos and take the place vacated after the Americans.
Yes, of course, Iraq is not so scattered, weakened and multi-tribal Afghanistan, the current political elite of Iraq is much more responsible and patriotic than the instantly fled Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
But parallels with Afghanistan suggest themselves not only due to the fact that Iraq faces a painful process of American withdrawal and, consequently, the highest risk of chaos in this process: waves of violence, refugees, political crisis and threats to the security of neighbors.
And this is Iran - 1458 km, Syria - 605 km, Saudi Arabia - 814 km, Turkey - 331 km, Kuwait - 242 km, Jordan - 181 km.
But also because Al-Hashd al-Shaabi is the same instrument of Iranian politics and the state interests of the Islamic republic in Iraq, as the Taliban * is an instrument of Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan.
They can be assessed and interpreted in different ways, Iranian President Raisi, for example, believes that the Iranian analogue of Basij in Iraq is a boon for Iraq and brings it peace and security, but someone in Iraq seems to be completely different from this. agrees and seeks all the options for salvation from the obliging Persian love and care.
On August 28, 2021, a conference on cooperation and partnership was held in Baghdad, which was hosted by Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kazimi (who has been reading my columns for a long time, knows that this is one of my favorite politicians in the region).
It was an ambitious task - from the backyard torn apart by the United States and Iran, to once again come to the fore as the once most serious and strong state in the region and become a platform for top-level political negotiations.
Nine states - eight regional, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are at war with each other, and also - attention!
- France, represented by President Emmanuel Macron.
رئيس مجلس الوزراء @MAKadhimi خلال استقباله الرئيس الفرنسي @EmmanuelMacron لدى وصوله مطار بغداد للمشاركة في تمامامامالفرنسي @EmmanuelMacron لدى وصوله مطار بغداد للمشاركة في ممامامالارات
pic.twitter.com/yHFFBKHz9B
- المكتب الإعلامي لرئيس الوزراء 🇮🇶 (@IraqiPMO) August 28, 2021
President of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, King of Jordan Abdullah II, Prime Minister of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Khalid al-Hamad al-Sabah, Emir of Qatar, Vice President of the UAE, as well as foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran.
Various experts in the region have their own interpretations of the meaning and goals of this Middle East summit, but your humble servant has the conviction that the intelligence officer al-Kazimi is well aware of Tehran's plans for the upcoming fall-winter season (about the battle for Karbala, where in the immemorial, ancient times, the Shiite (Iranian) holy Imam Hussein died, and all other Persian reasons to consider Iraq their home), therefore he is gathering a power coalition in case the issue will have to be resolved not through diplomatic means.
Although, of course, the cautious prime minister will prefer negotiating diplomacy to all other methods, he knows his neighbor too well.
And the most beautiful thing about this meeting in Baghdad is that the French President Emmanuel Macron, who arrived there, "assured" the Prime Minister of Iraq that no matter what decision the United States made, France would remain in Iraq for a joint "fight against terrorism."
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So you shouldn't have called the President of the United States Sleeping Joe.
A real soldier continues to monitor the situation even in his sleep.
The United States will leave if you so want to.
Only France will remain “watching” instead of them, gloriously advertising its weapons in the “Syrian” episodes of the cult French TV series “Bureau of Legends”.
“This kind of diplomacy has never been more important than it is now, as we seek to reduce tensions between neighbors and expand cooperation across the Middle East, and Iraq’s leadership on this issue is historic,” reads the White House communiqué on behalf of President Biden.
Such a statement about Iraqi leadership was taken in Mashhad and Tehran, for sure, very hard.
After all, Biden knows how to hurt proud people.
Moreover, the French president went for a walk in Mosul (Iraqi Kurdistan) as if he were at home in Iraq too.
President @EmmanuelMacron in Mosul.
pic.twitter.com/69W2ZUmVgt
- Mosul Eye عين الموصل (@MosulEye) August 29, 2021
This is no longer possible to survive - and now a video conference from the Iranian Foreign Ministry is flying like lightning.
"The martyrs of Iran and the" resistance "and their confrontation with IS - this is what allowed the French president to wander around Mosul in Iraq," said Iranian Foreign Minister Said Khatibzadeh.
So, we are preparing for the autumn-winter season of the series “Troubled in Baghdad”, which, we very much hope, will not transfer to “Afghanistan 2.0”.
* "Islamic State" (IS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.
** "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.